Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 9 (Thursday)

All I can say about Monday night's game is....UGH! That was a horrible display of football by both teams. The amount of penalties for both sides made it mind numbing to watch, as did the surprisingly low level of play out of one of the best teams in the league, the Seattle Seahawks. They got outplayed and out gained in every aspect of the game except the all important score. The Rams gained almost 200 yards rushing....almost 3 times their season average! They also sacked Russell Wilson 7 times....really? The Seahawks shot themselves in the foot by making huge plays all night only to have them taken away because of penalties. Just about every characteristic of this game was absolutely backwards and just surreal. I'm sorry but even the best prognosticator could not have predicted what happened in that game Monday night. And with that, we took a tough loss on a game 9 times out of 10 would not even come close to going the way it did. However, it in fact did. So once again we find ourselves as the second half of the regular season starts in a bit of a deficit that we need to correct. No problem, we have a strong play to start week 9 and from here we look to finally get on the run we have come so close to going on so many times this season. With our intelligent wagering to date we are still in striking distance of pulling ahead and while we won't do it with just 1 bet tonight, it takes a win to start the streak and I like what we have on tap for tonight.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Monday's results :		-8.0 units
10% house vig on losses :		-0.8 units
Total to date :		-11.0 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Cincinnati Begals -3 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 5 units	Click Here
	Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result: Miami Dolphins 22 : Cincinnati Bengals 20

We have another case of 2 teams going in totally opposite directions as the second half of the season kicks off tonight. The Miami Dolphins started the season 3-0 and looked to be full of promise, but a 4 game losing streak and erratic play out of their QB Ryan Tannehill has really brought them back to earth and they are really struggling. Meanwhile Cincinnati is flying high at 6-2 and leading their division with their QB Andy Dalton playing lights out in the month of October. Miami looked to be putting a decent game together last week against the Patriots as they led that game 17-3 going into the half, but it was more of a case of the Patriots playing poorly and when they came out for the second half, Miami's inability to protect their QB proved to be the dagger that led to their ultimate demise and a 27-17 Patriot win. That spells big time trouble as the Bengals come roaring into town tonight. Cincy's defense is capable of shutting down even elite offenses of the league, let alone a very mediocre mistake prone Miami one. The Bengals pass rush really should prove to be a huge concern for the Dolphins as the Cincinnati defensive line led by one of the best in the league Geno Atkins will no doubt find their way into Ryan Tannehill's lap quite a few times. The Dolphin run game hasn't been that strong this year and if forced to pass look for some big plays on the Bengals defensive side. Miami has competent wide receivers in Hartline, and the Speedy Mike Wallace, but I don't think it's nearly enough as I don't think the Dolphin offensive line will be able to protect enough for any big plays to be made. On the other hand, the Bengals seem to be cranking up their offense of late to nicely compliment their incredibly stout defense. Bengal QB Andy Dalton has been known in the past to be a hot and cold passer that at times has led to an erratic offense. Well the past 3 weeks he has been absolutely incredible completing 89 of 131 passes for 1246 yards, throwing 11 TD's, and having an off the charts QB rating of 116.8. I feel he sustained this production long enough now to warrant the credit he can do it against this Dolphin defense. Miami has been decent against the run and the Bengals rushing game has been just mediocre, but the Bengals have a passing attack led by wide receiver A.J. Green that I don't believe Miami will have much of an answer for. I think the Bengal's are quickly becoming one of the powerhouses of the AFC along with Denver and the surprising Chiefs, but they have not yet caught the public eye as of yet. Good for us as the points stay within a field goal and should be an easy cover.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 8 ( Monday)

Well Sunday's games went pretty good. We took 2 out of 3 for a 3.3 unit profit. I certainly expected more from the Falcons yesterday but Matt Ryan had an unusually bad day with 3 Int's that sealed us off from getting a huge clean sweep yesterday. That is fine, a profitable day is a win no matter the size. However, tonight's game is a big one and should catapult us into a nice positive position. Its a big spread to cover, but this one should get out of control in our favor very quickly. So for week 8 we are currently up a nice 7.3 units. Tonight's game should really give us the big win we've been looking for.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		+4.0 units
10% house vig on losses :		+3.3 units
Total to date :		-2.2 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Seattle Seahawks -11.5 over St. Louis Rams : Bet 8 units	Click Here
	Seattle Seahawks -11.5 over St. Louis Rams : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result: Seattle Seahawks 14 : St. Louis Rams 9

