Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 13 (Sunday)

Thanksgiving is a day to give thanks to what you have, and we added lots of cash to that list with our clean sweep of winners for all our picks this past Thursday. These great results have really bolstered an already strong season. It's time now to just pad the bankroll as we look to crush the last quarter of the regular season. This Sunday we have a light slate of just a couple of plays, but that's expected as we already had 3 on Thursday. Quantity does not matter as much as quality, and rest assured, I promise every pick I give has a good shot at paying out. So let's add to our good fortune once again today with some good strong plays. Winning's our business and business is good!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Thursday's results :		+11 units won : 0.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+11.0 units
Total to date :		+14.3 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Chicago Bears/Minnesota Vikings take the over total 50 : Bet 5 units	Click Here
	Chicago Bears/Minnesota Vikings take the over total 50 : Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result: Minnesota Vikings 23 : Chicago Bears 20

While the Bears have a very slim chance to be any type of real playoff contender, and the Vikings are long out of that race, this looks to be a high scoring competitive affair. Chicago usually known for a sturdy defense, has actually depended on scoring points to win games this year as they have really not been able to stop anybody from moving the ball against them this year. This includes these Minnesota Vikings that lost a spirited contest to the Bears in the 2nd game of the season 31-30. The trend of scoring as well as getting scored on has led both of these teams to be perpetual over teams this year. The Vikings have hit the over total 9 out of 11 times while the Bears have cashed in on it 8 of 11. With the Bears giving up 28 points per game, and the Vikings giving up even more at 31, these two division rivals playing each other makes for one hell of a offensive show. The Bears have never been able to stop the Vikings RB Adrian Peterson as he has already surpassed 100 yards rushing in 6 games against them. And with the Bears giving up the most rushing yards in the league look for AP to have a monster day. With Peterson running wild that should take all the pressure off of Vikes QB Christian Ponder, and when Ponder has time and is not under duress, he actually is fairly decent, as evidenced by his 21 for 30 passing day last week with 233 yards and 1 TD. Meanwhile the Bears should have no trouble moving the ball against a Viking defense that gives up 401 yards and as mentioned before over 31 points per game. Bears back up QB Josh McCown has far exceeded any expectation since stepping in for Jay Cutler, throwing for 1,106 yards 7TD’s and only 1 Int. With weapons like TE Martellus Bennett, WR Brandon Marshall, and RB Matt Forte, this offense is really built to exploit this rather weak Minnesota defense. And don’t sleep on either of these special teams. With returner extraordinaire Devin Hester on the Bears side, and wideout Cordarrelle Patterson returning kicks for the Vikings, there is a very good possibility they will be very influential in the scoring, Whether it be them returning kicks for a score, or just great field position, I see them being a strong factor here. Patterson has already returned a kickoff for a TD in their first meeting with the Bears this season. These are two teams that are made for high scoring games, should be a fun game to watch as it flies over the total.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	New York Giants +1 over Washington Redskins : Bet 6 units	Click Here
	New York Giants +1 over Washington Redskins: Bet 6 units	Click Here

Result: New York Giants 24 : Washington Redskins 17

This is a division battle between 2 teams that have fell far short from any pre season expectations. The Giants started off with a miserable 6 game losing streak, and the Redskins have hit the skids big time while their star QB of last year Robert Griffin III has been downright awful. The Redskins are out of it, and while the Giants are still not mathematically eliminated from the playoff hunt, their loss to Dallas has put their chances of post season play on life support. The Giants had a nice little 4 game win streak that gave a glimmer of hope before last week’s loss, and although they did comeback to put up a gutsy performance, it was the first time since their win streak started that they actually faced a QB in Tony Romo that was not a scrub. Fortunately for the Giant’s defense, this week they are facing the RGIII of this year and not last, which means they have yet another subpar QB to take advantage of. If the public is still counting on betting on Washington based on the idea of RGIII being a superstar talent, then they won’t be cashing in many tickets. I’m not saying he won’t someday return to an elite status, but it won’t be this week or even this year. He appears to be somewhat injured as well as mentally shot. He has lost the confidence of a lot of his team and his situation is just a train wreck that does not equate to quality play on the field. Washington does have an excellent run game led by RB Alfred Morris, but the Giants defense has been their strength this year, especially against the run only allowing 3.8 yards per carry. If RGIII can’t get anything going I expect as always that the run game for the Redskins will be taken away, not only because the Giants could stack the box, but New York should be able to score fairly easy against a Redskin defense that allows the 5th most yards in the league. If the Redskins fall behind they will need to abandon the run to try and keep pace, that’s where it should turn ugly. Speaking of ugly, the Giants have struggled with QB Eli Manning turning the ball over, but with the return of RB Andre Brown it has opened up a viable running game again which has taken pressure off Manning and has reduced those costly turnover mistakes. Brown is also a viable passing threat out of the backfield that has added even more depth to the offense. With an outstanding receiving corp made up of Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, and Hakeem Knicks, I expect Manning to finally be able to pass effectively off the run threat and look for some huge plays downfield. I think the Giants keep their very slim playoff hopes alive for one more week at least, and Washington’s troubles continue. Don’t be surprised if RGIII is not long for the starting lineup.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 13 (Thursday)

