We did it again, pulling out another win this past Thursday night as the Colts won and covered against the Titans. That just adds to our total as we are now steam rolling and just picking up momentum with every game. After a stellar week 10, week 11 has started off with this fine win, and we look to add to it today. We don't have a real big day on tap today as a lot of the games are not showing real wager value. There are a few however with one being quite valuable. Don't get me wrong there are some really fine games being played this week that should be very entertaining, but this week the better bet is to lay off of most of them. I do love a good football game, but I wouldn't lay one cent on a game I didn't think I had an advantage on regardless of how popular a game might be. That is one of the biggest differences between straight up gamblers and us that like to wager with an advantage. The gambler likes to put money down to make a game that more exciting, I do it only for profit. If there is none to be made on a game, then so be it I sit it out. With all that being said we still do have at least a few games today to cushion our now profitable bankroll, so let's pad the wallet!
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Thursday's results : | +3.0 units | |
| 10% house vig on losses : | 0.0 units | |
| Total to date : | +4.0 units |
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New York Jets -1 over Buffalo Bills: Bet 4 units |
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New York Jets -1 over Buffalo Bills: Bet 4 units |
Result: Buffalo Bills 37 : New York Jets 14
There's been a lot of talk lately wondering if the Jets can actully be a playoff caliber team this year. There success this season has been a shock to almost everybody, including me. But if the playoffs were to start today the Jets would be in as an AFC wildcard. Well the playoffs don't start today, but it is the day for the Jets to prove they really are a team worthy of consideration. They have yet to win 2 games in a row and they need to come up with some consistency to prove they belong in the conversation as a relevant team. The stars have aligned for them this week to at least get that 2nd win in a row. The Jets who have really been offensively challenged at times this year with very few weapons to help out there rookie QB Geno Smith, get much better today with the return of wide receiver Santonio Holmes, and tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. Geno Smith while showing some real potential has had some moments of bad decision making and forcing the ball too much causing costly turnovers. With the addition of their top receivers coming back that should open up the field more for the Jets young QB and allow him to spread the ball more and really bolster the already strong running game as well. The Jets have also signed future hall of famer safety Ed Reed this week and regardless of what many think he has left in the tank, this is a great fit for the Jets secondary. Head coach Rex Ryan was Ed Reed's defensive coordinator while in Baltimore and they have a great chemistry that allows Reed to fall into the flow of this New York defense immediately. On Buffalo's side they have some problems. They have played poorly lately losing their last 3 straight up as well as against the spread. They have also played poorly at home going 1-4 ATS this year. To make matters worse they lose their 2 best receivers Stevie Johnson, and Robert Woods to injuries for today. And while the Bills have a very nice running game led by the tandem of RB's C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, without their most valuable receivers available today, that Jet defense which ranks 1st in the league against the run only allowing 73.8 yards per game, should be able to key on stopping the run today fairly easy. This game won't prove the Jets are a great team, what it will prove is they can win 2 in a row and that they are actually a good team.
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Washington Redskins/Philadelphia Eagles take the over total 53 : Bet 8 units |
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Washington Redskins/Philadelphia Eagles take the over total 53 : Bet 8 units |
Result: Philadelphia Eagles 24 : Washington Redskins 16
Ok this is an interesting game between two NFC East division rivals. Both teams have been wildly inconsistent this year as far as wins and losses go, but there is one thing that these teams can do and that is score and be scored on. These teams met in week 1 with the Eagles winning that one 33-27 after almost blowing a 33-7 lead. A lot has changed since that week one meeting and it all points to the score in this match up easily matching and likely surpassing that of their first game. First off the Redskins come into this game going over in their last 4 games. Their running game has been excellent led by Alfred Morris who has averaged 130 rusing yards the last couple of games, which has really opened it up for RGIII's passing attack. In those games with Morris running so effectively, RGIII has averaged b286 yards a game at over a 68% completion rate. He has shown much more confidence in that surgically repaired knee in each passing game which has led the average points scored in the last 4 games by Washington to be 30.8. Even better for our wager is the fact that the Redskin defense has been giving up 36 points a game during that same stretch. That is great news for an unrelenting Eagles offense that can score points fast and in bunches. Eagle QB Nick Foles has been absolutely spectacular since taking the job over from Michael Vick throwing 16 TD's with no Int's. Add to this that Philly also has the league's leading rusher in LeSean McCoy with 932 yards and this game looks like its got offensive explosion written all over it. And while the Eagles are not known for their defense to begin with, they have multiple injuries throughout the whole starting defensive squad that should soten up their D even more. Look for this game to start off with some scoring and as it goes on just gain momentum. It should stay competitive so expect both teams to put up points. This should fly over well before the final gun.
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Denver Broncos/ Kansas City Chiefs take the over total 49 : Bet 3 units |
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Denver Broncos/Kansas City Chiefs take the over total 49 : Bet 3 units |
Result: Denver Broncos 27 : Kansas City Chiefs 17
This is one of the marquee match ups of the day. The 9-0 Chiefs come in to take on their 7-1 division rivals. Oddly to some the Broncos are a big favorite against their undefeated foe. Well their is a reason for this. And it really is what led me to going with the over pick in this game. While the Chiefs have been perfect this year and have shown a very good defense, they have done it against teams with losing records. I believe their 9-0 record to be somewhat a fraudulent representation of what they really are. Today their competition steps up to a whole new level with the Denver Broncos. Denver led by QB Peyton Manning with 33 TD's vs just 6 int's, are an offensive machine like no other. They have no less than 4 viable if not star receiving threats and with RB Moreno now running like an all pro, this team is virtually unstoppable, or at least going to score 30 points a game. The Chiefs while usually running a conservative offense, will have to pick it up to keep pace with this Bronco offense. Thankfully the Denver defense is very vulnerable and is giving up about 26 points a game. The Chiefs do have a very nice QB in Alex Smith while not dynamic in his downfield throwing, rarely turns the ball over and has good mobility to gain key yardage and first downs. The main weapon of K.C. is of course their all purpose back Jamaal Charles with over 750 yards rushing as well as 47 pass receptions he leads the team in both categories. Charles is capable of breaking a huge play every time he touches the ball and I expect him to play a big part in putting up points for the Chiefs today. Also worth noting is Denver has been prone to giving up the sack lately and the Chiefs are very stout pass rushers. Manning is dealing with a high ankle sprain today so look for the Chiefs to try to put heavy pressure on Manning to test his leg early. K.C. may actually find scoring opportunities on defense today to help their cause. I think that overall Denver will be the ones pushing the pace of this game, but I look for Kansas City to answer at least enough to push this total over and compete for most of the game.
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