I have said it many times before in the past, it is very difficult to take double digit point spreads for the favorite to cover in the NFL. I have said it, yet I have done it with the Seahawks in the past couple of seasons and they have yet to let me down. This would be my first time going with them with this large of spread with them being on the road, but in this game it's not going to matter much. All that does is lessen the weight of our wager from max bet to 8 units. My confidence level in this game however is maxed out. This is a horrendus match up for the Rams. With losing the only somewhat bright spot of their team in QB Sam Bradford to a torn ACL last week, St. Louis looks to be pretty much weaponless going against a ferocious opponent in the Seasttle Seahawks. The Rams will be starting back up QB Kellen Clemens who hasn't started a game since 2011. Even with Bradford it would have been a daunting task to face this brutal Seahawk defense, but with Clemens who has never proven to be a very accurate passer completing just 51.8 % of his passes. If he's not perfect with delivering the ball in this game its going to be a nightmare for the Rams with that star studded Seattle defensive secondary led by cornerback Richard Sherman. The St Louis offense comes into this game ranked 30th in the league in yards per game, only ahead of the winless Buccaneers and Jaguars. With a back up QB at the helm tonight, I cannot expect them to be any better and do expect far worse. The Rams defense leaves something to be desired as well. They are allowing over 126 yards per game rushing this year which will spell huge trouble with a beast like Seattle's Marshawn Lynch running at them as well as a supremely mobile running QB in Russell Wilson. The Rams are also giving up the second most yards per pass play in the league at 7.97. The well balanced offensive attack of the Seahawks should just chew this defense up. I cannot see how the Rams with no running game and a back up QB will be able to get anything going against a Seattle defense that leads the league in least yards given up per play. The Rams just do not have an edge in any area of match ups with this Seahawk team, except maybe that St Louis is the home team. That will not matter tonight as for the life of me I can't see how the Rams even score a point. This is going to get ugly quick on both sides of the ball for St Louis, and that's at least why for tonight, laying double digits in the point spread is a great bet.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 8 (Sunday)

I can feel that momentum building now. After sweeping the late games on Sunday and then getting a nice win on Thursday, we are rolling and have put ourselves to surge to big profits this week. I feel extremely confident that now that we have hit the mid point of the regular season this roll we have started will continue to propel us far into the black. I love these picks today and am confident that we may actually get our first sweep of the year. It's at this time of the year that we make our move towards not only profit but to a point where we can sustain that profit through the inevitable swings. Today is the start as we enjoy what should be a great and very lucrative day!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Thursday's results :		+4.0 units
10% house vig on losses :		0.0 units
Total to date :		-5.5 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	New England Patriots -6 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 7 units	Click Here
	New England Patriots -6 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 7 units	Click Here

Result: New England Patriots 27 : Miami Dolphins 17

This game has all the makings of a good old fashioned beatdown. New England is coming off an upset loss to the Jets in New York on a pretty bogus call in overtime. The Patriots are home this week and coming off a loss, a loss that really ticked them off, poor Miami this week. While the Patriots have been less than their usual stellar offensive machine this season, I predict the change is coming. Last week they finally got their star tight end Rob Gronkowski back and in just his first game back in almost a year he had a big impact with 8 catches for 114 yards. With another week under his belt I expect the connection of Brady to the “Gronk” to torch this struggling Miami team. Brady has had to start this year with a whole new cast of receivers, and it has held his numbers to being pretty mediocre. Well with Gronkowski back and possibly Amendola who is listed as questionable, along side this corp of young new receivers of the the Patriots, expect a huge day from this New England offense. This Dolphin defense is giving up over 372 yards per game ranking them 21st in the league, its exactly what the Patriots need to get this offense gelling again. On Miami’s side it has really fallen apart for them. Since starting the season 3-0 they have just tanked since losing 3 straight as well as going 0-3 against the spread. The Dolphins have not been able to protect their QB Ryan Tannehill and it has showed as all of the 11 turnovers this season have come from him. The running game for Miami was fairly decent last week, and with New England’s injuries up front on defense this may be a positive for the Dolphins. However if Brady starts clicking with that fast paced offense, which I believe he will, Miami will be forced to throw to keep up and that’s when it will fall apart for them. Patriots at home are very good, Patriots at home after a loss, expect a lopsided New England win and a coming out party for that Patriot offense.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Dallas Cowboys/Detroit Lions take the over total 50.5 : Bet 4 units	Click Here
	Dallas Cowboys/Detroit Lions take the over total 50.5 : Bet 4 units	Click Here

Result: Detroit Lions 31 : Dallas Cowboys 30

Last week the Cowboys disappointed me in their win by only scoring 17 points. I didn’t figure their opponent the Eagles would be so feeble and turnover prone and only score 3 points so Dallas didn’t need to step on the gas. That will not be the case this week. It’s going to take far more than 17 points from either team to win this game. This game is featuring 2 of the top passing QB’s in the league in the Cowboys Tony Romo, and the Lions Matthew Stafford. Both of them are capable of lighting it up and they have consistently done so all year. Romo tossing to the likes of Dez Bryant, and rookie stand out Terrance Williams has thrown for 15 TD’s with only 5 INT’s. Stafford has been lethal throwing the ball lately with 8 TD’s and only 1 INT in the past 3 weeks. With weapons like wide receiver Calvin “Megatron” Johnson, and slick all purpose running back Reggie Bush, this Detroit is a handful for any defense to handle. Fortunately for our wager both of these teams have been as poor on defense as they are good on offense. The Lions rank 31st in the league in total defense, and aside from a strong showing last week with Philly, the Dallas defense has not been much better giving up huge totals every week. Both of these teams have a lot to play for as Dallas is in first in their division but at 4-3 even the lowly Giants at 1-6 are only a couple games behind them if the Cowboys lose today. And Detroit at 4-3 are just a ½ game out of first place in their division, but they cannot afford a second straight loss at home after that disappointing defeat last week against the Bengals. So I expect both teams to come out firing today and do what they do best to try and get the win, and that is score and score often. Detroit’s offensive line is a little banged up today so that is why I have this wager weighted a little lighter as Stafford is going to have to work a little harder than normal to get the ball out to his scoring machine. But I’m confident he will, as well as will Tony Romo. Watch for big numbers from the opposing receivers Johnson and Bryant today as the score rises well over the total.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Atlanta Falcons +1 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 7 units	Click Here
	Atlanta Falcons +1 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 7 units	Click Here