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We celebrate this fine holiday off of our monster win this past Monday night as the 49ers easily handled the Redskins as predicted. And no Thanksgiving day holiday would be complete without a great day filled with football. Lucky for us the games today look not only to be entertaining ones, but profitable as well. So hopefully all those celebrating this holiday today can enjoy a wonderful feast with their families, while at the same time taking in some great football and raking in the dough. Its a great way to start off week 13 of this NFL season, as we look to add to our already growing bankroll. Enjoy the day!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Monday's results :		+10.0 units won : 0.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+10.0 units
Total to date :		+3.3 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Green Bay Packers/Detroit Lions take the over total 48.5 : Bet 3 units	Click Here
	Green Bay Packers/Detroit Lions take the over total 48.5 : Bet 3 units	Click Here

Result: Detroit Lions 40 : Green Bay Packers 10

A lot of the luster is off this game due to the Packers still not activating their star QB Aaron Rodgers for today, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be some fun. The Lions have their usual high flying act in the QB Matthew Stafford to Megatron Calvin Johnson connection. Also their RB Reggie Bush has been fantastic this year as well, running the ball in addition to catching it out of the back field. Against this Green Bay defense that has struggled lately giving up no less than 26 points in each of their last 5 games, Detroit looks primed to hang a big number on them. But this will not be a one sided affair. Even without Rodgers Green Bay has enough to make some noise against this suspect Lions defense. Specifically their pass defense which has yielded 276.8 yards per game passing this year and 21 TD’s through the air. Packers QB Matt Flynn looks to be an upgrade over the previous back up QB’s Green Bay has recently paraded out there and should be able to open it up enough to allow the dangerous RB Eddie Lacy to get his yards and even out an offense that has struggled recently. Last week with the insertion of Matt Flynn as the Green Bay QB there was a noticeable resurgence in the Packers scoring ability, and with a full week of practice under his belt, I feel that will continue this week. Both teams here have weapons capable of scoring from anywhere on the field, and both teams have defenses prone to allowing that to happen. I like the Packers WR Jordy Nelson to have a huge day today as Flynn’s go to guy, and no surprise on the other side look for Calvin Johnson to put up his normal monster numbers. But also watch for Reggie Bush to maybe have his best day of the year against a weak Packer run defense. It should be even softer today due to the great passing attack of Detroit. I like this game to be entertaining and high scoring, the Packers need this game badly so look for them to take chances, and Detroit has too many weapons to be silenced. Expect the scoreboard to light up like an early christmas tree today.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Oakland Raiders +7.5 over Dallas Cowboys : Bet 5 units	Click Here
	Oakland Raiders +7.5 over Dallas Cowboys : Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result: Dallas Cowboys 31 : Oakland Raiders 24

Well here we are with another traditional Thanksgiving day game with the Dallas Cowboys. It’s funny, the last time the Cowboys both won, and covered the spread on Thanksgiving was 2009 against these Oakland Raiders. Actually both teams have played well against the number this year with Cowboys cashing in to 8-3 against the spread, while the Raiders are the best at getting the money for any team with a losing record at 7-4. With all that being said the Dallas Cowboys are notorious for playing down to the level of their competition with the underdog in the Cowboys last 49 games covering 36 of them. Although Dallas has covered 8 games this year, the one game this year they were big favorites against Minnesota, they failed to cover. Dallas has some immense talent on their team, but with a flawed defense, they have proven that they are not built for blowouts, at least not in their wins. Especially against a scrappy Raiders team that has played the Colts, Broncos, Steelers, Chargers, and the Giants very tough covering each of those games. On paper with QB Tony Romo having a spectacular season and the offense having such potent weapons such as WR’s Dez Bryant, Terrence Williams, Miles Austin, and TE Jason Witten, not to mention their dynamic RB Demarco Murray, it would be hard pressed for the average onlooker not to want to throw money down on these Dallas Cowboys. Most times it’s not a bad bet, but today it is. Remember Dallas with the potent offense, has been impotent on defense. They are giving up a league worst 432.2 yards per game, and besides a decent showing last week against the Giants (a team who’s 4 game win streak was predicated on not facing 1 true starting QB), the Cowboys have gotten lit up as much as they have done the lighting. And while most of the public is unaware of this Raider team be rest assured while not well known, they are playing above public expectation. That makes them valuable in this spot. Raiders rookie QB Matt McGloin is getting his 3rd straight start and has been very good in the first 2 throwing for 544 yards and 4 TD’s with only 1 pick. And with RB Darren McFadden sidelined Rashad Jennings has proven very quietly to be a star rushing for 553 yards on 109 carries with 2 TD’s, as well as combing for over 100 yards rushing and receiving in each of the last 3 games. These Raiders should prove to be a tough match up for the Cowboys to hold down. Dallas will be able to score, but so will Oakland for sure. This will be a very competitive game that should be close to the end, probably a shock to everyone but us. And if Dallas slips up and turns the ball over, watch for more than just a cover by these Raiders.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Pittsburgh Steelers + 2.5 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 3 units	Click Here
	Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Baltimore Ravens: Bet 3 units	Click Here

