Week 10 proved to be a stellar week for us. We went 5-2-1 0n the week with a +14.5 unit profit. Things are rounding out just right for us now as we are in the black for the season and we still have so much more to go to keep piling on the profit. This past week in two separate games we called for a winless team to prevail and we were correct. Not to mention we had a max bet out there and collected on it with ease. Yes, the ball does bounce funny ways sometimes leaving us on the short end, but more times than not the key aspects of our predictions play very closely, and that's what gives me great confidence that there is still far greater money to be made on this season. The teams while still full of parody are making it more obvious as this season is now in the midst of full stride, where the odds should be laid for our wagers. We have a nice little play tonight that should set us up for another fine week.
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Monday's results : | +4.0 units won : 0.0 units lost | |
| Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses : | +4.0 units | |
| Total to date : | +1.0 units |
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Indianapolis Colts -1 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 3 units | Click Here |
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Indianapolis Colts -1 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 3 units | Click Here |
Result: Indianapolis Colts 30 : Tennessee Titans 27
Normally a home team laying the points is a spot where you might want to take them. I don't see it in this case. I know the Colts are coming off their worst home loss in 20 years at home 38-8 against the Rams in an embarrassing game last Sunday. It has left much of the public wondering if these Colts are for real and it has pulled back a lot of money on them lowering the opening line from -2.5 to -1. To me that is perfect. This is one of those times where the "square" money is going straight on the underdog affecting the line based on a fluke ridiculous bad game by Indy. And yes it was a fluke and odds are will not be repeated against a team like the Titans. The Colts committed 5 turnovers last week and QB Andrew Luck threw 3 Int's. That's just not going to happen again, not to mention since it did, the focus on them not turning the ball over this week should be uber amplified. And what of this Titan's team? They come into this game losing to previous winless Jacksonville as double digit favorites. Well we knew that line was publicly inflated as we bet on that and won, because the Titans are just not that good, and especially not in their division as we pointed out last week. The major problem being for Tennessee now is, they have lost their starting QB Jake Locker once again, and is being replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now Fitzpatrick is actually not a huge downgrade as he can be a decent QB, but with the Titans ground game struggling, RB Chris Johnson only had 30 yards rushing on 12 carries against the Jaguars, look for Indy's defense to pressure Fitzpatrick who is prone to turnovers when hurried and hit. And while Tennessee's defense has actually been pretty good, they have been downright awful in redzone defense allowing 17 Td's out of 26 scoring plays. That is 3rd worst in the league. The Colts Andrew Luck has missed injured star receiver Reggie Wayne, but T.Y. Hilton has proved to be quite a go to guy and a true up and coming star in his own right. With Luck's mobility and arm I believe Indy will find themselves in the redzone fairly often, and with that being the case, for the same reasons, I feel they will find themselves in the endzone fairly often as well. Although I don't expect a high scoring game I expect the Colts to take far more advantage of any scoring opportunities they get. And I do not expect them to turn the ball over again like they did last week. The Titans may be able to keep the score manageable, but they just don't have the firepower to match what should be a supremely focused Colts team this week.
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