Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 17 (Sunday)

We find ourselves in the unenviable position of trying to climb out of a huge deficit to try and save the season. The past few weeks have been as bad as I have ever seen. But believe it or not, it's no time to dispair. We have some really great wagers today that if we can finally catch a break, could put us back in striking distance to pull off a decent run through the playoffs. But we really need today, so the pressure is on. No problem, the beatdown we have taken ends today and its payback time! Actually it would be nice to just finally get paid, and it starts today.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		0.0 units won : -26.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-28.6 units
Total to date :		-39.8 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Detroit Lions +3 over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 3 units	Click Here
	Detroit Lions +3 over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 3 units	Click Here

Result:

This is pretty much what is called a dead game. Two teams playing out the season with no chance of making the playoffs. The Vikings have been dead all year as they have really had a dreadful season, but the Lions just 2 weeks ago looked destined for a playoff spot. Detroit’s heartbreaking overtime loss last week to the Giants sealed their fate for any post season play and has them coming into Minnesota playing for nothing other than pride. The Vegas lines makers have said that this game would have actually been at least a 7 point reversal making the Lions about a -4 favorite had the Lions needed this game for a playoff spot. With this being said, it is clear to me that the Lions are the better team on both sides of the ball today. Especially with the Viking’s superstar RB Adrian Peterson not playing in this game due to injury. So with no Peterson and the Viking’s not being able to stop anybody’s offense, let alone a very potent balanced attack such as Detroit’s, the lean has to go with a Lion straight up win. Getting points for Detroit in this spot just strengthens it to an actual decent bet on an otherwise meaningless game.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Cincinnati Bengals -7 over Baltimore Ravens: Bet 6 units	Click Here
	Cincinnati Bengal -7 over Baltimore Ravens: Bet 6 units	Click Here

Result:

Ravens are fighting for their playoff lives today, this is a must win for them. That is the only factor they have in their favor here, and it won’t mean all that much. The Bengals at home this season are 7-0 straight up as well as against the spread. They have cashed in better than any team in the league when playing at home this year, even better than the famous hometown crushers, the Seattle Seahawks. Cincinnati also has a reason to win this game today as a win today could put them in a position for a first round bye in the playoffs, so don’t look for them to take this game lightly cruising into the post season. This Bengals team has an incredible defense second only to Seattle in allowing only 4.8 yards per play. That does not bode well for an incredibly struggling Raven offense that has not managed to put up more than 22 points in the last 10 games. The Ravens defense has been pretty decent this year in their own right, and has been what has kept the Ravens even close to contention. But Baltimore finds themselves in a position today going up against a defense superior to their own, and an offense absolutely loaded with weapons. Cincy QB Andy Dalton has really stepped it up heading down the stretch not throwing a pick in the last 3 games, and with over 4,000 yards passing and 31 TD’s on the year he has showed that he is a top NFL QB. The Ravens just needing this win will not be enough to get the job done playing in Cincinnati today, they just don’t have the firepower to pull it off. No other team has been able to do it this year, and certainly neither will an anemic Raven offense going up against this powerful Bengal defense that still has a reason to play hard to the end.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	San Francisco 49ers/Arizona Cardinals take the under total 41.5 : Bet 7 units	Click Here
	San Francisco 49ers/Arizona Cardinals take the over total 41.5 : Bet 7 units	Click Here

Result:

This game should prove to be an intense defensive battle, at least to start. The 49ers have an outside chance to get the top seed in the playoff rankings with a win and a Seattle loss, while the Cardinals need a win to at least get a chance at a playoff berth. They would also need help with a Saints loss today. This match up has all the makings of a possible hard hitting low scoring classic. The 49ers have been good this year and it’s primarily due to a very powerful defense. San Fran ranks 5th in run defense and 4th against the pass. They have needed that as their offense has been far less potent this year with a passing attack surprisingly ranked 31st this year. Their offense this season has been mostly built around a potent run game led by RB Frank Gore who has rushed for over 1,100 yards and 9 TD’s. The problem may lie with the fact the 49ers will need to try to run the ball today against the number 1 run defense in the league in this Cardinal defensive squad. This is going to lead to stalled drives and lots of clock getting eaten up. Don’t look for the Cardinal offense to fair much better. With this ferocious pass rush of the 49ers, look for Arizona QB Carson Palmer to get hit a lot today, and very likely toss a couple to receivers in the wrong jersey. Palmer has thrown more multiple INT games, 7, than games in which he has thrown none, 4. So even if Arizona can move the ball some, I can’t see any consistency that would allow much scoring going against this 49er defense. If in the Seattle game the Seahawks jump out to a big lead, you may see the 49ers pull out some starters as they no longer need to risk injury to them as they could not advance their playoff position further. This would only help our cause as their would be virtually no offense on the field for the Niners late in the game. If you like a good smash mouth defensive battle, this should be the game to watch.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Denver Broncos -11 over Oakland Raiders : Bet 10 units	Click Here
	Denver Broncos -11 over Oakland Raiders: Bet 10 units	Click Here

Result:

The Oakland Raiders cannot stop this Bronco offense. It’s that simple. Add on that Denver has something to play for as they need a win to sew up the home field throughout the playoffs, and this game looks to get ugly quick and stay that way. Not that Peyton Manning cares much about personal records over wins, but he also needs just 266 yards to break the single season all time passing record set by Drew Brees. There is no way Denver is pulling Manning out of this game without getting that record. Although, it’s a very good possibility he may get that by halftime as well as add to his already single season record total of 51 TD’s. The Broncos have already beaten the Raiders this year by 16 points and it was only that close by Denver basically doing nothing at the end of the game and allowing 2 late garbage Oakland TD’s. Even if that becomes the case, the Broncos lead should be so much that even with a similar scoring scenario the 2 TD+ lead easily covers. The Raiders while having some glimpses of decent play occasionally this year, have really just lost their way coming down the stretch losing their last 5 and going 1-4 against the spread. Denver has had its issues defensively this year, but the one thing they have done is handle bad teams easily. The Raiders certainly qualify as that. This is a case where even a perfect game from Oakland would not be enough to keep pace with this Bronco offense. In a game they need Denver should step on the gas early and keep it there until the end. This is going to be a route that allows Denver to cruise into the playoffs the number 1 AFC seed.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 16 (Monday)