Result: Baltimore Ravens 22 : Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What a game this is. Two division rivals fighting it out for a playoff berth with a history of playing smash mouth football in close games. What a great way to finish out a Thanksgiving day slate of games. As much as this game proves to usually be a close hard fought game, I really favor the Steelers in this match up today. The arrow seems to be pointing up on Pittsburgh's season at the moment while the Ravens seem to still not be able to find the consistency needed to really make a run here. It really has a lot to do with Baltimore’s lack of putting together a reliable offensive game. Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been wildly inconsistent and has already thrown 14 Int’s this year which is more than he has thrown in any of his previous 5 seasons, and has thrown at least 1 pick in each of his last 4 games. Their ground game has been pretty dismal as well, considering they have 2 talented RB’s back there in Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. Both backs have averaged less than 3 yards per carry and have only rushed for more than 50 yards in just 2 games each. Good thing the Ravens still have a formidable defense that is 7th in the league in points allowed otherwise this Baltimore team may not even be in the playoff contention. But they will have their work cut out for them as Pittsburgh comes into this game off of 3 straight wins and having a red hot QB in Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has thrown for 798 yards, 7TD’s and just 1 INT during this current 3 game winning streak. The Steelers also seem to have found out how to pass protect during this run as well giving up just 5 sacks which is probably the biggest key in their resurgence this season. The Steeler D has also run hot and cold, but with a flawed offense such as Baltimore’s I expect to see the Pitt defense that has given up less than 300 yards in 6 games this year. I like this game no matter what to be a close hard fought game that I will give a slight edge to the Steelers on. Now if you’re going to give me a few points on top of that, well I think we have found a good bet with Pittsburgh here.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 12 (Monday)

Well we went 2-2 Sunday with a big swing the wrong way coming in the Carolina game as we got nabbed by the 1/2 point hook. We did however benefit from a historic comeback win by the Patriots in an exciting game that saw them roar back from a 24-0 deficit. But what I have been waiting for this week was tonight's game. Monday night see's us wager a max bet on what I feel may be the highest value play all year. A win tonight will seal a profitable week for us as well as push us into the black for the season. Confidence level is high, so lets make some money!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		+9.0 units won : -12.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-4.2 units
Total to date :		-6.7units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	San Francisco 49ers -4 over Washington Redskins: Bet 10 units	Click Here
	San Francisco 49ers -4 over Washington Redskins : Bet 10 units	Click Here

Result: San Francisco 49ers 27 : Washington Redskins 6

Look out Washington, the 49ers are coming to town and they are looking to make a statement. San Francisco is fighting for their playoff lives and unfortunately for the Redskins, they are standing in the way of that tonight. The 49ers have had somewhat of a disappointing season so far, being 6-4 they have fallen 3 games behind Seattle so it looks like winning the division is out with only 6 games left. They have been inconsistent by starting 1-2, then rattling off 5 straight wins, and now losing their last 2. But the one thing that remains consistent is…..they beat the hell out of the sub par teams, and with Washington struggling at 3-7, they sure fit that bill. They are averaging 31 points a game against these low level teams, and tonight against a Redskin team in turmoil I expect the 49ers to light it up. Oddly enough, San Fran’s star young QB Colin Kaepernick has not passed very well or very much this year much to the chagrin of the 49er fans, but this match up vs Washington favors a real breakout game for the dormant 49er passing attack. The Redskins are giving up 275 yard a game passing, and with San Fran’s big time weapons of TE Vernon Davis and WR Anquan Boldin look for big strikes from Kaepernick to offset the potent running attack of RB Frank Gore, as well as the threat of a mobile Kaepernick himself. Washington has a great running game themselves led by RB Alfred Morris who is just 92 yards away from 1000 yards on the season. It’s no doubt the Redskins will get their yards on the ground but the 49er defense is good against the run and while I don’t think they will shut it down completely, I believe they can slow it enough to put pressure on Redskin QB RGIII to have to make plays. A year ago that would have been fine for Washington, this year RGIII is a liability in such situations. Against a lesser team with a lesser defense RGIII would maybe have a chance to get it done. But as evidenced by the pressure the Eagles defense put on him forcing him into huge mistakes, this 49ers D which makes the Philly defense look like pop warner, should absolutely control this game and force RGIII and the Washington offense into some real bad situations. It basically comes down to a 49er team needing to come in and crush their opponent to gain some momentum heading down the stretch if they have any chance of making the playoffs. The Redskins have nothing to play for and have already started turning on their QB which looks to have divided the team a bit. Washington would have to play perfect to even make this game slightly competitive, and they have not done that all year and there is nothing pointing to them doing that tonight. 49ers should grab an early lead in turn removing Washington’s only strength, the run game. From there it should get messy as 49ers just roll over an inferior team.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 12 (Sunday)

I am so pleased with the recent winning picks we have had, especially this past Thursday with the Falcons covering for us against the Saints. Of course i love to win the bets and collect the cash, but it gives me great satisfaction to be dead on with my prediction on how the game should play out. We went against the grain picking against the Saints and it paid off. I mention this mostly because it shows us that we are truly seeing these games as what they are and not at what the betting public adjusts the lines to. That means we are doing something right, and hopefully this leads to big profits. I do like what we have today so lets continue on with cashing in on what should be a big day!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Thursday's results :		+5.0 units won : 0.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+5.0 units
Total to date :		-2.5 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Carolina Panthers -4.5 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 6 units	Click Here
	Carolina Panthers -4.5 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 6 units	Click Here