Result: Arizona Cardinals 27 : Atlanta Falcons 13

Here is an interesting fact concerning this game. The Arizona Cardinals played the Seattle Seahawks last week in a losing effort. No team this year has won a game the following week after playing Seattle. Its funny how a team not playing in this game can effect the outcome, but I do believe the Seahawks play a factor here. Their incredibly bruising, brutal, style of play just wears teams out as evidenced by the 0-6 record of every team playing the week after going against them. Arizona should be no different, especially because they have problems of their own without the Seattle factor. Cardinal QB Carson Palmer has been a nightmare lately. As good as he can be, he can be far worse as he is just a turnover machine throwing multiple INT’s in 5 straight games now. It’s a momentum killer and is really all Atlanta QB Matt Ryan needs to get on the field more and run up the score. As bad as Palmer has been Ryan has been that good. With his big receiving weapons Julio Jones and Roddy White out, he has managed to still have one of his best seasons statistically. While Atlanta’s season has been a bit disappointing so far, they look to be getting healthy for this second half of the season and should make a big push towards the playoffs. Today see’s their star running back Steven Jackson return which should give them the much needed boost to the run game to compliment their already potent passing game. The Cardinals on the other hand look to be going the other way. Palmer while being an improvement over last years debacle at QB, is just not getting it done and they have done very little to help him with the offensive line giving up 20 sacks already this year. And with Arizona superstar wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald still far from 100% battling a hamstring injury, there is little hope at the moment for this Cardinal team. I can’t for the life of me figure how Arizona would be favored in this game. I think that’s significantly wrong and I believe we can capitalize on it. Watch for Atlanta to start their comeback into being a significant force in the league with a big and dominant win today in Arizona.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 8 (Thursday)

I have mixed feelings about this past week's games. While we eeked out a tiny 0.6 unit profit for Sunday's games, and a 5.6 unit profit for the week, it really didn't pan out as I had hoped. I actually lost my first max bet in the past 2 seasons. Of course it was bound to happen sooner or later and I should be pleased with my 7-1 record with max bets at stake, but it's always tough to lose something so heavily weighted to the advantage. Well this is part of the game and the bigger picture is, we had a winning week. Something we surely needed and will hopefully build on once again this week. This is where the wagering really gets exciting because the season is in full swing and every team is playing all out now. It's in these next few weeks that we should be able to make our move to some serious profit levels. I like tonight's game to catapult us into the mid season stride. This is where we make our move so its time to lay the wagers and reap the profits!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		+2.0 units
10% house vig on losses :		+0.6 units
Total to date :		-9.5 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Carolina Panthers -6.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Bet 4 units	Click Here
	Carolina Panthers -6.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Bet 4 units	Click Here

Result: Carolina Panthers 31 : Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

With Carolina coming into town tonight Tampa is looking for their first win of the season….well meeting the Panthers tonight makes it bad timing for that. While Carolina seems to be finally finding their groove and are moving closer to being the potential playoff bound team predicted of them, the Buccaneers are a mess and seem to have floundered away what was thought to be a positive year for them. Carolina comes into tonight on a 2 game win streak with the offense led by QB Cam Newton playing much better, and with a defense that has been lights out all season. The Panther defense has given up only 13 points per game this season and may have one of the best linebackers in the league in Luke Kuechly. Tampa Bay on the other hand seems to have really struggled under 2nd year head coach Greg Schiano. It seems as if much of the club has not really bought into his system and in turn a team that had great potential to start the season with some good talent, has played flat and seemingly uninspired all year. They released their struggling starting QB Josh Freeman, a player thought to be their franchise player for years to come, and have inserted rookie QB Mike Glennon to lead the team. He actually has performed well in 2 games passing for over 500 yards and 5 TD’s with 3 interceptions. But that was against an Atlanta and Philly team that aren’t known to be big on defense. Glennon has had success throwing to his star wide receiver Vincent Jackson, but the problem is, that’s pretty much all he has thrown too. 36 out of his 87 passes has been targeted to Jackson. Now that there is a few games to study on this young QB I expect this talented Carolina defense to either take this safety valve away from him and force him to throw to other options, or force him into mistakes and take the ball away. If I can see this, you can damn sure count on the Panther D to key on it. To add to Tamp Bay’s woes this week their star running back Doug Martin is hurt and will be out. This is a huge blow as he is by far their best offensive player. The bottom line is, not only is Carolina a better team but they are finally playing that way and they come in to tonight’s game much more healthy than the Bucs, and with momentum. Tampa Bay’s slight resurgence under their rookie QB gets knocked down a peg tonight as Carolina proves they are for real, and the Bucs still do not get their first win of the season.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 7 (Sunday)

