Aramon's 2014 Super Bowl Pick

Here it is, the day every NFL fan waits for every season.....the Super Bowl! While this season has not gone the way we would have liked, I look at today as a holiday that we can enjoy and cash in on at the same time. The big parties, the commercials, the A list entertainment, and then the actual game itself. Aside from all the hyperbole and hooplah, this year looks to be a good game. While it would be impossible to make up the whole season deficit in just this one game, we get a chance to add to the festivities with a nice win to end the NFL season. So sit back, eat and drink up and enjoy the biggest 1 day sports spectacle in the world! Let's just add a nice little cash in the pocket today for the cherry on top of a great game and even greater day.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Total to date : -28.7 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Seattle Seahawks +2 over Denver Broncos: Bet 6 units	Click Here
	Seattle Seahawks +2 over Denver Broncos: Bet 6 units	Click Here

Well here it finally is folks. The biggest day in any sport in the world...The Super Bowl!. After 2 weeks of build up and hype the game finally gets played today with the winner claiming the title of NFL champion. It would be easy to have been sucked in to all the talk these past couple of weeks regarding these teams, as every Tom, Dick, and Harry, (and Harriet), has an opinion on the outcome of this game. Most of them, really just fans or casual observers. Even some of the "expert" analysts fall into many of the traps of public frenzy bias. None bigger has been the absolute love fest going on for Bronco QB Peyton Manning. While he does deserve the biggest of kudos for probably the greatest season an NFL QB could have, and he is class personified off the field, while being an absolute football icon......this Seahawk defense doesn't give a rip about any of that. In the whole build up of this game it has been repeatedly stated how this powerful high scoring superstar led Bronco offense is like nothing Seattle has faced this year....which is largely true. On the other hand, the Broncos have never faced a defense like the one that stands before them today either. Denver has only faced 1 top 10 defense all year, today they face number 1. It's a case of #1 offense vs. #1 defense today. In Super Bowl history this has happened 4 times with the top defenses prevailing 3 out of the 4 times. A lot has been said about this being a cold weather Super Bowl and how that may effect Manning negatively. Well with unseasonably warm temps and little wind expected in New Jersey today, weather should not be a factor. What will be is a ferocious Seattle pass rush that can pressure without bringing extra men in, and the best secondary in the league led by the best cornerback in the league, Richard Sherman. Even if Manning gets the ball out quick, which I'm sure he plans to to avoid the rush, Seattle's big punishing secondary will be stuffing this all pro list of Denver WR's at the line which I believe will wreak havoc on the quick passing game. With the Seahawks ability to cover if the short game is taken away from Manning you will see that Seattle pass rush get to him, and that would be disasterous for Denver. Denver has only averaged 25 points a game in the playoffs which is far below their season average and that is due to controlling the ball with the run as well as Manning's arm. That won't be a good plan against Seattle. The Seahawks want a close low scoring game, if they get lit up early and fall behind that would be a worst case scenario for them as they are not built for a shootout against the best QB in the league. While the Seahawks are the number 1 team in the league in not giving up passing yards, they are not quite as good ranking 12th in giving up rushing yards. But against the Broncos I don't see a case where they could win this game running the ball, they need to pass and I don't think they can without consequence. Seattle on the other hand can keep the ball all day long with their ground game led by RB Marshawn Lynch and even with the legs of QB Russell Wilson who is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. While Seattle's offense has not been all that dynamic lately, they have also played a much tougher schedule with far tougher defenses in Carolina, San Francisco, and even the Saints. In today's game I look to see Russel Wilson make some big plays off an effective running game. Seattle, not Denver should control the clock today, and keeping the potent Bronco offense off the field is the best defense of them all. Seattle also has an edge on special teams in the return game so look for that to come into play more than has been talked about. Denver has struggled with turnovers in this area while Seattle has excelled. Overall a good defense in the past has usually prevailed over a good offense. But even with the rules nowadays favoring the offense, the officials in the playoffs have had a hands off let them play attitude which will help the Seattle secondary as I think they will be mugging the Bronco receivers all day. I think the biggest surprise coming out of this game will be how well Seattle's offense does more so than how their defense slows down Peyton and Co. I usually never predict scores but since this is the Super Bowl I will give it a shot. Big day for Russell Wilson on the ground and the air, and some forced errors by the Bronco offense gives Seattle the championship 31-24.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: AFC/NFC Championship Round

