Well that sure was a fine Sunday for us! We won 3 out of 4 with the only loss coming by a half of a point that caused us to lose a damn close under bet. I never like to look back and say we could have won if this or that happened in those close call losses because it can go the same way for a close call win. Its more important that the game analysis was close and from there the odds should favor us in the long run. I am however pleased with the 8.5 unit win yesterday. But no time to rest on our good day's work, we have a play tonight to add to this fine week. A win tonight puts us in the money, right where we belong.
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Sunday's results : | +14.0 units won : -5.0 units lost | |
| Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses : | +8.5 units | |
| Total to date : | -2.5 units |
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Green Bay Packers -10.5 over Chicago Bears : Bet 5 units | Click Here |
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Green Bay Packers -10.5 over Chicago Bears : Bet 5 units | Click Here |
Result: Chicago Bears 24 : Green Bay Packers 20
I may have to stop saying how I don't favor taking double digit point spreads in the NFL because I find myself taking yet another one. Green Bay is really what the sharp guys would call a "public" team as the majority of the average bettors love to put their money down on them regardless of the line. This most times skews the line to which is most times the favorite, and results in a wager of little value because its more a determination of amount wagered on the team not the value they have in the matchup of the game. This is what the Vegas wiseguys calls "square" bets and is usually a nice play for the bookmakers. I mention all of this as this game, with these teams, and this line, have all the makings of a poor "square" bet. But I assure you it is not. Based on what is found in this game, this line is under inflated and this time its the sharp guy that is taking the favorite. It's simple really, Green Bay does not lose and generally always covers against their division rivals. Since 2011 the Packers are 13-2 against the spread vs the NFC North. And against the Bears Green Bay has covered the spread the last 5 games and won the last 6. The trend in the Packers covering in their division is strong, but the actual match up in these teams today really seals the deal. The Bears would have had a handful keeping up with this powerful and now supremely balanced Packer offense even if their starting QB Jay Cutler was playing in this game, but of course, he's not. Chicago back up QB Josh McCown while actually playing decent in his game against the Redskins, will have his hands full with a much improved Packer pass defense. Over the last 5 games the Packers have only allowed 203 passing yards per game, and their pass rush has recorded a respectable 20 sacks this season. Green Bay has had to deal with their share of injuries as well this year, but QB Aaron Rodgers is having another stellar season and wide receiver Jordy Nelson has stepped up and has filled the role as the go to receiver admirably. Green Bay now also adds to their passing attack a very potent run game with rookie RB Eddie Lacy pounding the ball like an all pro and veteran James Starks adding depth to the running back position. The Bears defense is hurting and has had serious problems against the pass this year. The Bears have allowed more yards per pass this year than any team in the league. That is a very scary stat having to come into Green Bay and facing one of the most prolific passers there is in Aaron Rodgers. The Chicago defense will not be able to get off the field and in turn should wear down mightily come the second half. Green Bay will dominate on both sides of the ball and look for the Packers to steadily pull away in a rout of their division rival Bears tonight.
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