Week 7 is here with a bang! After Seattle basically played out the game exactly as we predicted for us on Thursday for a nice win, we storm into this Sunday with huge wagering opportunities! This is the kind of week that one waits for all season, well we got it here in week 7. Of course if this week's wagers don't go as expected we will see ourselves in a hole hard pressed to climb out of, but in order to make a profit in this game you must trust in the ability of finding the advantage and bet with it, and that is exactly what we have here. I couldn't be more confident that the odds our largely in our favor today, and with that I offer up not 1 but 2 max bets today! I forecast a great day no matter what the weather. As a side note, going back to last year, I have yet to lose a max bet. Let the streak continue on!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Thursday's results :		+4.0 units
10% house vig on losses :		0.0 units
Total to date :		-11.1 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Dallas Cowboys/Philadelphia Eagles take the over total 55.5 : Bet 10 units	Click Here
	Dallas Cowboys/ Philadelphia Eagles take the over total 55.5 : Bet 10 units	Click Here

Result: Dallas Cowboys 17 : Philadelphia Eagles 3

This is just 1 of 2 of our wagered games today that have the makings of video game type scores. This game between these two division rivals is the blend of very good offenses going up against bad defenses to make up the perfect storm of a crazy high scoring affair. The Cowboys coming off a 48 point scoring effort in a close loss the Broncos are going to absolutely shred this Eagle defense that is especially week against the pass. The Philly defense has given up 314.5 passing yards per game this year which ranks 31st in the league, while giving up an average of almost 30 points per game which ranks 29th. That should be making the mouth of Dallas QB Tony Romo water as he comes off his 500 yard, 5 touchdown passing day in last week’s game. Cowboy star receiver Dez Bryant will have a day for the ages against this Eagle secondary, there is nobody on the field that can remotely come close to covering him, watch for Dez to possibly set receiving records today. With the Eagles fast paced offense it will give the Cowboys plenty of time on the field on offense to put up some big numbers. But they won’t be the only ones. This Philadelphia team seems to be hitting stride offensively once again and should be able to light up a very suspect Dallas defense as well, especially with the Cowboy’s top defensive player and pass rusher Demarcus Ware being hurt. Philly QB Michael Vick being replaced by backup Nick Foles is what I believe to be a boost to this Eagles offense. While not as athletic as Vick, Foles is probably a better manager and more accurate passer for this dynamic and fast paced squad. With NFL leading rusher RB LaSean McCoy and wideout DeSean Jackson having monster years, this offense scores often and quickly averaging close to 28 points a game. Going up a Dallas defense that ranks 30th overall in defense and 29th against the pass, I see very little resistance to a well balanced quick strike offense such as Philly’s. As A matter of fact I think the only defense either team has is a good offense. So expect fireworks and a crazy shootout as these teams battle for dominance in their division.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 over San Diego Chargers : Bet 4 units	Click Here
	Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 over San Diego Chargers : Bet 4 units	Click Here

Result: San Diego Chargers 24 : Jacksonville Jaguars 6

Upset alert! Even if the winless Jaguars can’t outright beat these Chargers they have been playing much better of late and should really keep this game somewhat competitive. But if there was time for Jacksonville to get there first win, it really could be this week. While the Chargers have been exceeding most observers expectations this year, due mostly by the outstanding play of their QB Philip Rivers, this week may find them looking a little flat. After a gutsy performance in last weeks 19-9 win over the Colts, the Chargers find themselves traveling across the country to try and get up for a winless team in what equates to an early morning game for a west coast team. The Chargers have really found themselves struggling to get motivated against teams with losing records going only 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 times in this position. While this Charger team that has ranked 4th in offensive efficiency, they find themselves dead last in the defensive efficiency department. This really gives this Jaguar team a fighting chance to keep this game close and possibly win for their first time this year. Jacksonville has performed better with Chad Henne now at QB, and this has helped the emergence this year of very talented wideout Justin Blackmon as he has over 100 yards receiving in 2 straight games. With Maurice Jones- Drew looking a bit more impressive running the ball lately the Jags actually have a viable offensive scheme. The defense while not being able to stop the unstoppable Peyton Manning led Bronco offense, did in fact make a few impressive 3rd down stops last week. Look for that to continue this week as they gain confidence against a lesser opponent than the Denver Broncos. This is a good time to take the Jaguars, they are improving but have yet to crack the win column so they still get a favorable amount of points. I like this to be a good game and possibly an outright upset if not just a cover.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	San Francisco 49ers -3.5 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 6 units	Click Here
	San Francisco 49ers -3.5 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 6 units	Click Here