Well we did it, we had a very strong and profitable week last weekend to put us back in contention for a season win. We fell just a 1 point shy in the Seahawks/ Saints game from having a perfect weekend and totally erasing all deficit. No matter, we did well and we move on to some great games today. We actually have 3 plays on 2 games today which if all goes as predicted will bring us into the Superbowl with no deficit. So every week has been big for us lately as we are making a big surge in our comeback, but none is bigger than today's games. We have won 3 weeks in a row and we must do it again. It's NFL playoff football and damn is it an exciting time! Now let's cash in on it once again!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		+18.0 units won : 0.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+18.0 units
Total to date :		-15.2 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	New England Patriots +5.5 over Denver Broncos: Bet 7 units	Click Here
	New England Patriots +5.5 over Denver Broncos: Bet 7 units	Click Here

Book	Line	Sign-up
	New England Patriots/Denver Broncos take the over total 56.5: Bet 3 units	Click Here
	New England Patriots/Denver Broncos take the over total 56.5: Bet 3 units	Click Here

Result:

What a game. The 2 most iconic quarterbacks in the league facing off in the AFC championship to see who goes to the Superbowl....It's Manning/Brady bowl once again. These great QB's come into this game leading teams that have taken far different paths to get here. The Manning led Broncos just torched through the competition this season with a high flying offense that scored big which subsequently led Peyton to single season records in TD passes and most passing yards for a season. The Brady led Patriots on the other hand just ground out the season overcoming personnel changes in what seemed to be week to week. Brady struggled early with a brand new corp of receivers and without injured star TE Rob Gronkowski. But the Patriots adjusted on the fly every week and came up with a way to win through all the adversity. Patriot head coach Bill Belichick has been called a genius in the past, but this season may just have been his finest coaching job of his career. It's no easy feat to go into Denver and beat that offensive beast at home but if anyone has the answer it's the Patriots. I think both teams are going to get their points today. While Denver is almost unstoppable with Peyton's offense on the field with what seems like an endless supply of weapons, the Bronco defense is susceptible to giving up points. These teams met in the regular season with the Patriots pulling off a stunning come from behind win 34-31. The Patriots spotted the Broncos a 24 point lead in that game largely to some real sloppy play that the Broncos could capitalize on, I don't see that happening again. Denver sacked Brady 3 times in that game, 2 coming from Denver's star LB Vonn Miller, well he's out for this game and I don't see any real pressure coming at Brady today. Couple that with the emergence of Patriots RB LaGarrete Blount who has been an absolute beast running for 643 yard the last 3 games. This should open up huge opportunities for a Patriot offense that while not having as many receiving threats as Denver, will have favorable match ups due to the attention this pounding running game brings. Which brings me to the best defense New England has against the Bronco powerhouse offense, keep them off the field. While the Patriots are a better defensive unit than the Broncos, they will be hard pressed to stop Denver's multiple weapons. So the Patriots run game and play action passing off it should keep Manning on the sideline enough for New England to rack up not only scoring, but all important time of possession. I think both teams will score quite often today, but I think the Patriots having the ability to hold the ball longer than the Broncos will be the key to a close but high scoring affair that should favor the Patriots.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	San Francisco 49ers +3.5 over Seattle Seahawks: Bet 5 units	Click Here
	San Francisco 49ers +3.5 over Seattle Seahawks : Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result:

Many would think it crazy to bet against the Seahawks at home, especially when playing a team that they already handily beat this year up in Seattle 29-3. Well this is not the same 49er team that Seattle beat in week 2, as well as the Seahawks are a bit different as well. The 49ers come into this game the hottest team in the NFL. And for all the talk of the bruising Seattle defense, San Fran brings it into this game as well, maybe even a tick better. Seattle may have the edge in the defensive secondary, but in every other facet of defense the 49ers are just plain brutal. Their pass rush cannot be matched even by Seattle's D, and the speed and skill of the Niner linebacking corp is unmatched. The glaring weakness that has shown up for Seattle lately has been an anemic offense. Seattle QB Russell Wilson has struggled to get anything going recently and only managed to throw for 103 yards last week against a Saint's defense that will look like a walk in the park compared to what's coming at him today. It's not all of Wilson's fault that the pass game has suffered, his receiving corp while not bad at all, does not strike fear in any of the top defenses. Without getting any separation at the line these Seahawk receivers in Tate, and Baldwin will struggle forcing Russell Wilson into some very uncomfortable and problematic situations. Look for this physical 49er defense to jam these receivers all day, which should allow them to load up against the run and at least slow down the hard charging Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch. The San Francisco offense on the other hand just has more weapons and has a QB in Colin Kapernick that is playing his best football of the season. In their first meeting Kaepernick was without his favorite safety valve receiver Michael Crabtree, this is not the case today. With Crabtree now back Kaepernick has been able to run a more potent offense and it has seemed to reboot his confidence. If there ever were any receivers that may cause this physical Seattle secondary some trouble it would be the likes of San Fran's Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis and Crabtree. Boldin may just be the toughest WR in the league that fears no one and can go up and catch the ball with anyone and is not afraid to come across the middle and take the big hit. Davis on the other hand is a deep threat that is a match up problem for anyone. The 49ers may also have the one RB in Frank Gore that is just as bruising a runner as Seattle's Lynch is. With more offensive weapons, and an equally good ground game, the 49ers are going to score in Seattle today. The Seahawks defense can keep them in most any game, but if their offense stays stagnant like it has in recent weeks, the 49ers will put it to them. Against this 49er offense it is important for the Seattle defense to get off the field and not allow sustained drives. If they don't, even this bruising Seahawk D will be spent late in the game and get beat. I expect a hard hitting defensive battle for most of the game, but look for the 49ers to have just a little more offensively.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Divisional Playoff Round (Sunday)

Saturday's games saw us go 1-1 but unfortunately had us losing the more heavily weighted wager. The Seahawks completely dominated the Saints for a 16-0 lead and then just sat on it doing nothing up until the final minutes of the 4th quarter which led to us falling short on our bet by 1/2 a point. Tough to swallow but that's how it goes. The second game went exactly as predicted which was a nice lift after the Seattle disappointment. There was no way the Colts were going to pull any miracle against the Patriots like they did the previous weeks against the Chiefs. Unlike the Seahawks, once you let the Patriots get an edge on you, they just bury you. Colt's QB Andrew Luck made too many mistakes against a team that knows how to capitalize on them. It was a good win for the Patriots and us as well. Today is basically the season for us. We are laying big time wagers today on what I think are fantastic opportunities. A sweep of these games today are absolutely needed to get us in striking distance of a positive result for the season. After today we only have 3 games left to get there....I like our chances. But it starts today as I have supreme confidence in these plays that bring us right back.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Saturday's results :		+4.0 units won : -8.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-4.8 units
Total to date :		-32.2 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	San Francisco 49ers pk over Carolina Panthers: Bet 10 units	Click Here
	San Francisco 49ers pk over Carolina Panthers: Bet 10 units	Click Here

Result:

These 2 teams met up earlier this year with Carolina edging the Niners 10-9 in a real defensive battle. In that game Carolina established they really are a defensive force to be reckoned with and they really made 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick look lost. He had the worst game of his career throwing for only 91 yards, no touchdowns and was sacked 6 times and threw an interception. The 49ers also played great defense and shut down Carolina as well only allowing them to score 10 points on the day. Based on just that I can see why they have this game as an even handicap, but there is much more to this game. San Francisco marches into Carolina a far different team then what they were in that week 10 loss. First off Kaepernick lost his star receiver TE Vernon Davis for the whole second half when he went out with a concussion. Also Kaepernick's go to receiver of a year ago Michael Crabtree was out for that game. Kaepernick will have both of them available and healthy to him today and should give him a much greater chance to carve up Carolina's zone defense that is used to keep him in the pocket. Carolina may not like the results of Kaepernick having to use that laser arm today. If they adjust to it, watch for huge gains on the ground as well. As well as the 49ers played defense in the first meeting with the Panthers, it was with very limited play of their star outside LB Aldon Smith as it was just his first game back from an indefinite leave of absence. Carolina will be hampered offensively today as their star WR Steve Smith is really struggling with an injured knee. Carolina QB Cam Newton is as dangerous running threat as there is in the NFL, but with this strong 49er defense at full strength, I expect them to contain him in the pocket and force him to beat them with his arm. This should prove problematic as Newton as great as he's played is not a very accurate passer, and without a healthy Steve Smith to target look for Carolina's offense to make some mistakes. The 49ers come into this game a far better team than they were earlier in the season. I think they prove that with a big win in Carolina today that may not be the same defensive battle of week 10.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	San Diego Chargers +8 over Denver Broncos: Bet 8 units	Click Here
	San Diego Chargers +8 over Denver Broncos : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result:

The Denver Broncos are an absolute offensive juggernaut led by their QB Peyton Manning's record setting year. There has been only one team that has been able to slow them down this year and it's the one match up Denver should not want to see in trying to make a super bowl run....it's these San Diego Chargers. This will be the 3rd time these teams meet this year and they go into it an even 1-1. More telling about this match up is that Denver has not only been unable to separate themselves from the Chargers on the scoreboard, San Diego held the Broncos to their lowest scoring total of the year. San Diego has the look right now of last year's champs the Baltimore Ravens that got hot at the end of the season and rode a tide of momentum through the playoffs to win it all. I'm not predicting this will happen with this Chargers team, but they have won 5 games in a row basically needing every single one to squeak into the playoffs and then dominate a very good Bengals team last week in the 1st round of the playoffs. They have played excellent under pressure and I don't see that changing today against a very suspect Denver defense. There are 2 key variables to this game that I feel work in San Diego's favor, one obvious, another not so much. Chargers coach Mike McCoy was the offensive coordinator over in Denver with Peyton Manning. If anyone knows how that Broncos offensive machine ticks it's him and it has showed as the Chargers with a less than stellar defense has held Manning an CO. in check both games with 28 and 20 points respectively. I think another key thing to watch for in this game will be the officiating. While I wouldn't base a real heavy weight of regard on it, it still should be recognized that the crew officiating this game are known for keeping the yellow flags in the pocket and letting the teams play, especially where the receivers and defensive backs are concerned. This is the same crew that had Tom Brady screaming in fits at them when they wouldn't call pass interference in the Patriot loss to Carolina this year. This may come into play as Denver is loaded with receivers for Manning to hit, if the Charger secondary is allowed to get physical with them it could slow down the Bronco offensive game. The Broncos have not been able to dominate the Chargers yet this season and I don't see it happening today either. This game may come down to the wire. Also to be noted, San Diego has historically thrived playing in Denver with an 8-1-2 record against the spread there in their past 11 games. I expect a very competitive game today.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Divisional Playoff Round (Saturday)

We pulled out a small win for the first week of the playoffs last week, not nearly what we hoped for, but at least we moved in the right direction. This week is huge for our season totals. Over the next 2 days we may actually put enough in play that we could see us primed for a positive jump the last week of the playoffs into the Superbowl. So this week is pivotal and damn do I like our chances. Great games today should set up an even better day tomorrow, so sit back and enjoy the games as we make our move for the cash!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		+8.0 units won : -6.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+1.4 units
Total to date :		-27.4 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	:Seattle Seahawks -8.5 over New Orleans Saints Bet 8 units	Click Here
	Seattle Seahawks -8.5 over New Orleans Saints: Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result:

The Saints did exactly as we thought they would last week and played well on the road. Well that was against Philly, a team that I think was decent but more smoke and mirrors playing in a weak division racking up wins against non playoff caliber opponents. It's a whole different animal the Saints are facing up in Seattle today, and I do mean "animal". It's a well known fact that the Seahawks are damn near unbeatable playing on their home turf. The Saints already experienced this in week 13 as they went up to Seattle and got absolutely pasted 34-7 in a totally dominating fashion. Well I'll tell you what, that may look like a field day to what may occur today. The weather in Seattle today looks to be horrendous with rain, most likely heavy, and gusty winds. For a team like the Saints that doesn't bode well. Their success largely depends on their QB Drew Brees to be able to pass effectively. I wasn't worried about him doing it in chilly weather last week against a very mediocre to poor defense in Philadelphia, but wind and rain is different, and going up against one of the most punishing defenses in the league, it doesn't look good. And with the Saints improved defense decimated by injuries in their secondary, this supremely balanced offensive attack of the Seahawks led by the versatile QB Russell Wilson, and the "Beast Mode" running of Marshawn Lynch, Seattle should pound the ball down the field quite often. The passing conditions will be bad for both QB's, but with Seattle's Wilson being able to utilize his legs and add to to the running game, not to mention Brees will have to deal with weather as well as deafening noise, all the advantages point to a dominating performance and easy win by Seattle.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	New England Patriots -7 over Indianapolis Colts: Bet 4 units	Click Here
	New England Patriots -7 over Indianapolis Colts : Bet 4 units	Click Here