What can I say, this has been a horrific run the last few weeks. Definitely the toughest stretch I have seen. Some very strange happenings in Sunday's games really hurt us yesterday. Between missed field goals, int's in the endzone, and unbelievably Seattle collecting 4 int's vs Arizona and not only didn't cover, they outright lost....at home! I'm not sure what I did to tick off the football gods, but its been tough going the last couple of weeks. Well, we have a chance to chip away tonight and work on salvaging the season. We have a great chance for a win tonight, and that could start us of on a postive run of epic proportions to equal to this negative one we have hit. There is no quit in us as we move forward with the start of our winning streak!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		0.0 units won : -22.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-24.2 units
Total to date :		-35.4units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	San Francisco 49ers -14 over Atlanta Falcons: Bet 4 units	Click Here
	San Francisco 49ers -14 over Atlanta Falcons : Bet 4 units	Click Here

Result:

This is a huge line as far as NFL standards go, and I think it's not even close to being enough. With Seattle's shocking loss yesterday a 49er win tonight gets them into the playoffs. Now I know just a straight up San Fran win won't win us our wager as there are those 14 points to cover as well, but the 49ers have absolutely destroyed every mediocre to bad team they have played this year. It's being kind to categorize Atlanta as mediocre this year. The Falcons looked to have great potential going into this year as they were loaded with talent, but they have fallen flat with either top talent like receiver Julio Jones going down to injury, or top acquisition RB Stephen Jackson under performing. With no real running game and a passing game stymied by injury, defense this year have been able to contain Atlanta QB Matt Ryan even with future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez as his main go to guy. And this 49er defense is one of the best in the league. The immobile Ryan is going to be in for a long day against this San Francisco pass rush, and with little to no run game expected out of the Falcon offense, this is going to get ugly. The 49ers on the other hand have one of the most balanced offense attacks in the league. With RB Frank Gore already having rushed for over 1000 yards, and dangerous receiving threats all over the field in Boldin, Davis, and Crabtree, and a dynamic, mobile rifle armed QB in Colin Kaepernick, expect a weak Atlanta defense to be run over all night. The 49ers even with all those offensive weapons have still been hard pressed to light it up at times, but never against sub standard competition. When playing teams at or below .500, the 49ers are averaging 33 points per game while giving up just 13. And while is hard to measure emotion in a quantitive sense, the 49ers could be playing their last game in Candlestick Park before moving to there new stadium next season. There should be huge emotion and lots of noise coming from the 49er crowd tonight. This can only make it harder for a Falcon team destined to struggle anyway as the crowd should make it very hard for the visiting underdogs to operate their offense. I feel this is going to be a San Francisco statement game at the price of the Atlanta Falcons.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 16 (Sunday)

Okay, enough is enough. We have gone from on fire to cold as ice the last 2 weeks. It happens, but of course I don't like it one bit. What I do like is our games we have to wager on today. We only have 3 but they are all very strong picks that should get us back into the winning swing again. What's great about these games we have picked is that they are all meaningful games to those playing in them. So with the right side picked, we should see a nice clean sweep of the day. Regardless of the recent downswing, I feel today is the day we rocket back into business. Playoff football is only a couple weeks away, so lets fatten up the wallet up over the next 2 weeks starting with today in anticipation of the post season!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		+8.0 units won : -14.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-7.4 units
Total to date :		-11.2 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Miami Dolphins -2 over Buffalo Bills : Bet 6 units	Click Here
	Miami Dolphins -2 over Buffalo Bills : Bet 6 units	Click Here

Result:

This being a division rivalry game always makes me a little cautious when picking a team in this spot. As the week progressed it became more and more obvious to me that this was a game that was leaning fairly heavily toward the visiting Miami Dolphins side. To start with Miami is just playing fantastic lately and coming off a hard fought win against another division rival, the first place New England Patriots, Miami needs this win very badly to get themselves a playoff berth. Buffalo on the other hand is out of it and is just playing it out. I’m not saying they won’t be giving their best effort, they are after all a professional NFL team, but the Bills aren’t even at full strength, and it’s been reported to expect lots of empty seats in Buffalo today so don’t look for a raucous fan home field edge. Also the Bills come into this game hurting with starting QB E.J. Manuel out and back up Thad Lewis starting. They also lose their star receiver Stevie Johnson as he is missing this game sadly due to a death of his mother. If Miami was going to have any weakness today it would have been in the defensive secondary due to both of their starting cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Nolan Carroll playing hurt, and with rain expected, it could get slick out there. However, with Buffalo going with backup QB Lewis, and their main receiving threat not playing, Miami’s corners may not get tested today. The Dolphins on the other hand have played extremely well in December going 3-0 and are 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games. Dolphin QB has really improved lately and has thrown 8 TD’s with only 2 INT’s this month with and not posting a QB rating lower than 94.2 in the process. This is a dangerous Miami team with a lot to play for. They are in control of their own playoff destiny, they just need to win. Buffalo stands in their way today with very little to play for and as a team depleted of their top talent. This looks very good for a convincing Dolphins win today.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Kansas City Chiefs/Indianapolis Colts take the over total 46.5: Bet 8 units	Click Here
	Kansas City Chiefs/Indianapolis Colts take the over total: Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result:

As long as the weather cooperated this was a game I couldn’t wait to jump on. The only thing that could’ve kept this game under would have been high winds, which was predicted as a possibility early in the week. But as of now they look to be in the 9 to 10 mph range so, game on! The Colts have been a very up and down streaky team this year, but with that being said they have been playing better lately, as well as wrapped up their division already. They went through a stretch where they just could not score in the first half of games, but last week they broke that trend with 20 first half points in their win against Houston. While the Texans are a dreadful 2-12, they still have managed to field a top 5 defense, so scoring on them is nothing to be taken lightly. Colts QB Andrew Luck has been great the last 2 weeks throwing for 6 TD’s and just one pick as well has only been sacked once. The Chiefs defensive pass rush is decidedly worse than it was in the beginning of the season so I see Luck being able to get time to make some plays down field. Both QB’s in this game Luck, and Alex Smith also have good scramble ability that can get key 1st down yardage and are viable threats to run it in on the goaline. But to talk about running that category really belongs to KC’s RB Jamaal Charles. He has been virtually unstoppable this year running for over 1,100 yards so far and being just as effective catching passes out of the backfield. With the Colts defense surrendering almost 129 rushing yards per game, expect huge doses of Charles today, and with his play making ability, expect big time plays from him as well. Also as always its’s a given to expect fine play out of Chiefs QB Alex Smith. Never prone to make mistakes and completing 61% of his passes, he may be the most under rated top QB in the league even though he’s solid as a rock game in and game out. With the Chiefs now putting up points like crazy going over in their last 4 in a row, and the Colts going over in 6 of 8 and 7 out of their last 10, I cannot see this game’s scoring to be even slightly contained to below the total. Should be an entertaining watch for sure.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Seattle Seahawks -10 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 8 units	Click Here
	Seattle Seahawks -10 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result:

Here we go again picking another double digit favorite against the usual rule of thumb. But as usual, it most times is involving the Seahawks at home. Let’s get something straight here, Seattle just does not lose at home…..no matter who comes in there to play. Seattle QB Russell Wilson has NEVER lost in his home stadium in his 2 years playing there. It won’t happen today either, but will they cover this big point spread…..oh yeah. This Seattle home field advantage is absolutely a real part of the Seahawk dominance and a win today will seal the home field for them throughout the playoffs. They want that, and they want it bad. Nobody has been able to come into Seattle and even compete with them. A couple of weeks back the mighty Saints came in and were crushed, and by the way, the crowd set the record as according to the Guiness Book of World Records for decibel output by at sporting event. It is ear splitting for any visiting team to play their and nobody has fared well trying. It also has a lot to do with a Seattle defense that is brutally physical, and an offense led by a young star QB and a beast of a running back in Marshawn Lynch. If the Seahawks win today, as far as I’m concerned, they have written their ticket to the Super Bowl, and they are aware of that too. Watch for an absolute physical beat down of the Cardinals today to match that of what Seattle did to the Saints. The Cardinals are actually a very good team. QB Carson Palmer has played well and has been able to cut down considerably on his turnovers of late. But that was in normal circumstances, today is a totally different world. It doesn’t help that Palmer is dealing with a sprained ankle and his top WR, all pro Larry Fitzgerald is not completely healthy trying to come back from a concussion. Even when healthy Seattle is the one team Fitzgerald has not been able to perform well against with only 7 catches for 82 yards and 0 TD’s in the past 3 games. The Seattle secondary will smell blood in the water today and they will be brutal. I expect at least for this game, for Palmer to revert back to the mistake prone QB he has shown in the past. The noise of the crowd and the physicality of the defense will overwhelm the Arizona offense and cause a complete meltdown. The Seahawk offense which is very potent to begin with, should be helped out immensely by their defense setting up great field position and scoring opportunities off of turnovers. Arizona is in deep trouble today, and I predict a painful blowout.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 15 (Sunday)

Well as hot as we were going into last week, we have been just as cold since then. It happens, and nothing to get too concerned about. As long as there are games left to play, we are in place to make a profit. And this week looks fantastic! I believe I have found some special games this week that will bounce us back to a nice healthy profit margin. Last week, and the start of this week have not been very kind to us, but Sunday's games looks to be served up to us on a silver platter, they're that good. Here's to a positive and prosperous day!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Thursday's results :		0.0 units won : -10.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-11.0 units
Total to date :		-3.8 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	New Orleans Saints -5.5 over St. Louis Rams : Bet 8 units	Click Here
	New Orleans Saints -5.5 over St. Louis Rams : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result:

It’s funny, I have touted most of this season how this great Saints team is not the same team on the road, and at 1-5 against the spread as a visitor, they have proved me right. But that dynamic changes this week for the Saints playing on the road against the Rams. It begins with the fact that they will be playing at St. Louis in a dome in almost the exact same conditions that New Orleans has at their own home. This is nothing like the other games the Saints have had to endure coming into other stadiums and dealing with the different elements that have had a profound effect on what is usually their superior team unable to perform as well. This week all though it is not a neutral field as there still will be a Rams crowd there cheering for their team, there is virtually no home field advantage for the first time going against the Saints. The St. Louis crowd is not known for their loud raucous noise levels or for inhibiting a visiting teams ability to call plays, so we are left with the very basic, which team is better? The answer is of course the New Orleans Saints. Coming off a terrific win against a phenomenal Carolina Panther team last week, the Saints proved that when able to play in their element they are at least in the top 3 of best teams in the league. Led by future hall of famer QB Drew Brees, the Saints are absolutely an unstoppable offense in the control environment of a domed stadium. The Rams on the other hand are a tick below mediocre being led by a perennial back up QB in Kellen Clemens in an offense that has not been able to score more than 13 points the last couple of weeks. This is the ideal spot for the Saints to finally blow open a road game and really roll. They are the far superior team, and finally, for once on the road there is very little standing in the way of them proving it.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Cleveland Browns +1 over Chicago Bears: Bet 6 units	Click Here
	Cleveland Browns +1 over Chicago Bears: Bet 6 units	Click Here

Result:

After the Bears looked like world beaters last week against the Cowboys one may ask why in the world would I take the lowly Browns to cover against them? Well picking winners is about matchups and the Bears just don’t look to stack up that well against a tough Brown defense playing at home. The Bears impressive showing last week had a lot to do with a Dallas defense ranked 31st in the league in giving up 6.2 yards per play, as much as anything Chicago brought to the table. I will say this, if the Bears get any kind of production this week close to what they did last week, they will have sure earned it. This Cleveland defensive squad has registered 37 sacks this season and has one of the best cornerbacks in the league in Joe Haden. What I feel makes this increasingly harder for Chicago is their decision to go with Jay Cutler at QB this week. Although he is normally the starter, when he went down with an injury a few weeks back Josh McCown stepped in and played off the charts amazing. Now coming into Cleveland against a fairly stout defense the Bears are asking Cutler to shake the rust off under fire. I think this is a big mistake. Even with Cutler being a talented QB this situation could break up the continuity that has formed recently in this Bear offense of late that has made them so potent. Meanwhile Cleveland has played much better and more mistake free on offense with Jason Campbell under center, and with wideout Josh Gordan putting up historical type numbers the last 4 games, 36 catches 774 yards and 5 TD’s, this very weak Chicago defense could have their hands more full than expected. I’m sure the public will be all over the Bears this week after that dominant showing against Dallas, but that’s not the real Bears. The real Bears are money suckers for the public with a 3-8-1 against the spread this season, while the Browns are a tough out and have covered their last 4 games as underdogs. Taking the better defense, at home, getting points, I like this one all day long.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Kansas City Chiefs -5 over Oakland Raiders : Bet 8 units	Click Here
	Kansas City Chiefs -5 over Oakland Raiders : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result:

The Chiefs come into this game with a record of 10-3 and I still don’t think they are garnering the respect they truly deserve this season. After going 9-0 to start their season they hit a 3 game skid that had most naysayers touting how they were right about this Kansas City team that was overrated. Well that losing streak has much less value weighted to it based upon the fact that 2 of those losses came against the number one ranked team in the AFC Denver Broncos. Those were hard fought well played games as well. Oakland on the other hand has just not been a very good team this year. They have been weak running the ball, and are being led now by a QB Matt McGloin, an undrafted free agent. He has actually played decent, but got exposed against an above average Jet defense last week. Well, K.C. has a much better than average defense and I look for it to really exploit the Raiders deficiencies on offense. The Chiefs have also looked far more explosive on offense lately with RB Jamaal Charles just running rampant this season gaining over 1100 yards on the ground and being just as dangerous catching passes out of the backfield. Even star wide receiver Dwayne Bowe who has largely been quiet this season has stepped it up lately catching 3 TD’s the last 4 games. These two teams met earlier this year with the Chiefs covering a -7.5 spread in a 24-7 win. I see this game playing out much the same way. Even though this game is being played in Oakland away from the Chiefs Arrowhead Stadium, K.C. has been money on the road covering 5 out of 6 games. The Raiders are a far more game team then their 4-9 record would suggest, but unfortunately it takes talent as well to win in this league. The Chiefs are just better on both sides of the ball. I hope the Chiefs continue to be overlooked even after they trounce these Raiders, it will keep us in the money with future point spreads.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 15 (Thursday)

Okay what we have to do is wipe the memory of week 14 from our memory. It was a bad week, we still managed to get through it with still being positive for the season, but it was just an all out bad week. However, this happens and we cannot dwell on it, same as we can't sit and gloat over the good weeks. There is still more work to be done and still over a month and a half to get this season right where we want it. It starts here tonight as we have 2 nice bets on 1 game. We do not try to make up losses, we just try to compile wins, and I think we got a nice start with tonight's plays. Time to get the ball rolling again!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Monday's results :		+8.0 units won : -10.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-3.0 units
Total to date :		+7.2units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Denver Broncos -10 over San Diego Chargers: Bet 5 units	Click Here
	Denver Broncos -10 over San Diego Chargers : Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result:

On the surface it always bothers me to see double digit point spreads for NFL teams. It's just usually not the best idea to take a pro team giving that many points. Especially a division rivalry game. Its usually the sharps that will take the underdog in this situation and leave the public to play fanboy and just bet up the favorite. Well this time the public has got it right. Actually with rules in the NFL changing to totally aid offenses nowadays, point spreads this big are not the same trap as they used to be. And when you have the most prolific offense in Denver, with the top QB in the league in Peyton Manning, playing at home against a team they already beat on the road by 8 points, I like my chances giving the points. Giving Manning and CO. another look at this pretty poor pass defense of San Diego that is giving up 266.7 yards per game against the mere mortals of the league, lends me to believe Peyton will actually improve on his last performance of over 400 yards passing with 4 TD's against theses Chargers. Now that Denver is running the ball more effectively as well, look for them to exploit San Diego on the ground as well as the Chargers have been poor in that area of late giving up 5 yards per carry over the last 5 games. San Diego has been pretty good on offense this year with QB Phillip Rivers having a fantastic year, but there is not a team in the league that can match this Bronco offense score for score. The only way to get the best of this Denver team is to have a great defense and an offense that can hold the ball for a long time and score touchdowns when they get in the red zone. Well its already been determined that the Chargers defense is nothing special, and last time these two played the Chargers only got a TD in the redzone 1 out 4 times. The Broncos will score a league best touchdown almost 80% of the time they get within the 20 yard line. San Diego cannot match the Denver TD's with field goals and expect to stay in this game. I believe Denver's defense is weak enough to bend and give up some points, but I believe their offense is a an absolutely unmatched force and should slowly space themselves from a Charger team that will have no real answers for a full 4 quarters of Peyton Manning.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers take the over total 56.5: Bet 5 units	Click Here
	Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers take the over total 56.5 : Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result:

For much of what makes the Denver Broncos able to cover a double digit point spread in this game, is what will send this game over the total as well. This is the 2nd meeting between these 2 division rivals and anytime Peyton Manning can get a 2nd look at a defense that he already picked apart for 400 yards and 4 td's, expect even more this time around. Denver seems to be hitting stride now after having a mid season lull where they didn't cover 3 straight, they have now covered 5 of their last 6. And if they cover this 10 point spread like I believe they will that should lead to a lot of points as I also believe the Chargers will put up a few of there own. If there has been 1 knock against these Broncos it would be their defense, as it has been susceptible to giving up points. It has been a reason that Denver's games have gone over 11 out of 13 times this season. And since Peyton Manning has been on this Bronco team they have hit that over a staggering 22 out of 30 times. Tonight should be no different. The Chargers are no slouches in the offensive department and should be able to move the ball against this Bronco D fairly well. Phillip Rivers will lead a very balanced offense to score at least the 20 points they scored in their first meeting. But this over will squarely be Denver's doing. I expect them to have the 28 total points they scored in their game with the Chargers last time in San Diego by halftime. Denver at home is a dangerous team and they are still playing meaningful games so expect the pedal to the metal for at least 3 quarters. By the 4th the lead should be big enough where San Diego may be able to just pad the total with some garbage points as Denver cruises. It's a high total, but by halftime it will look like it should have been much higher.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 14 (Monday)

Well that sure didn't go as planned Sunday. The Patriots didn't even start playing until the last quarter, and the Lions go up 14-0 in a blizzard, look like their cruising, then give up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Not a good day for us at all. But tonight's game is the one that makes the week a winner. This is what I've been waiting for all week. As much as I wanted it to blast us through to a record high week, after yesterday's disappointments it can't do that, but it will turn our week into positive cash flow and that's what's most important. We have 2 large bets on 1 game tonight with one of those being a max bet. So sit back and enjoy tonight as we erase all those bad memories of Sunday.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		+5.0 units won : -14.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-10.4 units
Total to date :		+10.2units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Dallas Cowboys +1 over Chicago Bears: Bet 10 units	Click Here
	Dallas Cowboys +1 over Chicago Bears : Bet 10 units	Click Here

Result:

The Cowboys roll into Chicago tonight looking to keep themselves perched atop the NFC East with a win, while the Bears at 6-6 are just looking for a win to stay relevant in the playoff hunt. I'd say it's probably more of a must win for the Bears but I don't find that as much of a factor in this game as much as the putrid record of 2-9-1 the Bears have against the spread. They also have not fared well against other NFC teams going just 3-6. Every game in just a 16 game NFL season is a must win, so if you didn't win em' before, it doesn't make you any more likely to win em' when the pressure is on. Especially against a Dallas team that dare I say is slightly underrated. Quite opposite to Chicago's record against the spread Dallas has been cashing in quite well at 8-4 and especially good as an underdog at 5-1 against the spread. These teams are built to score as they have potent offenses but are weak on the defensive side. But as well as Josh McCown has done at QB filling in for the injured Jay Cutler, Dallas has a huge edge in the QB department with Tony Romo as he is just lighting it up this year putting up MVP type numbers of over 3,000 yards passing with 24TD's and just 8 INT's. The Bears strength is their offense and that is what has won them their games. But what is to be done when Chicago goes against an offense even more potent than theirs, with an all pro veteran QB in Tony Romo leading the way? I say the Bears will try to match up score for score, but will eventually falter as Dallas is the superior team, they will make mistakes and like always fall short as Dallas pulls ahead in the second half of this game to take control for the win.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Dallas Cowboy/Chicago Bears take the over total 47.5: Bet 8 units	Click Here
	Dallas Cowboys/Chicago Bears take the over total 47.5 : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result:

This game should be quite a fun watch for a while. You have 2 loaded powerful offenses going against each others suspect defenses. I have already told you who I think will eventually win this game, but getting there should be pretty wild. Chicago in years past was known for its strong defensive presence, the "Monsters Of The Midway" was what they were once dubbed. Well those days are gone. They haven't been able to stop anybody this season giving up close to 28 points a game. With a Cowboy team coming into town with the likes of tight end Jason Witten, WR's Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams, Miles Austin, and Cole Beasley, all being led by veteran all pro QB Tony Romo, you can expect those average points surrendered to climb just a little higher tonight. To compliment the ridiculous amount of weapons Dallas has in the passing game, they now have a very strong running game led by RB Demarco Murray going against a Bears defense ranked worst in the league giving up 5 yard per carry. This is a recipe for long drives that can be opened up by long play action passes set up by the run. But don't sleep on this Chicago offense. Even though they are going with back up QB Josh McCown again, he has been very good at the helm. And with weapons like WR's Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery going up against Dallas defense prone to giving up points as well at just over 25 per game, I can definitely see McCown having a good day. Bears running game is pretty good to led by the versatile RB Matt Forte. He should be able to get his rushing yards for as long as they can stay within a score of Dallas. Once Dallas gets a little separation, and I think they will, it will be mostly passing by Chicago. That will lead to big points in this game, but one I feel Dallas will dominate late. Should be entertaining for sure.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 14 (Sunday)

Well we finally had a little slip up this past Monday night but it was just a minor blip to the big picture, and that picture is.....we are kicking ass! The last couple of weeks have really put us in the drivers seat and has gotten our bankroll healthy. This week is certainly predicted to be more of the same. We have 3 games today that I feel great about that should continue our upward trend of cash growth. By the time this week is through we have the potential for the chance to top even our incredible score of this past week. Great plays today, but stay tuned we may have something special to end week 14 tomorrow. But enough of that, lets just win today's wagers and keep on rolling!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Thursday's results :		0.0 units won : -2.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-2.2 units
Total to date :		+20.6 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Detroit Lions +2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles : Bet 7 units	Click Here
	Detroit Lions +2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles : Bet 7 units	Click Here

Result:

This is a game that features quite a bit of talent for both of these teams, which is why both of these teams are firmly entrenched in the playoff hunt at the moment. I believe the difference here is that the Lions to me are a more legitimate team while the Eagles while not a bad team, are more a product of who they have played more than how they play. With the NFC East being a weak division this year the Eagles have enjoyed a fairly soft schedule and yet they still haven’t separated themselves from the pack. As a matter of fact they find themselves trailing in their division behind Dallas largely due to the 17-3 loss they had at the had at the hand of the Cowboys. The other tough team they played, the Denver Broncos, they might want to forget that game as they got crushed 52-20 in that one. I’m not saying the Eagles are slouches, they really seem to have found the answer to their offense with Nick Foles at QB throwing 19 TD’s with no picks since taking over. Also they have the number 2 rushing offense in the league led by their RB LeSean McCoy. But they are meeting a Lions team that can match them pretty much in every offensive category and then some. Although Lions QB Matt Stafford has a moments where he has thrown a costly INT, he has the ability and the poise to overcome his mistakes and make huge plays. Evidence of that came in the Lions dramatic come from behind win against the Cowboys. And with Stafford throwing to arguably the best and most unstoppable receiver in the league in Calvin Johnson, there is never a point in the game or on the field that they are not a play away from scoring. Lions RB Reggie Bush also gives this same dynamic as well every time he touches the ball. The difference in this game could come down to the Lions defensive superiority over Philly’s. Detroit’s defensive front can really get after the passer and should disrupt the Eagles attack enough to cause the Lions to take control of this game. Also bad weather is expected so if there is any slowing of the offensive attack on either side, the defensive edge of Detroit will be that much more magnified. Either way, bad weather or not, Detroit is the better team and should be favored. Getting points for the Lions in this spot makes this a very valuable play for the underdog Lions.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	New England Patriots -10.5 over Cleveland Browns: Bet 7 units	Click Here
	New England Patriots -10.5 over Cleveland Browns: Bet 7 units	Click Here

Result:

It’s going to be a cold and nasty day up in New England for this game, and that is just the way the Patriots like it. As much as Peyton Manning gets criticized for playing poorly in cold weather, Patriot QB Tom Brady is quite the opposite, he thrives in it, and so does his team. Being regarded as maybe the best cold weather QB in the league, Brady will get a chance to prove it again this week. The thing of it is the Patriots have gotten healthier, getting all there important pieces needed to make that incredible offensive machine everyone has come to expect. So as the temps have started dropping, the Pats have just been getting hotter. The last 4 games New England has averaged over 35 points a game, and Brady has thrown for 10 TD’s against only 2 picks. Getting their star tight end Rob Gronkowski back has had a lot to do with that along with WR Danny Amendola getting healthy and a very strong running game. The Browns have a fairly good defense but against this Patriot offense with just too many weapons they will be spread too thin to offer any real resistance. The Browns on the other hand will be hard pressed to match the Patriots offensive firepower as they have struggled to keep a QB on the field with any regularity this season. Jason Campbell is getting the start today and with him being questionable all week due to a concussion, this was their best option. The wheels have fallen off for the Browns as they have lost 6 of their last 7 and their last 3 in a row staright up and aginst the spread. Coming into New England and facing a Patriot team that still has a lot to play for this season as they are still possibly shooting for the top seed and a bye in the playoffs is no way to try to get on track if you’re Cleveland. At home this year the Patriots have been a perfect 6-0 going 5-1 against the spread. This has all the makings of a real blowout, and I am not the least bit concerned of the double digit number the Patriots need to cover. I believe the Patriots hang an easy 40 on the scoreboard and double up the Browns in the process.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Miami Dolphins +3.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers : Bet 5 units	Click Here
	Miami Dolphins +3.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers : Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result:

This game has huge playoff implications for both teams. As of right now they are both on the bubble looking in trying to get a win to get them in position for a wildcard berth. A loss to either team at this point of the season would all but ruin their chances at post season play. Lucky for the Dolphins they are catching the Steelers at a vulnerable time with Pittsburgh’s offensive line being a mess due to injuries. That spells trouble for the Steelers O line that needs to protect against a Dolphin pass rush that has had multiple sacks in 11 out of their last 12 games. Miami has also not given up 300 yards of offense in 5 of their last 7 games. This Miami defense of late would be a handful for any offense to deal with let alone one with severely banged up QB protection like the Steelers’. On offense Miami’s QB Ryan Tannehill has played very good lately and has protected the ball much better. Last week he had his best game of the year against a solid Jet defense throwing for 331 yards, but more importantly the Dolphins protected him well not allowing him to be sacked for the 1st game this season. The Steelers defense is okay but is no longer the elite squad it once was. I expect Miami to make some big time plays with their WR’s Wallace and Hartline. Meanwhile Tannehill while not known to be a great running QB, is actually is pretty fleet of foot and is very capable to run for some key yardage and first downs helping to keep drives alive. While Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is a big strong guy that is tough to take down, I do believe he will have a long day with his pass protection depleted. Look for Big Ben to be scrambling and trying to extend plays when his protection breaks down, while that has worked for him at times, against this defense I can see it leading to some game changing mistakes. I believe Miami is a marginally better team than Pittsburgh at this point in the season, I’m extremely pleased the line here does not agree with me as it puts us in a prime spot.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 14 (Thursday)

What another fantastic result we had in Monday night's game! Not only did we predict a win by Seattle, but we also correctly forecasted the methodical beatdown of the New Orleans Saints. This win is very satisfying because we got it completely right amongst a huge majority of naysayers, and we added another +8 units to our rapidly growing bankroll in the process. It is a great feeling to be sitting at over a 20% profit with another month of regular season games to go, not to mention the post season playoffs. So we march into week 14 of this NFL season full of momentum, confidence, and a fat wallet. Let's kick this week off with more of the same!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Monday's results :		+8.0 units won : 0.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+8.0 units
Total to date :		+22.8 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Jacksonville Jaguars/Houston Texans take the under total of 42.5 : Bet 2 units	Click Here
	Jacksonville Jaguars/Houston Texans take the under total of 42.5 : Bet 2 units	Click Here

Result:

Not sure how excited anybody's getting about this game featuring 2 teams that have combined for just 5 wins this season. The funny thing about it is the Jaguars at 3-9 are pretty much what they were expected to be before the season started. As a matter of fact, after starting the season at 0-8 the Jags despite their overall dismal record have started to exceed some peoples expectations lately. The Texans on the other hand were predicted before the season to be an AFC powerhouse, and after starting the season 2-0 looked like it may be the case. However a horrid 10 game losing streak has destroyed the season for Houston and has them possibly in line for the 1st pick of next years draft awarded to the team with the worst record in the NFL. So it's plain to see why this game does not really instill much excitement to the general public. But believe it or not, regardless of how poorly these teams have played this year there is an advantage to wager on here. And that's just it, we will be betting on the dumpster fire of a game this will be as two teams flail ineptly at one another. They just won't score many points. The Jaguars while playing much better of late, have done that while playing on the road. They are home tonight and they are abysmal at home averaging only 7 points a game and are 0-5 straight up and against the spread. They are at the bottom of the league in yards per game as well as points scored. While the Jaguars are limited offensively, if there is still one thing daunting about this floundering Texan team, it's their defense. Led by their defensive star J.J. Watt this Texans pass rush is good and can mess with this league worst Jaguars offense. The Texans have not fared that well offensively either. Having to replace the totally turnover prone QB Matt Schaub with Case Keenum has helped, but Keenum while not throwing as many INT's has only been completing around 54% of his throws. If the Texans struggle to get their run game going with RB Ben Tate, than look for a lot of 3rd and long situations that will not be converted to first downs. Even the best offensive weapon the Texans have WR Andre Johnson was held in check with only 2 catches for 36 yards 2 weeks ago when he faced this Jaguar defense. Due to the lack of potency in other areas of the Texan offense the Jag's were able to stifle Johnson by double teaming him with a corner and safety. If for some reason the Texans can find a running game, they may be able to move the ball, but with very slow time consuming drives. This should really go a long way in keeping this score down. The only way this game see's 40 points is if their are costly turnovers for points. Otherwise look for a good showing by the Texans defense, and 2 offenses just playing to not lose the game instead of trying to win it.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 13 (Monday)

This has been a very good week for our picks and more importantly our profit. Starting off with a great day this past Thursday going 3-0, then a fair day yesterday going 1-1. However our win Sunday was of greater value then our loss so we still managed a small profit on the day to add to our already stellar week of gains. We have a very strong pick tonight that with a win here would give us our biggest winning week of the season as well as push our profits to this season's all time high. I see no reason why this will not be the case, so let's roll on and cash in!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		+6.0 units won : -5.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+0.5 units
Total to date :		+14.8units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Seattle Sehawks -4.5 over New Orleans Saints: Bet 8 units	Click Here
	Seattle Seahawks -4.5 over New Orleans Saints : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result: Seattle Seahawks 34 : New Orleans Saints 7

This is some Monday night prime time match up. The 9-2 Saints come marching into the home of the 10-1 Seattle Seahawks. Many believe this could be a preview of a January playoff game, and that is a fair assumption. But I wouldn't hold my breath looking for a real tight contest here regardless of how impressive the Saints record is. As I said before the Saints are coming into Seattle's house, that is probably the most relevant point in why this game may prove to be more one sided than the public would like to believe. Vegas opened up this line at -6 to start the week, which I still think was a little light and still had value for a Seattle pick. But since New Orleans is a public team the money pushed the line all the way down to the -4.5 we have now. Saints at home I could see value possibly going the other way, but Saints on the road, thank god for public money pushing lines because we can cash in on that almost every time. New Orleans is by far not the same away from their home stadium. They are 1-4 against the spread as a visitor, and there 2 losses have come while on the road. In Atlanta last week this high powered Saints offense could only muster 17 points and was in a dog fight the whole game with the lowly Falcons until they finally pulled out a 4 point victory.....as a 10 point favorite. Now every match up has its own dynamic and I try to never soley judge a team on how they played against a different team. But I will tell you this, if the Saints don't raise there level of road play to monster heights over what they showed in Atlanta, this Seahawk team will absolutely crush them. The Saints also do not do well as underdogs only going 6-8 in their recent history. This shows that when they don't have the edge for whatever reason, it's usually justified. Looking at the Seahawks at home, well they are just the polar opposite of the Saints on the road. Seattle has won 13 in a row at home covering the spread in 10 of them. Seahawk QB Russell Wilson in his 2nd season, has never lost a game at home. Seattle is by far the most dominant team at home over the last 2 seasons. As much as the home/visitor angle is a strong factor in Seattle's favor, the actual in game bias leans that way too. Let's face it Drew Brees is one of the greatest QB's of all time and the Saints offense is loaded with weapons. But Seattle is possibly the most physically brutal defense in the league and if there is one unit that is built for at least slowing down Brees and Co. its the Seahawk's secondary. Even with losing corner Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond, Seattle's secondary still has huge depth with Richard Sherman and incredible safety play in Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor. I expect the Saints to get some yardage as it's damn near impossible to shut Brees down completely, but I cannot see a scenario where the Saints can light it up against this defense. There in lies the problem, because I can in no way see a scenario where the Saints defense can hold down this Seattle offense. The Saints are very poor against the run and with Seattle's beast RB Marshawn Lynch this will be a huge problem. QB Russel Wilson has run for over 400 yards himself this year as well, which makes him supremely dangerous seeing that he's an excellent passer as well. The Saint's should struggle mightily in trying to contain Wilson and there is no way they will be able to control Lynch. I see this game unfolding as a slow methodical beatdown that by the end the Seahawks soundly defeat the Saints. This game will be a statement game in which it will be pronounced loudly that all playoff games will be going through Seattle this year, and that's a pretty scary thought for anyone not having a Seahawk on their helmet.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 13 (Sunday)