Result: Carolina Panthers 20 : Miami Dolphins 16

Many are saying this may be a trap game for Carolina as they are coming off 2 consecutive big wins against the 49ers and the Patriots. Will they be able to get up for this rather mediocre Miami team after such huge victories? I say absolutely. Especially with the Saints winning this past Thursday it is imperative that Carolina win to keep pace in the division. Even though the Dolphins pulled out a gutty win last week against San Diego to slightly mask the problems they are going through amidst their team controversy, this Carolina team is far more talented and not something Miami is prepared for right now. The Miami offensive line is decimated due to Jonathan Martin leaving, Incognito suspended, and now center Mike Pouncey is questionable due to illness. This Carolina defense is not easy to handle no matter what, never mind with a depleted offensive line. Miami’s offense has been less than dynamic this year not scoring more than 23 points since week 3 of the season. With Carolina leading the league in only giving up 13.5 points per game, the Dolphins chances of breaking out this week look pretty bleak. Also with the Dolphins already giving up 41 sacks this season, Miami’s QB Ryan Tannehill’s day may be a long tough one. With Carolina being ranked 5th against the pass and 3rd against the run, Miami just doesn’t match up well with Carolina to really score any points. The Panthers won’t need a big day out of their QB Cam Newton to pull away to cover this win, but I think it will be impossible for the Dolphins to contain him. I think Carolina controls this game start to finish with a great defense, and a ball controlled offense led by Newton and RB DeAngelo Williams running against the Miami 25th ranked run defense .

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 over Detroit Lions : Bet 5 units	Click Here
	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 over Detroit Lions: Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 : Detroit Lions 21

Now I’m not ready to declare the Buccaneers ready to contend for a championship now that they have won 2 games, but they have finally found some stability where they sorely needed it…Quarterback. Bucs rookie QB Mike Glennon is just getting better and better and he is coming off his best passing effort last week going an incredible 20 for 23 with 231 yards passing and 2 TD’s. He has only 1 Int in the last 5 games, this kid keeps these Buccaneers in the game. Along with their passing the offense has been very strong and balanced. Even with star running back Doug Martin going down and then his worthy replacement Mike James getting knocked out, it seems as if Tampa has an over abundance of top RB’s to plug in because next in line Bobby Rainey just stepped in and ran all over Atlanta for 163 yards and scored 3 Td’s. Even though Detroit has some of the top offensive weapons in the league with QB Matt Stafford, “Megatron” Calvin Johnson, and RB Reggie Bush, this Buc’s team will be able to score as well, and it will be very hard to see a huge separation in score needed to cover this very large point spread. While Detroit has won at home, they have only won by an average of 4 points in their 4 home games. I think a key match up in this game will be how well Tampa’s cornerback Darrelle Revis handles Megatron. They are both tops in the league at their positions, and even if Johnson finds some room, Revis has a way of making every receiver irrelevant to the game plan. I think this is going to be a close entertaining game, and one that should put the league on notice that Tampa Bay just may have found their future at QB.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Green Bay Packers -5 over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 6 units	Click Here
	Green Bay Packers -5 over Minnesota Vikings: Bet 6 units	Click Here

Result: Green Bay Packers 26 : Minnesota Vikings 26

The Packers are not the same team since their star QB Aaron Rodgers went down. They have failed to win or cover a game since, but this week we have the factor that has been cashing in for us all year that helps us finally trust the Packers will pull this out. The secret weapon is none other than the Seattle Seahawks. A team coming off of playing the Seahawks the week before has failed to win or cover all but one time the following week. That was in the case of Arizona but they had played Seattle on a Thursday and had a few days extra rest. The Vikings are coming off a bruising loss to the Seahawks and its not just a superstition that teams usually play flatter following those kind of physical games dished out by Seattle. Even Vikings virtually unstoppable super back Adrian Peterson comes out of last week’s game hobbled with a leg injury. Even though he will be playing, with a very limited arsenal on the Viking’s side if Peterson isn’t stellar, Minnesota isn’t even competitive. And while Green Bay’s latest back up QB Mike Tolzien has had interception issues since stepping into the starting role, he has showed the ability to throw a good deep ball and rack up the yards. Minnesota’s pass defense that is giving up over 280 yards and more than 2 TD’s per game should be just what the Packer’s young QB needs to bolster his confidence. And while Minnesota’s Ponder is their most viable option at QB and has moments where he is effective, mostly in short yardage , he still has a tendency for costly turnovers that regularly breaks the backs of drives. Minnesota is just the team Green Bay needed to see at this time of struggle waiting for Rodgers to come back. The Vikes are out of it and haven’t shown a real fire to play it out in tough situations. The Packers need this win bad and have a won and covered the last 4 and 7 of 8 home games against Minnesota. Green Bay may not be the same without Rodgers, but Minnesota is pretty bad with whomever they put out there. I expect the Packers to rise to the occasion to stay in the playoff hunt.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	New England Patriots +1 over Denver Broncos : Bet 4 units	Click Here
	New England Patriots +1 over Denver Broncos : Bet 4 units	Click Here