Result: San Francisco 49ers 31 : Tennessee Titans 17

The Titans got off to a 3-1 start and looked good playing mistake free football. That has not been the case since their starting QB Jake Locker went down and Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken over. They have now lost 2 straight and have turned the ball over 5 times in these past 2 games. This has lead to an offense that has now slumped to a dismal 29th in the league. What makes matters worse is their main running threat RB Chris Johnson has only averaged 25 yards per game the last 3. This Tennessee team is not the same as a couple of weeks ago and its going to show as a now hot 49er team rolls into town. After dropping 2 in a row the 49ers have now won 3 in a row and they are looking much more like what was expected in the beginning of the season. Last week San Fran’s QB Colin Kaepernick had his best game of the season so far, and the run game has been on point with RB Frank Gore averaging 111 yards per game over the last 3. Even though the 49ers have played a bit more conservatively as of late, they have still managed to put up 30+ points per game during this 3 game win streak. They won’t need that many to beat and cover against this now quietly struggling Tennessee Titans team.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Denver Broncos/Indanapolis Colts take the over total 56 : Bet 10 units	Click Here
	Denver Broncos/Indanapolis Colts take the over total 56 : Bet 10 units	Click Here

Result: Indianapolis Colts 39 : Denver Broncos 33

This could possibly be our best bet of the whole season. Peyton Manning comes back to Indianapolis today for the first time since leaving 2 years ago and its going to get crazy. The Colts plan on honoring Peyton before the game in a ceremony celebrating his 14 years as arguably the best all time best QB in their history. But once that whistle blows to start the game the sentiment is gone and Manning is going for the throat. Colts owner Jim Irsay took what I perceive as some cheap shots at Peyton this week saying he thinks they should have won more than 1 Superbowl during Mannings tenure. It was a bit of a knock on Peyton’s lack of success in the post season as compared to the regular season. Well Mr. Irsay, today is the regular season, and Peyton and his boys are coming into town locked and loaded and are going to raise holy hell I guarantee it. Everyone of the Broncos games have gone over this year with and average game score now of 46-35 and I don’t see it being much different today. Nobody has slowed this Bronco offense down this year and this Colt defense will be no different. What makes this game so mouth watering to the over bet besides Peyton’s incredible offense is their weak pass defense going against a motivated Andrew Luck. Luck had a lot of weight on his shoulders being Manning’s successor in Indianapolis, and he has responded amazingly well going 15-7 in his first 22 games. He is a true budding superstar and along with his immensely talented receiving core in Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, they should hang a big number themselves on the scoreboard today. If they can get their running game going with RB Trent Richardson today, they may have a chance to keep this game close by keeping Manning off the field. But the Broncos have yet to score less than 4 offensive touchdowns in any game this year, today, especially today, will be no different. Both teams will score over 30 and look for a statement game from Mr. Peyton Manning.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 7 (Thursday)

Well we find ourselves in a little bit of a hole as we start week 7 of this NFL season. Not to worry, after week 6 of last year we found ourselves in a similar situation down almost 20 units and came back to finish with a fine 25 unit profit on the season. I expect no different this season....actually I do expect something a bit different, bigger year end profits! It starts with our first game of the week tonight. We should get a nice jump start back into making money with a strong pick tonight.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Monday's results :		-5.0 units
10% house vig on losses :		-0.5 units
Total to date :		-15.1 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Seattle Seahawks -5.5 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 4 units	Click Here
	Seattle Seahawks -5.5 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 4 units	Click Here

Result: Seattle Seahawks 34 - Arizona Cardinals 22

Ok lets get something straight here before everyone panic about the Seahawks not covering their last 2 games, it's not going to happen 3 in a row. Not because it can't, but because it won't. The Seahawks are still the dominant NFC powerhouse and only a couple of blocked field goals in the last 2 games is the difference in them being a perfect money team this year. Despite the improvement to the Arizona Cardinals this year over last season, this team is still a bad match up against this nightmare of a defense for any NFL team. Cardinal QB Carson Palmer while adding quite a bit to the team dynamic this year over last year's Cardinals that had no real QB, has been prone to the interception throwing multiple in 4 straight games. That is absolute suicide against this Seattle defense with top cornerbacks like Sherman and Browner patrolling the defensive secondary. On top of this, Cardinal superstar wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald has been dealing with a hamstring issue which didn't show much of a problem last week, but may get exposed getting bumped by these big physical corners of Seattle. Arizona's defense has been good against the run this year with teams only averaging 3.5 yards per rush, but Seattle will test that with "The Beast" Marshawn Lynch and the running ability of QB Russell Wilson. Even if Seattle is slowed in the run game, Russell Wilson has the weapons and the arm to stretch the field with a passing attack as well. There is no doubt in my mind this Seahawk defense will be a factor in the scoring tonight whether it be intercepting Palmer, or just stuffing the Cardinal offense to create great field position for the Seattle offense. The past couple of weeks have got me weary of Seattle's special teams as they have had huge breakdowns in the field goal unit leading to monster point swings, and while I chalk that up mostly to freak bad luck it is a factor in the weight of my bet here. I need to see them get it together again and not commit costly turnovers. Also Seattle plays slightly weaker on the road than at home. All that being said last year's match up between these 2 teams saw an embarrassing 58-0 Seahawk trouncing of the Cardinals. I don't expect that bad of a beatdown again, but I do expect Seattle busting out tonight to prove they are not the mistake prone team of the last 2 weeks. I expect a ferocious Seattle defensive showing with a very proficient offense. If that happens, it doesn't matter who they're playing....just ask the 49ers.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 6 (Monday)

