If I wasn't so optimistic about the games we still have a head of us, it would be easy to get frustrated by the games we have lost in the past. Thursday was another one of those games where nothing went quite as the stats of each team have proven to be the norm all year. I guess the saying" thats why we play the games" rings true. But what I do know is, while stats are not always the end all be all in determining who may win a game, they do offer us an actual readable record into the history of each teams tendancies. That is very important, and IS the key factor in determining at least in the long run if we can make money at this game. And we sure can! Last season at this time we were virtually in the same position and we came roaring back to cash in on the season. I have the utmost confidence we do that again and no better time than the present to start.
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Thursday's results : | -5.0 units | |
| 10% house vig on losses : | -0.5 units | |
| Total to date : | -11.0 units |
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Tennessee Titans -3 over St. Louis Rams : Bet 4 units |
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Tennessee Titans -3 over St. Louis Rams : Bet 4 units |
Result: Tennessee Titans 28 : St. Louis Rams 21
While the Rams put up a spirited effort against the Seahawks in their loss last week, its hard to look past how inept they looked on offense being led by backup QB Kellen Clemens. They were unable to get in the endzone and if it weren’t for the Seahawks really shooting themselves in the foot last week, that game wouldn’t have been close. There is also the factor that teams usually do not fare well the week after playing the bruising style of play of Seattle. Teams are just 1-6 against the spread following a game vs the Seahawks. The only team to win was the Cardinals but they benefitted by having extra days off because they played them on a Thursday. The Rams don’t have that luxury. As a matter of fact seeing that their game with Seattle was on Monday, they in fact had a short week. I expect the Rams to continue the trend of flat play this week, especially seeing they are not that dynamic to begin with. The Titans coming off a bye week look to have their QB Jake Locker a bit more rested and healthier after having the week off. Tennessee looked very strong early in the season but have fallen off as of late losing their last 3. This is a perfect game for righting the ship against a team with little offense and the Titans healthier coming off the bye. Tennessee has also played well on the road this season going 3-0 against the spread, I see it being a perfect 4-0 by the end of the day.
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Wasington Redskins/San Diego Chargers take the over total 49.5 : Bet 7 units |
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Washington Redskins/San Diego Chargers take the over total 49.5 : Bet 7 units |
Result: Washington Redskins 30 : San Diego Chargers 24
This game should really provide some fireworks. Chargers QB Phillip Rivers has been on fire all season and ranks only behind Peyton Manning in quarterback rating this season at an astonishing 111.1. Rivers is leading the league in completion percentage at 73.9% and has thrown only 5 Int’s this season. He has also been fantastic at spreading the ball throughout the offense as 5 Chargers have at least 265 yards receiving. I expect the San Diego to come out firing after their bye week as they now get healthier and are jockeying for a wildcard playoff spot. Washington offers up little defense (29th in total yards 397.1 and 31st in points 32.7) against the Chargers passing attack which is ranked 6th in the league. However, the Redskins have been steadily improving on offense as their star QB Robert Griffin III has slowly been rounding into last year’s form after having knee surgery. They currently rank 10th in the league in points per game averaging 24.7, and as long as they can come within a TD of their average, I expect the Chargers to do the rest in running this score up. I do expect the Redskins to put up a valiant effort today, and that means point will have to be scored. With RG III and RB Alfred Morris on the side of Washington, and Phillip Rivers on the side of San Diego, and very little defense in between, the potential for a big score is quite good.
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Baltimore Ravens/Cleveland Browns take the under total of 41.5 : Bet 5 units |
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Baltimore Ravens/Cleveland Browns take the under total of 41.5 : Bet 5 units |
Result: Cleveland Browns 24 : Baltimore Ravens 18
I couldn’t think of a better game for our first under pick of the year to be on. These 2 teams already provided an offensively challenged 14 – 6 game this year, and it is highly expected we get more of the same today. As a matter of fact the last 6 games between these two have all gone under the total. The Ravens defense has been pretty good this season but their offense has been horrible. QB Joe Flacco has not had the season Baltimore expected from the Superbowl MVP, and they have had virtually no running game. While the Browns haven’t been that great on defense, they also have struggled mightily on offense. The Browns are starting their 3rd different QB of the season in Jason Campbell. Although he did start last week and played decent, Campbell is not the answer and the Browns problems at QB have made this team very inconsistent. The only consistent factor is that they do not light up the scoreboard. It won’t be a fun game to watch if you like to see high flying offenses, but it should be a fairly competitive low scoring affair that will bode well for us.
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New York Jets +6 over New Orleans Saints : Bet 3 units |
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New York Jets +6 over New Orleans Saints : Bet 3 units |
Result: New York Jets 26 : New Orleans Saints 20
Most may think I’m crazy siding with the Jets after that 49-9 drubbing they took last week at the hands of the Bengals. Especially going against a Drew Brees led Saints team with only 1 loss this season. Well so far this season the Jets have followed up every loss with a fine showing and a win the next week. That’s nice, but is far from the only reason why I would take the Jets going against the Saints. Its just a more competitive matchup with the Saints being on the road than the betting public wants to see. The Saints are a very public betting team every week do their high profile QB Drew Brees and their potent offense. But they are a far different team playing on the road, and Brees has not nearly been as effective playing on grass as opposed to turf. Despite the embarrassing loss last week the Jets defense has been very good this year and with 25 sacks so far, rank 5th in the league in that category and should put pressure on that vaunted passing attack of the Saints. With very little run game, if the Saints get thrown off a bit of their passing attack, the Jets could and should keep this game close. The Jets also have a good power running game that should do well against an inproved Saints defense, but has been vulnerable against the run. The big key here will be if the Jets rookie QB Geno Smith can keep from turning the ball over. Smith has showed flashes of brilliance along with mind numbing frustrating turnovers. I believe coming off last week’s tough game this young QB bounces back and plays a good game against a defense not nearly as imposing as last week’s Bengal squad. Geno Smith doesn’t need to be great for the Jets to be in this game. If he limits his mistakes and makes some key plays, especially with his legs, I see the Jets in this game to the wire with a chance to steal a victory in the end.
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