Result: New England Patriots 34 : Denver Broncos 31

New England a home underdog……really? I don’t care who the Patriots are playing, even this offensive machine Denver, it’s usually not a good bet to go against them at home, and definitely not as the dog. No need to sugar coat this, neither team has the defense to stop the other’s offense. The Broncos led by Peyton Manning are loaded offensively at every position and Manning is having the best year of his career. Nobody can completely contain them, but then again, they aren’t containing any of the good offenses either. The Patriots finally have their full compliment of firepower on offense healthy and on the field, and it has shown as QB Tom Brady has started to look like the Brady we’re used to seeing the last couple of weeks. As well as Denver has been scoring points, I believe today they will have no real answer in how to contain Brady and company from scoring. I look for TE Gronkowski to have a huge day and for the Patriots to give as good as they get. What turns the tables here for the Patriots is a couple of things. Superior coaching by Pats head coach Bill Belichick, and a below freezing blustery day in New England. If all things are equal as I believe that to be the case with 2 good offenses with porous defenses, then we look to the fact that the Patriots may have one of the best football minds in their head coach, and that actually carries value. Belichick should be able to develop some type of defensive schemes that while not able to stymie Denver, should be opportunistic in pivotal situations. Also the cold weather favors the Patriots as Peyton’s game slightly downgrades in games below freezing. And with him playing with an injured leg, it could be just enough a factor to not allow Denver to keep up the scoring pace for once against another great QB in Tom Brady. This game should be close, but Patriots at home this year are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread, not to mention, with this coach and this QB, New England just does not lose 2 in a row.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 12 (Thursday)

It sure was nice to get back on the winning track again with Monday night's game. As predicted Carolina has shown itself to be for real and a viable contender to make some big noise in the playoffs this season. Last Sunday was a tough pill to swallow, but with Monday's win and a great wager to start off the new week tonight, we move forward onto better more profitable days.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Monday's results :		+5.0 units won : 0.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+5.0 units
Total to date :		-7.5 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Atlanta Falcons +10 over New Orleans Saints : Bet 5 units	Click Here
	Atlanta Falcons +10 over New Orleans Saints : Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result: New Orleans Saints 17 : Atlanta Falcons 13

Many think I must be crazy with this pick today. Well it's that mentality that made this pick a good one. The public money has inflated this line to the point that the ONLY value lies on the 2-8 Falcons at home. The Saints are a very good team, and they are what's called a "public" team as well. They have a huge name QB in Drew Brees and a fan friendly offense that the average bettor just loves to throw money on. Not a bad idea in general, but it can allow the square bettor to fall into certain traps. I believe that's what we have found here. Don't get me wrong, the Saints are a better team than the Falcons all day long everyday, but not to the extent to lay double digits against the home team Falcons. I would say New Orleans is probably slightly over a 7 maybe an 8 point favorite over Atlanta on a neutral field. However in this game I give Atlanta a good 3 points for home field as the Saints are nowhere near the team on the road as they are at home. So if I'm right, this line is almost double what the actual true value of the favorite should be. There are of course variables to be considered as well. The Saints now have the Carolina Panthers breathing down their neck only 1 game behind for the division lead so I expect the Saints to try and bring it tonight to not allow Carolina to gain any ground. Also Atlanta at 2-8 is done for the season and is just playing it out now as a spoiler for other teams, will they just pack it in the rest of the way? I say absolutely not. With QB Matt Ryan leading this squad and future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez playing in what he's claiming to be his final season, I believe they have way too much pride to lay down to their division rival Saints. It's clear to see the Saints are in general the much better team. Drew Brees is having an incredible year and the defense is much improved under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. On the other hand Atlanta's Matt Ryan has imploded over the last few weeks and with injuries to key players like WR Julio Jones the Falcons have just dropped off the map. But if there is one game where Atlanta can rise up, it will be this one. I expect a spirited effort from Atlanta playing in a primetime game at home tonight. A key thing to remember is, as great as the Saints have been this year, they have not translated it well away from home. They have dropped their last 2 games on the road to the Jets and Patriots, and are just 1-3 against the spread as a visitor. Up until about 3 games ago Matt Ryan was having a superb year himself doing everything to carry a struggling team with vast potential. I expect a big night from Ryan tonight and don't sleep on the Falcon's run game tonight. Although it has not been very good, the Saints are worst in the league in allowing yards per carry. This may allow just enough balance for Ryan to air out his all pro arm to compete fairly closely with a Saints team that is no road warrior for sure.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 11 (Monday)

Well Sunday sure didn't go as planned! This was the first Sunday all season we got shut out, and that does sting a little. But we can't dwell on the losses too much because there is still so much more season to go. Today we jump right back up on the horse and begin to recoup the losses of yesterday. All we need to do is keep putting out good quality picks, the rest will take care of itself. Day's like this past Sunday is why it's very important to bet within your bankroll parameters. You see even a bad day cannot wipe you out, still well funded and ready to roll. So let's right the ship starting tonight.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		0.0 units won : -15.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-16.5 units
Total to date :		-12.5 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Carolina Panthers -3 over New England Patriots : Bet 5 units	Click Here
	Carolina Panthers -3 over New England Patriots : Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result: Carolina Panthers 24 : New England Patriots 20