Result:

Damn did Indy QB Andrew Luck make a statement last week. Down by 28 points in the 3rd quarter he was able to forget about the 3 picks he made earlier and just took control of his offense and led one of the greatest comebacks in playoff history. It sure made me give him the respect he deserves at being one of the best young QB's in the league right now, but it also showed me the Colts may be in trouble this week. As good as the Colts comeback was last week, they will not get that chance again this week. If Luck, who has the propensity for picks as well as making big plays, tosses the ball like he did last week against the Chiefs this week against the Patriots, there will be no comeback, it will be an absolute blowout loss for the Colts. The Patriots at home are dangerous. A Patriot team with a bye week giving head coach Bill Belichick extra time to prepare is lethal. Mistakes like the Colts made last week will not be overcome this week. If you give Patriot QB Tom Brady extra chances to get the ball, the Pats will run the score up. What makes this Patriot team so amazing this year is the many phases of adaptation they have had to go through this season due to starting the season with a whole new receiving corp, then had to deal with injuries on various different occasions. The team playing today seems to be peaking at just the right time. The personnel they field today has been what they have been going with for a few weeks now and it is gelling nicely. If the Patriots can control the pass rush of the Indy's Mathis, Brady should be able to carve the Colts up based of the Pat's extremely effective running game. I also think a key match up to watch today will be the Pats shut down corner back Talib on Indy's WR T.Y. Hilton. If Talib has success, which I think he will, Luck may just find himself making a mistake or two again this week. The only difference being, against Belichick and the Patriots, there will be no comeback from them. I think the Patriots prove today that they are still a force in the AFC, and while the Colts are a team on the rise, they aren't quite there yet.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Wildcard Playoff Round (Sunday)

Yesterday saw us go 1-1 on the start of these playoff games, but I tell you, it was a disturbing 1-1. With a 31-10 Kansas City lead lead at halftime it looked like we were on our way to an easy win. The fact that the Chiefs picked off luck at the start of the 3rd quarter and made it 38-10 should have sealed it for us. But wait, the Colts come roaring back and outscore the Chiefs 35-9 from that point on to record a 45-44 victory. In the process KC lost 6 starting players to injuries including their star RB Jamaal Charles, and his replacement Davis. They also caused a fumble by the Colts on the goaline, but instead of that being a plus for the Chiefs, Andrew Luck just picks it up and goes in for the TD. Take nothing away from the Colts, they had no quit in them and they fought the whole game no matter the score. But I have never seen that many not only starting players, but key star players go down in a game for one team. Absolutely an amazing series of events had to happen for the Chiefs to lose that game, and well, they did and so did we. At least the Saints proved they can not only play on the road but also in the cold. Anyway, that is now the past and we look to a big day as this playoff weekend continues. These are the games we need, these are the big ones. A sweep today will go a long way in getting us back in good shape. I like our chances, so lets get it on!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Saturday's results :		+3.0 units won : -3.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-0.3 units
Total to date :		-28.8units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Cincinnati Bengals -7 over San Diego Chargers: Bet 6 units	Click Here
	Cincinnati Bengals -7 over San Diego Chargers : Bet 6 units	Click Here

Result:

The Bengals have been a perfect 8-0 at home this season straight up as well as against the spread as well as covering 11 out of there last 12. I have little doubt that changes today. These teams met on December 1st in San Diego with the Bengals coming away with a 17-10 win holding the Chargers to their season low point total. Playing in Cincinnati I cannot see it going any better for the Chargers considering the dominance of the Bengals at home, as a matter of fact I predict it going far worse for them. The Chargers had no answer for this dominant Bengal defense in their first meeting as they forced 3 Charger turnovers and just man handled the San Diego offense. While the Bengals while cruised into the playoffs, the Chargers struggled with consistency all season. Last week needing a win to get in to the post season the Chargers seemed to struggle mightily with that pressure in their win against a Kansas City team that played virtually nothing but the second stringers. This week the pressure is even more intense in a hostile environment. As long as Cincy's QB Andy Dalton does not revert back to throwing picks instead of TD's, I see a very one sided win by the Bengals led by a dominant defensive performance. The weather is calling for a chilly rain in Cincinnati today, and while no team looks forward to that, I believe it will hinder the Chargers a bit more. As good as Phillip Rivers has been this year, he is prone to mistakes himself in pressure situations. With a lot flying in his face today, the bad weather, tough defense, playoff pressure, being on the road, I can see him possibly trying to force the ball leading to some costly mistakes or turnovers. This seems to finally to be the year the Bengals make some noise, and it will come at the expense of the Chargers.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	San Francisco 49ers -2.5 over Green Bay Packers: Bet 8 units	Click Here
	San Francisco 49ers -2.5 over Green Bay packers : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result:

If anyone has ever saw the shows put out by NFL Films you have heard how the Packers stadium in winter is referred to as the "frozen tundra of Lambeau Field". Well that is exactly what the teams will be dealing with today. The temperatures look to be far below zero with wind chills possibly setting or coming close to record lows for a game. It's not going to be fun for either team. But believe it or not this frigid weather suits the 49er team better than it does the home team Packers. With this kind of cold it's good to have a team that can ground and pound the ball and play a smashmouth defense, that is describing the 49ers to a tee. While the Packers have really stepped up their run game this year with RB's Lacy and Starks, it wasn't until Aaron Rodgers came back that this team became a real threat again. As Rodgers goes so goes the Packers. And with no real defense to speak of for Green Bay, if Rodgers can't throw the ball against the 49ers, the Packers are in for a miserable day. I don't think it will be the weather as much as the formidable 49ers pass rush that will hamper Rodgers ability to throw today. The 49ers on the other hand have proven they have no problem moving the ball in recent meetings against the Packers. In the last 3 games these teams have met, the 49ers have won and covered the spread and have averaged 483.3 yards per game while scoring at least 30 points in each contest. The Packers just don't have the defense enough to stop all the offensive weapons of San Fran. Led by QB Colin Kaepernick the 49ers have the ability to run the ball effectively with RB Frank Gore and Kaeperinick himself, or throw it down field to the likes of Boldin, Crabtree, and Davis. San Francisco has the unique ability to stop Green Bay's potent offense in two manners. Either with their bruising smothering defense, or with a balanced ball controlling offense keeping Aaron Rodgers and Co. off the field. There are just too many ways for the 49ers to take control of this game for it not to similar to the last 3 games these teams have played against each other. The 49ers could very well be the best team in the NFL right now, and a team with no real defense regardless of how great their quarterback is, won't be beating them today.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Wildcard Playoff Round

Well we did it, we broke through with a nice win last week to end the regular season! Now all we need to do is win theses next few weeks of playoff football and we can call this season a success. It won't be easy due to that horrific 3 week stretch we went through, but last week's win has breathed new life into our chances of roaring back to our winning ways. Today see's some great games but just some modest plays. That's okay, we win these and we just chip away. More games tomorrow could see us on the verge of a complete turnaround. But it needs to start today, and so playoff NFL football begins, as does our march towards redemption!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		+19.0 units won : -7.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+11.3 units
Total to date :		-28.5units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Kansas City Chiefs -1 over Indianapolis Colts: Bet 3 units	Click Here
	Kansas City Chiefs -1 over Indianapolis Colts : Bet 3 units	Click Here

Result:

It's been widely believed that this game will be the coming out party for Colts young star QB Andrew Luck. Last year in his rookie season he led the Colts to an unexpected playoff berth but were bounced out in the first game. This season with another solid year under his belt Luck and his Colts meet a team they seemed to soundly beat just a couple of weeks ago 23-7. This should be just what the Colts need to get to the next round of the playoffs....right? No, I don't think so. When these teams met a few weeks ago the Chiefs very uncharacteristically turned the ball over 4 times with one being an Alex Smith INT in the end zone. It is highly unlikely that will happen again. And if that's the case, the Chiefs win this game. It starts with the Chiefs being the best road team in the NFL with a 7-1 record, playing at Indy does not hamper them in the least. These teams are fairly evenly matched, however the edge in defense definitely belongs to KC, as does the nod go to the Chiefs favor in coaching with Andy Reid. I believe their first meeting was not a true representation of the match up and any adjustments needed to be made would be more likely favor the Chiefs side and their coaching staff. While the Colts are loaded with talent on the offensive side of the ball, they have been far less dynamic since the loss of WR Reggie Wayne. And if the Chiefs win the turnover battle like they normally do, I expect them to pound the Colts with a ball control offense led By QB Alex Smith and superstar RB Jamaal Charles keeping the Colts scoring opportunities to a minimum. This game will come down to who has the better defense, and with Kansas City sending 5 of their defensive starters to the pro bowl this year, my money is on the Chiefs getting it done once again on the road.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	New Orleans Saints +2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles: Bet 3 units	Click Here
	New Orleans Saints +2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles : Bet 3 units	Click Here