Thanksgiving is a day to give thanks to what you have, and we added lots of cash to that list with our clean sweep of winners for all our picks this past Thursday. These great results have really bolstered an already strong season. It's time now to just pad the bankroll as we look to crush the last quarter of the regular season. This Sunday we have a light slate of just a couple of plays, but that's expected as we already had 3 on Thursday. Quantity does not matter as much as quality, and rest assured, I promise every pick I give has a good shot at paying out. So let's add to our good fortune once again today with some good strong plays. Winning's our business and business is good!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Thursday's results :		+11 units won : 0.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+11.0 units
Total to date :		+14.3 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Chicago Bears/Minnesota Vikings take the over total 50 : Bet 5 units	Click Here
	Chicago Bears/Minnesota Vikings take the over total 50 : Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result: Minnesota Vikings 23 : Chicago Bears 20

While the Bears have a very slim chance to be any type of real playoff contender, and the Vikings are long out of that race, this looks to be a high scoring competitive affair. Chicago usually known for a sturdy defense, has actually depended on scoring points to win games this year as they have really not been able to stop anybody from moving the ball against them this year. This includes these Minnesota Vikings that lost a spirited contest to the Bears in the 2nd game of the season 31-30. The trend of scoring as well as getting scored on has led both of these teams to be perpetual over teams this year. The Vikings have hit the over total 9 out of 11 times while the Bears have cashed in on it 8 of 11. With the Bears giving up 28 points per game, and the Vikings giving up even more at 31, these two division rivals playing each other makes for one hell of a offensive show. The Bears have never been able to stop the Vikings RB Adrian Peterson as he has already surpassed 100 yards rushing in 6 games against them. And with the Bears giving up the most rushing yards in the league look for AP to have a monster day. With Peterson running wild that should take all the pressure off of Vikes QB Christian Ponder, and when Ponder has time and is not under duress, he actually is fairly decent, as evidenced by his 21 for 30 passing day last week with 233 yards and 1 TD. Meanwhile the Bears should have no trouble moving the ball against a Viking defense that gives up 401 yards and as mentioned before over 31 points per game. Bears back up QB Josh McCown has far exceeded any expectation since stepping in for Jay Cutler, throwing for 1,106 yards 7TD’s and only 1 Int. With weapons like TE Martellus Bennett, WR Brandon Marshall, and RB Matt Forte, this offense is really built to exploit this rather weak Minnesota defense. And don’t sleep on either of these special teams. With returner extraordinaire Devin Hester on the Bears side, and wideout Cordarrelle Patterson returning kicks for the Vikings, there is a very good possibility they will be very influential in the scoring, Whether it be them returning kicks for a score, or just great field position, I see them being a strong factor here. Patterson has already returned a kickoff for a TD in their first meeting with the Bears this season. These are two teams that are made for high scoring games, should be a fun game to watch as it flies over the total.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	New York Giants +1 over Washington Redskins : Bet 6 units	Click Here
	New York Giants +1 over Washington Redskins: Bet 6 units	Click Here

Result: New York Giants 24 : Washington Redskins 17

This is a division battle between 2 teams that have fell far short from any pre season expectations. The Giants started off with a miserable 6 game losing streak, and the Redskins have hit the skids big time while their star QB of last year Robert Griffin III has been downright awful. The Redskins are out of it, and while the Giants are still not mathematically eliminated from the playoff hunt, their loss to Dallas has put their chances of post season play on life support. The Giants had a nice little 4 game win streak that gave a glimmer of hope before last week’s loss, and although they did comeback to put up a gutsy performance, it was the first time since their win streak started that they actually faced a QB in Tony Romo that was not a scrub. Fortunately for the Giant’s defense, this week they are facing the RGIII of this year and not last, which means they have yet another subpar QB to take advantage of. If the public is still counting on betting on Washington based on the idea of RGIII being a superstar talent, then they won’t be cashing in many tickets. I’m not saying he won’t someday return to an elite status, but it won’t be this week or even this year. He appears to be somewhat injured as well as mentally shot. He has lost the confidence of a lot of his team and his situation is just a train wreck that does not equate to quality play on the field. Washington does have an excellent run game led by RB Alfred Morris, but the Giants defense has been their strength this year, especially against the run only allowing 3.8 yards per carry. If RGIII can’t get anything going I expect as always that the run game for the Redskins will be taken away, not only because the Giants could stack the box, but New York should be able to score fairly easy against a Redskin defense that allows the 5th most yards in the league. If the Redskins fall behind they will need to abandon the run to try and keep pace, that’s where it should turn ugly. Speaking of ugly, the Giants have struggled with QB Eli Manning turning the ball over, but with the return of RB Andre Brown it has opened up a viable running game again which has taken pressure off Manning and has reduced those costly turnover mistakes. Brown is also a viable passing threat out of the backfield that has added even more depth to the offense. With an outstanding receiving corp made up of Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, and Hakeem Knicks, I expect Manning to finally be able to pass effectively off the run threat and look for some huge plays downfield. I think the Giants keep their very slim playoff hopes alive for one more week at least, and Washington’s troubles continue. Don’t be surprised if RGIII is not long for the starting lineup.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 13 (Thursday)