You won't find the Patriots in the underdog role very often but they find themselves in just that position tonight coming in to Carolina, and yes they deserve to be. Carolina in the preseason looked to have a very good team, but they started off the season a little lack luster. Well make no mistake about it, the luster is back on and this Panther team is fast becoming one of the elite's of the league. The Panthers come into this game off of 5 straight wins as well as 5 straight covers. They have been dominating their opponents outscoring them 140-57 in the process. The Carolina defense is just off the charts impressive as they are giving up the fewest yards per game in the NFC, and fewest 1st downs in the whole NFL. On offense QB Cam Newton seems to have finally matured and has developed into a very dangerous offensive weapon. With a cannon for an arm and an ability to run the ball as well as any other QB in the game, he now has the presence on the field not to make the big mistakes that so many times in the past cost his team games. While Carolina's defense is stifling, the best defense against Tom Brady and his potent offense should be the Panthers ability to control the clock and keep the fast paced New England offense off the field. Carolina has controlled the time of possession in their last 8 games and a lot of that may have to do with their ability to convert on 3rd down. They are 3rd best in the league in that department at 46.2%. They also finish drives getting into the endzone 64.3% of the time they make it to the redzone. Of course the Patriots are loaded being led by Tom Brady and with a lot of the offense getting healthy and coming back. But I look at this swarming high pressure defense of Carolina and how they were able to sack the ultra mobile Colin Kaepernick 6 times last week, and I think Brady is going to be in for a hellacious night. Aside from Tom Brady's last game against the Steelers where he really lit them up, he has not looked like the usual Brady this season. I believe Carolina will establish pressure early and never let Brady get into a flow. I also think the well balanced Panther offense will be on the field the majority of the game further negating the powerful New England offense. Carolina is a team to watch going forward this season, and this defense may be the best in the league.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 11 (Sunday)

We did it again, pulling out another win this past Thursday night as the Colts won and covered against the Titans. That just adds to our total as we are now steam rolling and just picking up momentum with every game. After a stellar week 10, week 11 has started off with this fine win, and we look to add to it today. We don't have a real big day on tap today as a lot of the games are not showing real wager value. There are a few however with one being quite valuable. Don't get me wrong there are some really fine games being played this week that should be very entertaining, but this week the better bet is to lay off of most of them. I do love a good football game, but I wouldn't lay one cent on a game I didn't think I had an advantage on regardless of how popular a game might be. That is one of the biggest differences between straight up gamblers and us that like to wager with an advantage. The gambler likes to put money down to make a game that more exciting, I do it only for profit. If there is none to be made on a game, then so be it I sit it out. With all that being said we still do have at least a few games today to cushion our now profitable bankroll, so let's pad the wallet!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Thursday's results :		+3.0 units
10% house vig on losses :		0.0 units
Total to date :		+4.0 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	New York Jets -1 over Buffalo Bills: Bet 4 units	Click Here
	New York Jets -1 over Buffalo Bills: Bet 4 units	Click Here

Result: Buffalo Bills 37 : New York Jets 14

There's been a lot of talk lately wondering if the Jets can actully be a playoff caliber team this year. There success this season has been a shock to almost everybody, including me. But if the playoffs were to start today the Jets would be in as an AFC wildcard. Well the playoffs don't start today, but it is the day for the Jets to prove they really are a team worthy of consideration. They have yet to win 2 games in a row and they need to come up with some consistency to prove they belong in the conversation as a relevant team. The stars have aligned for them this week to at least get that 2nd win in a row. The Jets who have really been offensively challenged at times this year with very few weapons to help out there rookie QB Geno Smith, get much better today with the return of wide receiver Santonio Holmes, and tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. Geno Smith while showing some real potential has had some moments of bad decision making and forcing the ball too much causing costly turnovers. With the addition of their top receivers coming back that should open up the field more for the Jets young QB and allow him to spread the ball more and really bolster the already strong running game as well. The Jets have also signed future hall of famer safety Ed Reed this week and regardless of what many think he has left in the tank, this is a great fit for the Jets secondary. Head coach Rex Ryan was Ed Reed's defensive coordinator while in Baltimore and they have a great chemistry that allows Reed to fall into the flow of this New York defense immediately. On Buffalo's side they have some problems. They have played poorly lately losing their last 3 straight up as well as against the spread. They have also played poorly at home going 1-4 ATS this year. To make matters worse they lose their 2 best receivers Stevie Johnson, and Robert Woods to injuries for today. And while the Bills have a very nice running game led by the tandem of RB's C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, without their most valuable receivers available today, that Jet defense which ranks 1st in the league against the run only allowing 73.8 yards per game, should be able to key on stopping the run today fairly easy. This game won't prove the Jets are a great team, what it will prove is they can win 2 in a row and that they are actually a good team.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Washington Redskins/Philadelphia Eagles take the over total 53 : Bet 8 units	Click Here
	Washington Redskins/Philadelphia Eagles take the over total 53 : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result: Philadelphia Eagles 24 : Washington Redskins 16

Ok this is an interesting game between two NFC East division rivals. Both teams have been wildly inconsistent this year as far as wins and losses go, but there is one thing that these teams can do and that is score and be scored on. These teams met in week 1 with the Eagles winning that one 33-27 after almost blowing a 33-7 lead. A lot has changed since that week one meeting and it all points to the score in this match up easily matching and likely surpassing that of their first game. First off the Redskins come into this game going over in their last 4 games. Their running game has been excellent led by Alfred Morris who has averaged 130 rusing yards the last couple of games, which has really opened it up for RGIII's passing attack. In those games with Morris running so effectively, RGIII has averaged b286 yards a game at over a 68% completion rate. He has shown much more confidence in that surgically repaired knee in each passing game which has led the average points scored in the last 4 games by Washington to be 30.8. Even better for our wager is the fact that the Redskin defense has been giving up 36 points a game during that same stretch. That is great news for an unrelenting Eagles offense that can score points fast and in bunches. Eagle QB Nick Foles has been absolutely spectacular since taking the job over from Michael Vick throwing 16 TD's with no Int's. Add to this that Philly also has the league's leading rusher in LeSean McCoy with 932 yards and this game looks like its got offensive explosion written all over it. And while the Eagles are not known for their defense to begin with, they have multiple injuries throughout the whole starting defensive squad that should soten up their D even more. Look for this game to start off with some scoring and as it goes on just gain momentum. It should stay competitive so expect both teams to put up points. This should fly over well before the final gun.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Denver Broncos/ Kansas City Chiefs take the over total 49 : Bet 3 units	Click Here
	Denver Broncos/Kansas City Chiefs take the over total 49 : Bet 3 units	Click Here