Result:

Why would I take the Saints a team that has not been able to win on the road to beat what looks like to be a hot Philadelphia Eagles team playing at home? It's simple, the Saints are just a better team and they are getting points. The Eagles, as good as they have been have really not beaten any playoff caliber teams aside from Green Bay, and that was with the Packers not having Aaron Rodgers. I'm not saying the Eagles have not been good, but their division was a mess this year and they barely pulled out of it with the lead. It must be noted that Philly QB Nick Foles has been fantastic throwing for 27 TD's with only 2 picks, and RB LeSean McCoy has been the best back in the league this year leading a very potent Eagle offense. But it should be just as notable to realize that Philly's pass defense ranks worst in the league going against one of the best QB's to play the game in Drew Brees with an offense that is one of the most prolific in the league. The only reason I don't weigh this game more heavily in the Saints favor is because of their struggles on the road, but their is no doubt in my mind they should be the favorite. The much improved Saint defense could prove to be an obstacle for this surging Eagle defense as this will be a much stiffer test than the Eagles have had to face in a while. The Saints proved they can battle with the best of them on the road in a close fought contest they narrowly lost to the Carolina Panthers 2 weeks ago. The New Orleans defense was outstanding against one of the top teams in the league. Even with the Saints having their troubles on the road, the game conditions while chilly, but manageable, will be dry and little wind. I think it has little impact on the game's results. In a playoff scenario, I much rather put my money on a Drew Brees led team loaded with talent than a Philly team, led by a good QB in Foles, but being in his first pressure playoff situation. The better team, with the all pro experienced QB, getting points, yup, Saints all the way.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 17 (Sunday)

We find ourselves in the unenviable position of trying to climb out of a huge deficit to try and save the season. The past few weeks have been as bad as I have ever seen. But believe it or not, it's no time to dispair. We have some really great wagers today that if we can finally catch a break, could put us back in striking distance to pull off a decent run through the playoffs. But we really need today, so the pressure is on. No problem, the beatdown we have taken ends today and its payback time! Actually it would be nice to just finally get paid, and it starts today.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		0.0 units won : -26.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-28.6 units
Total to date :		-39.8 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Detroit Lions +3 over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 3 units	Click Here
	Detroit Lions +3 over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 3 units	Click Here

Result:

This is pretty much what is called a dead game. Two teams playing out the season with no chance of making the playoffs. The Vikings have been dead all year as they have really had a dreadful season, but the Lions just 2 weeks ago looked destined for a playoff spot. Detroit’s heartbreaking overtime loss last week to the Giants sealed their fate for any post season play and has them coming into Minnesota playing for nothing other than pride. The Vegas lines makers have said that this game would have actually been at least a 7 point reversal making the Lions about a -4 favorite had the Lions needed this game for a playoff spot. With this being said, it is clear to me that the Lions are the better team on both sides of the ball today. Especially with the Viking’s superstar RB Adrian Peterson not playing in this game due to injury. So with no Peterson and the Viking’s not being able to stop anybody’s offense, let alone a very potent balanced attack such as Detroit’s, the lean has to go with a Lion straight up win. Getting points for Detroit in this spot just strengthens it to an actual decent bet on an otherwise meaningless game.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Cincinnati Bengals -7 over Baltimore Ravens: Bet 6 units	Click Here
	Cincinnati Bengal -7 over Baltimore Ravens: Bet 6 units	Click Here

Result:

Ravens are fighting for their playoff lives today, this is a must win for them. That is the only factor they have in their favor here, and it won’t mean all that much. The Bengals at home this season are 7-0 straight up as well as against the spread. They have cashed in better than any team in the league when playing at home this year, even better than the famous hometown crushers, the Seattle Seahawks. Cincinnati also has a reason to win this game today as a win today could put them in a position for a first round bye in the playoffs, so don’t look for them to take this game lightly cruising into the post season. This Bengals team has an incredible defense second only to Seattle in allowing only 4.8 yards per play. That does not bode well for an incredibly struggling Raven offense that has not managed to put up more than 22 points in the last 10 games. The Ravens defense has been pretty decent this year in their own right, and has been what has kept the Ravens even close to contention. But Baltimore finds themselves in a position today going up against a defense superior to their own, and an offense absolutely loaded with weapons. Cincy QB Andy Dalton has really stepped it up heading down the stretch not throwing a pick in the last 3 games, and with over 4,000 yards passing and 31 TD’s on the year he has showed that he is a top NFL QB. The Ravens just needing this win will not be enough to get the job done playing in Cincinnati today, they just don’t have the firepower to pull it off. No other team has been able to do it this year, and certainly neither will an anemic Raven offense going up against this powerful Bengal defense that still has a reason to play hard to the end.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	San Francisco 49ers/Arizona Cardinals take the under total 41.5 : Bet 7 units	Click Here
	San Francisco 49ers/Arizona Cardinals take the over total 41.5 : Bet 7 units	Click Here

Result:

This game should prove to be an intense defensive battle, at least to start. The 49ers have an outside chance to get the top seed in the playoff rankings with a win and a Seattle loss, while the Cardinals need a win to at least get a chance at a playoff berth. They would also need help with a Saints loss today. This match up has all the makings of a possible hard hitting low scoring classic. The 49ers have been good this year and it’s primarily due to a very powerful defense. San Fran ranks 5th in run defense and 4th against the pass. They have needed that as their offense has been far less potent this year with a passing attack surprisingly ranked 31st this year. Their offense this season has been mostly built around a potent run game led by RB Frank Gore who has rushed for over 1,100 yards and 9 TD’s. The problem may lie with the fact the 49ers will need to try to run the ball today against the number 1 run defense in the league in this Cardinal defensive squad. This is going to lead to stalled drives and lots of clock getting eaten up. Don’t look for the Cardinal offense to fair much better. With this ferocious pass rush of the 49ers, look for Arizona QB Carson Palmer to get hit a lot today, and very likely toss a couple to receivers in the wrong jersey. Palmer has thrown more multiple INT games, 7, than games in which he has thrown none, 4. So even if Arizona can move the ball some, I can’t see any consistency that would allow much scoring going against this 49er defense. If in the Seattle game the Seahawks jump out to a big lead, you may see the 49ers pull out some starters as they no longer need to risk injury to them as they could not advance their playoff position further. This would only help our cause as their would be virtually no offense on the field for the Niners late in the game. If you like a good smash mouth defensive battle, this should be the game to watch.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Denver Broncos -11 over Oakland Raiders : Bet 10 units	Click Here
	Denver Broncos -11 over Oakland Raiders: Bet 10 units	Click Here

Result:

The Oakland Raiders cannot stop this Bronco offense. It’s that simple. Add on that Denver has something to play for as they need a win to sew up the home field throughout the playoffs, and this game looks to get ugly quick and stay that way. Not that Peyton Manning cares much about personal records over wins, but he also needs just 266 yards to break the single season all time passing record set by Drew Brees. There is no way Denver is pulling Manning out of this game without getting that record. Although, it’s a very good possibility he may get that by halftime as well as add to his already single season record total of 51 TD’s. The Broncos have already beaten the Raiders this year by 16 points and it was only that close by Denver basically doing nothing at the end of the game and allowing 2 late garbage Oakland TD’s. Even if that becomes the case, the Broncos lead should be so much that even with a similar scoring scenario the 2 TD+ lead easily covers. The Raiders while having some glimpses of decent play occasionally this year, have really just lost their way coming down the stretch losing their last 5 and going 1-4 against the spread. Denver has had its issues defensively this year, but the one thing they have done is handle bad teams easily. The Raiders certainly qualify as that. This is a case where even a perfect game from Oakland would not be enough to keep pace with this Bronco offense. In a game they need Denver should step on the gas early and keep it there until the end. This is going to be a route that allows Denver to cruise into the playoffs the number 1 AFC seed.