This past Sunday was definitely a bit frustrating to watch as we saw our bets get hit by luck, both good and bad. The frustrating part of it is the bad luck hit our large wager while the good landed with our small. I enjoy every win and the Patriot win was a sweet one as it was a good game that played out for 3 quarters as expected. But the Saints rallying back looked as if we may take a loss with only a couple of minutes left. Enter Tom Brady. When it looks like the Patriots may have nothing left all he does is drive them down the field and throw an amazing touchdown to win the game with 5 seconds left. A great talent with some luck gave us a nice win. However, the Seattle Seahawks did almost all they could to give away a game they basically controlled all day. The biggest atrocity came when the Seattle kicker gets knocked out of the game so the usual holder goes in to try an easy field goal. Well when the snap to the new holder gets botched we see a comedy of errors that leads to an attempt of trying to advance the ball instead of just falling on it. So in this feeble attempt Seattle fumbles the ball and its picked up by Tennessee and run back the other way for a touchdown.....unbelievable. So instead of A Seahawk easy 3 points, it turns around as 7 for the Titans. A huge swing of 10 points that pretty much cost us an 8 unit bet as the Titans otherwise could mount very little against Seattle. Oh well, thats the breaks. It's all part of the season, mark my words, that will happen for us in our favor as well at some point in the season.We play the advantages, so we will see swings of good and bad, but when we add it all up in the end, odds are we will get more "lucky" breaks than not. Anyway, we have a nice play tonight to help wash down any disappointment from yesterday so let us march on.


Indianapolis Colts -1 over San Diego Chargers   Bet 5 units

At first glance when I looked at this game I thought this wouldn't have much value. San Diego QB Phillip Rivers has been very good this year and the Chargers have actually been a tough out. They have covered all but last week's games this season and have really played pretty consistent. But its not so much the Chargers being weak as it is the Colts being strong that lead me to finding some real value in this game. While the Chargers have some fine offensive power led by Rivers and a rejuvenated Antonio Gates and supported by the all purpose threat Danny Woodhead in the passing game, they offer little threat in the run game.Their top running threat Ryan Matthews has only 234 yards on the season and missed some time this week in practice due to a concussion. The Colts on the other hand are just as potent if not slightly more on the passing side of the ball with star young QB Andrew Luck lighting it up to Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, but with the addition of Trent Richardson at RB and with Luck actually being a running threat in scrambling and gaining first downs, this Colts team has a viable and dangerous running game. Something else jumped out at me while looking at this game, the inability of the Charger defense to produce turnovers. Not only is the Charger defense ranked 32nd (last) in yards given up per play, they rank 27th in passing yards given up, and have only managed 2 takeaways. Those kind of numbers look to be a bad matc hup for a big time passer like Luck and his crew. Conversely the Colts while showing weakness on defense against the run, that should be less of a factor against a weak running team like the Chargers, have showed a fine ability in getting turnovers with 10 takeaways so far this season. The Chargers are an improved team with a real good QB that can play a lot of teams close. The Colts are all that plus a whole lot more. Just having to win this game by less than a field goal gives a real nice edge to a fast rising Colts team.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks Week 6 (Sunday)

We are officially rolling once again. With our latest upset cover prediction with the Giants hitting, we are back in the money. Today we have 3 picks that should see us get comfortably in the black and keep us there for the season. No upsets today, just taking a big favorite and one that should be. Sometimes taking the chalk (favorite) is the best move for the money. This Sunday's games see's us only involved in 2 games but with 3 plays. But as you'll see, we don't need to bet on a lot of games to get paid!


New England Patriots -1 over New Orleans Saints   Bet 4 units

The Saints come into this game looking very impressive. QB Drew Brees has been outstanding and new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has put together a very decent defensive squad that the Saints have lacked over the last few seasons. At 5-0 the Saints have opened up a nice 3.5 game lead in their NFC South division already. All that being said there is something that sticks in my mind right off the bat when looking at this game, superstar QB Tom Brady, genius head coach Bill Belichick, playing at home with less than a field goal as a favorite. That is amazing as I can't recall in recent, and even not so recent history where that has happened.The Patriots are leading their AFC East division as well at 4-1, with that one loss coming in a bad game against the Bengals last week. This makes for a very dangerous home team Patriot team today. New England does not string together bad performances, and that goes the same for their QB Brady. The Patriots are going to have to play a near flawless game against these Saints to beat them, but tha's exactly what I expect from New England as that is there calling card. With the New England offense starting to get healthy again I would expect them to be able to string together some nice drives to keep that explosive Saints offense off the field. Also keep an eye on Patriot coner back Aqib Talib, as he will be a very busy man covering either or Saints tight end Graham or wideout Colston. Talib has been excellent this year and how he handles these receivers will go along way in how the Patriots fair today. I love the Pats at home only needing a win without a monster handicap. Times are changing, but not that much and not today.