Result: Denver Broncos 27 : Kansas City Chiefs 17

This is one of the marquee match ups of the day. The 9-0 Chiefs come in to take on their 7-1 division rivals. Oddly to some the Broncos are a big favorite against their undefeated foe. Well their is a reason for this. And it really is what led me to going with the over pick in this game. While the Chiefs have been perfect this year and have shown a very good defense, they have done it against teams with losing records. I believe their 9-0 record to be somewhat a fraudulent representation of what they really are. Today their competition steps up to a whole new level with the Denver Broncos. Denver led by QB Peyton Manning with 33 TD's vs just 6 int's, are an offensive machine like no other. They have no less than 4 viable if not star receiving threats and with RB Moreno now running like an all pro, this team is virtually unstoppable, or at least going to score 30 points a game. The Chiefs while usually running a conservative offense, will have to pick it up to keep pace with this Bronco offense. Thankfully the Denver defense is very vulnerable and is giving up about 26 points a game. The Chiefs do have a very nice QB in Alex Smith while not dynamic in his downfield throwing, rarely turns the ball over and has good mobility to gain key yardage and first downs. The main weapon of K.C. is of course their all purpose back Jamaal Charles with over 750 yards rushing as well as 47 pass receptions he leads the team in both categories. Charles is capable of breaking a huge play every time he touches the ball and I expect him to play a big part in putting up points for the Chiefs today. Also worth noting is Denver has been prone to giving up the sack lately and the Chiefs are very stout pass rushers. Manning is dealing with a high ankle sprain today so look for the Chiefs to try to put heavy pressure on Manning to test his leg early. K.C. may actually find scoring opportunities on defense today to help their cause. I think that overall Denver will be the ones pushing the pace of this game, but I look for Kansas City to answer at least enough to push this total over and compete for most of the game.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks Week: 11 (Thursday)

Week 10 proved to be a stellar week for us. We went 5-2-1 0n the week with a +14.5 unit profit. Things are rounding out just right for us now as we are in the black for the season and we still have so much more to go to keep piling on the profit. This past week in two separate games we called for a winless team to prevail and we were correct. Not to mention we had a max bet out there and collected on it with ease. Yes, the ball does bounce funny ways sometimes leaving us on the short end, but more times than not the key aspects of our predictions play very closely, and that's what gives me great confidence that there is still far greater money to be made on this season. The teams while still full of parody are making it more obvious as this season is now in the midst of full stride, where the odds should be laid for our wagers. We have a nice little play tonight that should set us up for another fine week.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Monday's results :		+4.0 units won : 0.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+4.0 units
Total to date :		+1.0 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Indianapolis Colts -1 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 3 units	Click Here
	Indianapolis Colts -1 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 3 units	Click Here

Result: Indianapolis Colts 30 : Tennessee Titans 27

Normally a home team laying the points is a spot where you might want to take them. I don't see it in this case. I know the Colts are coming off their worst home loss in 20 years at home 38-8 against the Rams in an embarrassing game last Sunday. It has left much of the public wondering if these Colts are for real and it has pulled back a lot of money on them lowering the opening line from -2.5 to -1. To me that is perfect. This is one of those times where the "square" money is going straight on the underdog affecting the line based on a fluke ridiculous bad game by Indy. And yes it was a fluke and odds are will not be repeated against a team like the Titans. The Colts committed 5 turnovers last week and QB Andrew Luck threw 3 Int's. That's just not going to happen again, not to mention since it did, the focus on them not turning the ball over this week should be uber amplified. And what of this Titan's team? They come into this game losing to previous winless Jacksonville as double digit favorites. Well we knew that line was publicly inflated as we bet on that and won, because the Titans are just not that good, and especially not in their division as we pointed out last week. The major problem being for Tennessee now is, they have lost their starting QB Jake Locker once again, and is being replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now Fitzpatrick is actually not a huge downgrade as he can be a decent QB, but with the Titans ground game struggling, RB Chris Johnson only had 30 yards rushing on 12 carries against the Jaguars, look for Indy's defense to pressure Fitzpatrick who is prone to turnovers when hurried and hit. And while Tennessee's defense has actually been pretty good, they have been downright awful in redzone defense allowing 17 Td's out of 26 scoring plays. That is 3rd worst in the league. The Colts Andrew Luck has missed injured star receiver Reggie Wayne, but T.Y. Hilton has proved to be quite a go to guy and a true up and coming star in his own right. With Luck's mobility and arm I believe Indy will find themselves in the redzone fairly often, and with that being the case, for the same reasons, I feel they will find themselves in the endzone fairly often as well. Although I don't expect a high scoring game I expect the Colts to take far more advantage of any scoring opportunities they get. And I do not expect them to turn the ball over again like they did last week. The Titans may be able to keep the score manageable, but they just don't have the firepower to match what should be a supremely focused Colts team this week.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 10 (Monday)