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We celebrate this fine holiday off of our monster win this past Monday night as the 49ers easily handled the Redskins as predicted. And no Thanksgiving day holiday would be complete without a great day filled with football. Lucky for us the games today look not only to be entertaining ones, but profitable as well. So hopefully all those celebrating this holiday today can enjoy a wonderful feast with their families, while at the same time taking in some great football and raking in the dough. Its a great way to start off week 13 of this NFL season, as we look to add to our already growing bankroll. Enjoy the day!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Monday's results :		+10.0 units won : 0.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+10.0 units
Total to date :		+3.3 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Green Bay Packers/Detroit Lions take the over total 48.5 : Bet 3 units	Click Here
	Green Bay Packers/Detroit Lions take the over total 48.5 : Bet 3 units	Click Here

Result: Detroit Lions 40 : Green Bay Packers 10

A lot of the luster is off this game due to the Packers still not activating their star QB Aaron Rodgers for today, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be some fun. The Lions have their usual high flying act in the QB Matthew Stafford to Megatron Calvin Johnson connection. Also their RB Reggie Bush has been fantastic this year as well, running the ball in addition to catching it out of the back field. Against this Green Bay defense that has struggled lately giving up no less than 26 points in each of their last 5 games, Detroit looks primed to hang a big number on them. But this will not be a one sided affair. Even without Rodgers Green Bay has enough to make some noise against this suspect Lions defense. Specifically their pass defense which has yielded 276.8 yards per game passing this year and 21 TD’s through the air. Packers QB Matt Flynn looks to be an upgrade over the previous back up QB’s Green Bay has recently paraded out there and should be able to open it up enough to allow the dangerous RB Eddie Lacy to get his yards and even out an offense that has struggled recently. Last week with the insertion of Matt Flynn as the Green Bay QB there was a noticeable resurgence in the Packers scoring ability, and with a full week of practice under his belt, I feel that will continue this week. Both teams here have weapons capable of scoring from anywhere on the field, and both teams have defenses prone to allowing that to happen. I like the Packers WR Jordy Nelson to have a huge day today as Flynn’s go to guy, and no surprise on the other side look for Calvin Johnson to put up his normal monster numbers. But also watch for Reggie Bush to maybe have his best day of the year against a weak Packer run defense. It should be even softer today due to the great passing attack of Detroit. I like this game to be entertaining and high scoring, the Packers need this game badly so look for them to take chances, and Detroit has too many weapons to be silenced. Expect the scoreboard to light up like an early christmas tree today.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Oakland Raiders +7.5 over Dallas Cowboys : Bet 5 units	Click Here
	Oakland Raiders +7.5 over Dallas Cowboys : Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result: Dallas Cowboys 31 : Oakland Raiders 24

Well here we are with another traditional Thanksgiving day game with the Dallas Cowboys. It’s funny, the last time the Cowboys both won, and covered the spread on Thanksgiving was 2009 against these Oakland Raiders. Actually both teams have played well against the number this year with Cowboys cashing in to 8-3 against the spread, while the Raiders are the best at getting the money for any team with a losing record at 7-4. With all that being said the Dallas Cowboys are notorious for playing down to the level of their competition with the underdog in the Cowboys last 49 games covering 36 of them. Although Dallas has covered 8 games this year, the one game this year they were big favorites against Minnesota, they failed to cover. Dallas has some immense talent on their team, but with a flawed defense, they have proven that they are not built for blowouts, at least not in their wins. Especially against a scrappy Raiders team that has played the Colts, Broncos, Steelers, Chargers, and the Giants very tough covering each of those games. On paper with QB Tony Romo having a spectacular season and the offense having such potent weapons such as WR’s Dez Bryant, Terrence Williams, Miles Austin, and TE Jason Witten, not to mention their dynamic RB Demarco Murray, it would be hard pressed for the average onlooker not to want to throw money down on these Dallas Cowboys. Most times it’s not a bad bet, but today it is. Remember Dallas with the potent offense, has been impotent on defense. They are giving up a league worst 432.2 yards per game, and besides a decent showing last week against the Giants (a team who’s 4 game win streak was predicated on not facing 1 true starting QB), the Cowboys have gotten lit up as much as they have done the lighting. And while most of the public is unaware of this Raider team be rest assured while not well known, they are playing above public expectation. That makes them valuable in this spot. Raiders rookie QB Matt McGloin is getting his 3rd straight start and has been very good in the first 2 throwing for 544 yards and 4 TD’s with only 1 pick. And with RB Darren McFadden sidelined Rashad Jennings has proven very quietly to be a star rushing for 553 yards on 109 carries with 2 TD’s, as well as combing for over 100 yards rushing and receiving in each of the last 3 games. These Raiders should prove to be a tough match up for the Cowboys to hold down. Dallas will be able to score, but so will Oakland for sure. This will be a very competitive game that should be close to the end, probably a shock to everyone but us. And if Dallas slips up and turns the ball over, watch for more than just a cover by these Raiders.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Pittsburgh Steelers + 2.5 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 3 units	Click Here
	Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Baltimore Ravens: Bet 3 units	Click Here

Result: Baltimore Ravens 22 : Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What a game this is. Two division rivals fighting it out for a playoff berth with a history of playing smash mouth football in close games. What a great way to finish out a Thanksgiving day slate of games. As much as this game proves to usually be a close hard fought game, I really favor the Steelers in this match up today. The arrow seems to be pointing up on Pittsburgh's season at the moment while the Ravens seem to still not be able to find the consistency needed to really make a run here. It really has a lot to do with Baltimore’s lack of putting together a reliable offensive game. Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been wildly inconsistent and has already thrown 14 Int’s this year which is more than he has thrown in any of his previous 5 seasons, and has thrown at least 1 pick in each of his last 4 games. Their ground game has been pretty dismal as well, considering they have 2 talented RB’s back there in Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. Both backs have averaged less than 3 yards per carry and have only rushed for more than 50 yards in just 2 games each. Good thing the Ravens still have a formidable defense that is 7th in the league in points allowed otherwise this Baltimore team may not even be in the playoff contention. But they will have their work cut out for them as Pittsburgh comes into this game off of 3 straight wins and having a red hot QB in Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has thrown for 798 yards, 7TD’s and just 1 INT during this current 3 game winning streak. The Steelers also seem to have found out how to pass protect during this run as well giving up just 5 sacks which is probably the biggest key in their resurgence this season. The Steeler D has also run hot and cold, but with a flawed offense such as Baltimore’s I expect to see the Pitt defense that has given up less than 300 yards in 6 games this year. I like this game no matter what to be a close hard fought game that I will give a slight edge to the Steelers on. Now if you’re going to give me a few points on top of that, well I think we have found a good bet with Pittsburgh here.