Seattle Seahawks -11 over Tennessee Titans   Bet 8 units

Seattle Seahawks/Tennessee Titans take the over total 41   Bet 4 units

There is no place like home and that statement has never been more clear then when referring to the Seahawks and their absolute utter dominance playing at their home field.The numbers are astounding with them winning their last 10 in a row, and 17 out of  their last 20 against the spread there.They are also 5 out of 6 for winning as double digit home favorites. Its asking a lot of the Titans to come into Seattle and even compete against a Seahawk team that is averaging 37-10 wins at home this year. Especially with Tennessee needing to depend on back up QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to go up against this Seattle pass defense that ranks 3 rd in the league. Titans will have to try to get a running game going to pull some pressure off this collossal mismatch of pass offense vs pass defense, but Titan running back Chris Johnson has not been able to get anything going as of late only rushing for 17 and 21 yards his last 2 games. I think this game is going to be an old fashion beat down with Seattle's defense really mauling this Titans team today. I still take the over however due to the fact I think the Seattle offense is potent enough to put up big points, and their defense could add to the total. And even if they don't they will be giving the Seahawks great field position all day. I believe Seattle will easily match the average points they have put up so far at home this year, and even though I predict a blowout, I do believe Tennessee will muster up a few points. But believe me, Seattle coming off their first loss and being at home, expect them to put on a show of force on both sides of the ball. 41 may be even too low a number for the Seahawks alone today.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 6 (Thursday)

Well the ups and downs of this NFL season continued this past week with us salvaging an otherwise rough Sunday with a fantastic upset prediction of Dallas covering against the Denver Broncos. We followed that up with another fine upset pick of the Jets over Atlanta. A volatile start to the season to say the least, but the NFL is a league of parody and hopefully we are on our way to smoothing out the fluctuations. Another win on our Thurday night prediction today should go a long way in accomplishing that. Our pick tonight see's us picking yet another upset and with a perfect record with our major underdog covers this year, the odds are very good we get rolling once again off the momentum of our earlier win from Monday night.


New York Giants +7.5 over Chicago Bears   Bet 4 units

This is a battle of two surprisingly struggling teams. While the Bears jumped out to  a 3-0 star of the season they have dropped their last 2 games and have have been weak against the spread. The Giants on the other hand have been awful going winless in their first five games as well as finishing out of the money in every game. But this game is a stylistic matchup that should not warrant the Bears being a favorite of more than a touchdown. While the Bears offense has been good an has done a fine job in protecting QB Jay Cutler, the defense has really weakened against the one thing the Giants can be dangerous in.....the pass. Chicago pass defense has given up 25 pass plays of 20yards or more, that's most in the NFC. If there is one thing the Giants are capable of doing that would be mid to deep threat passing. Eli Manning while having trouble throwing picks this year, still is a very capable QB with huge weapons in Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Rueben Randle. Chicago has the weapons to score as well, but the Giants have shown glimpses of improvement lately and going up a struggling pass defense should give the Giants a much needed boost to morale.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks:Week 5 (Monday)

Well, Sunday turned out to be a tougher call than expected. But with our upset pick of the week with Dallas covering against Denver we feel very strongly abut how things are going. We plan on building on our upset pick by again picking our next upset on Monday Night Football. So tune in, and let's bump the bankroll!

New York Jets +10 over Atlanta Falcons  Bet 3 units

This year has seen the Jets go up and down as their rookie quarterback has progressed AND regressed. What makes this game desirable, is the fact that Jets rookie QB Geno Smith has actually performed better than his veteran squad. To match this- Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan has introduced a dynamic defense that compensates for a sometimes stagnant offense. Every week, Jet QB Geno Smith has progressed to the point where his defense is more than capable of holding up their share of the bargain. Atlanta, on the other hand, has moved in just the opposite direction, with QB Matt Ryan being very economical, but his team being far from the same. This is a team that is getting credit from the past. They are playing a team that is getting credit for what has been predicted of them. The Jets are a team with a good and complex defense and far greater offensive potential than anyone has predicted. I don't forecast miracles here-but what I do forecast is the Jets defense holding these Atlanta Falcons in check enough to cover the 10 point spread.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 5 (Sunday)

Well we are in the money for the season, and with a 4-2 record last week we pulled down a very nice +9.3 unit win for the Week 4 games. With a quarter of the regular season gone it’s now time to take the kid gloves off as the teams have given us a month of info to go on so we can confidently weigh out these wagers at their max potential.  This starts off my favorite part of the football season as the teams start regressing and progressing to their mean.  This makes a much more accurate assessment  process which should for all intent and purpose, lead us to nice profits. That’s what this is all about so with that in mind I have found some great wagering opportunities this Sunday and even have a powerful upset pick. So lets get this train rolling for another big profit week!

Dallas Cowboys +7.5 over the Denver Broncos   Bet 5 Units

Okay I know many of you are thinking I’m crazy for betting against a team that is 4-0, is led by one of the all time great QB’s in Peyton Manning, who just happens to be having his best year ever so far with 16 TD’s and 0 Int’s……..well yeah, but that’s my job. I bet with the real value of the match up and do not follow the public popularity contests, and this is a public charged betting line if I’ve ever saw one. Lets look at it closer. First off, Denver has been amazing so far and they are a great team. But this is a matchup that while Denver may still get the edge on, is far closer than more than a touchdown handicap.  It starts with Dallas being 2-0 at home this year, that’s good but there is far more.  Dallas QB Tony Romo has been quite good himself this year making far fewer mistakes than normal and throwing 8 td’s himself this year with only 1 int. They have also added a key component that has been missing from their game in the past and that is the running game. With Dallas RB Demarco Murray averaging just about 5 yards per carry that can be the key to slowing down this offensive machine of the Broncos. It’s not in Dallas’  defense so much as it will be in their ability to keep the ball away from Denver, that actually may keep the Cowboys in this game throughout. Most teams fall behind and become one dimensional passing teams and play out of their comfort zone and become predictable, and in turn easy to beat. Well in this Dallas team even if the run does falter, they have their absolute superstar wide receiver Dez Bryant for Romo to throw to. I predict a HUGE day from Bryant as he is virtually uncoverable down in the red zone. Also look for veteran tight end Jason Witten to keep the chains moving.  One last thing to remember, this will be by far the best team the Broncos have faced this season. While Dallas isn’t perfect, they are far better than 2-14 combined record of the last 4 opponents fed to the Bronco’s this year. No way this line should be this high, but thankfully for us it is. Maybe this week Denver shows its first cracks in the armor.  

  

Seattle Seahawks -1 over Colts   Bet 6 units

Thank goodness the Seahawks are still perceived to be a shaky road team as the line on this game has dropped all week from -3 down to a -1. That is a huge value moving off a key number of 3 and putting the Seahawks in the same position as last week, basically just needing a small win to cover.( a 1 point Seattle win would constitute a push, not a win, but not a loss either which does hold huge value over the -3 field goal necessity win). However looking at the Seahawks of late, they have performed just about as good on the road winning their last 6 games against the spread as a visitor. While the Colts have yet to win at home this season and are just 1-4 against the spread versus winning teams in their last 5 games. The Colts are a very good team with a great young quarterback in Andrew Luck,  but this defense is like no other out there in the league, and again I predict Seattle’s corners are going to really stymie what Andrew Luck can do with the passing game. Seattle’s defensive secondary while having huge corners in Sherman and Browner, also run highly effective and complex schemes adding to a nightmare of their big physical play. Add to this the Seahawks have got their starting defensive end Bruce Irvin coming back this week off of suspension and the pass rush just got better to compliment a shutdown secondary. I do like the Colts and I do think their time is arriving, but not this week, not against what I believe to be the most balanced and best team in the NFL. It’s a good team against a great team, and all the great team has to do is eek out a win to cover. Big value here

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Green Bay Packers/Detroit Lions take the over total 54   Bet 7 units

This  should be a fun game to watch between these two division rivals if you like offense. This game may end up being more like a video game score by the time the scoreboard cools down. The Packers have gone over the total in every one of their games this year and expect the trend to continue when the Lions come to town led by big armed QB Matthew Stafford with wide receiver Megatron (Calvin Johnson) and rejuvinated  all purpose running back Reggie Bush. While both the Packers and Lions are loaded on the offensive side of the ball, what makes this game and over the total dream is, they can give em up as fast as they put em up.  While Detroit was impressive last week in scoring 40 points against the Bears, they still gave up 32 in a game they pretty much controlled. And while the Packers have one of the top passers in the league in Aaron Rodgers along with an array of talent on the offensive side of the ball, their Achilles heel has been their inability to shut anyone down on defense. Both of Green Bay’s losses this year have seen them give up 34 points in each game. Seeing the Packers rank near the bottom of the league in pass defense at 28^th, and the Lions have protected their QB so well only allowing 3 sacks all season, I expect the Lions to get plenty of offense out of their passing game which can lead to numerous and quick scoring. This is a reason why all 3 of Green Bay’s games have hit the over total, big offense, and a defense that will bend enough for most teams to contribute to a high score. This game has potential to hit the over in 2 ways as I see it. One team jumps out to a big lead, and the team behind airs it out against a soft defense playing in garbage time, or most likely these 2 offensive machines go score for score until the end of the game. However,I do not see this game being any kind of defensive battle, nor any team being completely shut down or shutout. I have this game pushing over 60 points fairly easy with an eye on 70 for a comfortable win on our wager.