That certainly was an interesting Sunday. With all that we wagered out yesterday (39 units), we rode the rollercoaster up and down all day to a modest +3.5 unit win. Of course a win is a win, so no reason to be disappointed in how much it may be. To play with an advantage it really is more of a grind of just playing the edges week in and week out, and then letting them play the game out hopefully as close to the way as we expect. So with a +10.5 profit so far this week between Thursday and Sunday's games, we look to finish off strong with a nice play for Monday night.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		+20.0 units won : -15.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+3.5 units
Total to date :		-3.0 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 4 units	Click Here
	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 4 units	Click Here

Result: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 : Miami Dolphins 19

Miami has really got some problems going on right now and I don't see how it can't have a negative effect on the field. With all the controversy brewing around the club with the Richie Incognito Jonathan Martin scandal there has to be at least some level of distraction within the team. But that to me is far less of a factor then the simple fact with Martin leaving the team, and Incognito an all pro RG offensive lineman suspended indefinitely, that Miami offensive line just got very thin and weak. They already have had trouble keeping their QB Ryan Tannehill upright this year and are on pace to give up an astounding 70 sacks and numerous vicious hits on him, well now it got just that much worse. The line play is probably the most important thing for any team in being successful whether it be offensive or defensive. So having the anchor of your line in charge of protecting the QB missing, that accounts for a lot. Don't get me wrong, the Bucs come into this game at 0-8 and they shouldn't be looked at as some ferocious team that are going to steam roll through Miami's weak offensive line. But in the same token while Tampa Bay is winless they have actually played competitive ball in most of their losses. And as much as the Dolphins could use a weak opponent right now, the Bucs could use a weaker Miami team to nail down their first win of the season. Aside from a gift win in OT 2 weeks ago against Cincinnati, the Dolphins had lost 3 in a row and hadn't looked very good. Tampa has a middle of the road defense that could be made to look better tonight with the Dolphins struggling to protect their young QB already prone to turnovers. If Tampa Bay can get some pressure you better believe that their all pro cornerback Darrelle Revis will be licking his chops waiting for those hurried passes Tannehill will be trying to get to his playmakers WR's Wallace and Hartline. On Tampa's side their new young QB Mike Glennon has really showed promise and really seems to be coming into his own. In his last 3 starts he has thrown almost 700 yards with 5 Td's and no Int's. And even with their start RB Doug Martin out for the season, his replacement Mike James has really stepped up with 55 carries for 254 yards. Going against a Dolphin defense that has given up 932 yards and 9 Td's on the ground, I see James being able to make some noise here. I think taking the home team with the points is the best play here today. At this point in the season, how the Bucs are playing vs how the Dolphins are playing, you would be hard pressed to say Miami is better. Especially in light of what they have going on at the moment.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 10 (Sunday)

This is easily our biggest week of the season so far and what a great opportunity to really cash in on some fine games this week. We go into today coming off a great win Thursday night that had us taking in a very easy +7 units. That was a nice start to the week that leads us into a monster of a day today that see's us laying out close to 40 units in 1 day! Not to worry, it just so happens we have some really big plays today and the advantage as always lies on our side. My confidence level is high that after today we will have bolstered our bankroll to new heights and fill many pockets with cash. We have 6 games on the slate today which is more than usual, but this is a good thing, a very good thing, because its rare to find this kind of opportunity in just one day. We even have a max bet today which I am 7-1 lifetime with so I like my chances. So sit back and enjoy this day, we should roll right through it cashing in all the way.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Thursday's results :		+7.0 units
10% house vig on losses :		0.0 units
Total to date :		-6.5 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Philadelphia Eagles -1 over Green Bay Packers: Bet 10 units	Click Here
	Philadelphia Eagles -1 over Green Bay Packers: Bet 10 units	Click Here

Result: Philadelphia Eagles 27 : Green Bay Packers 13

I never thought it would be possible to say this, but the Eagles have quite an edge in the quarterback department over the Packers. It would normally be an unthinkable statement with Aaron Rodgers being one of the most prolific passers ever to play the game, standing back there for Green Bay…..but the fact is, he is not. Lifetime back up QB Seneca Wallace is leading this Green Bay offense after Rodger got hurt early in the game Monday night. Well we all saw what transpired once Wallace took over. There is a reason he’s been a perennial back up for over a decade, and with Rodgers never missing a game, the rust on Wallace’s already limited skills is showing through. The fact that Rodgers was carrying a very mediocre team was never more evident until he wasn’t on the field. Sure, Packer RB Eddie Lacy has been doing an incredible job, but without a viable pass game, that run game of Green Bay’s is going be to much easier to defend by stacking the box against this young RB. Also with the Packer defense hurting as well the Packers have had to put up big numbers for wins, and with a team that is now sorely one dimensional on offense, that really isn’t possible this week. Of course Philly isn’t a defensive juggernaut by any means, but they won’t have to be. As I said this defense is going to stack it up to try and bottle up the run and force Seneca Wallace to try and beat them. It won’t happen. While nobody expects Eagles QB Nick Foles to throw another 7 Td’s in a game like he did last week, he is leaps and bounds better than his opposing QB, and Philly’s offense is ranked in the top 10 in passing and rushing so expect them to score. If they get a lead, which of course I believe they will, look for the Packers to have to abandon the run to try and keep pace, that’s where this game will be lost as Wallace does not have the bullets to out gun Philly’s top ranked offense. Another note of interest, Eagles are 4-1 against the spread this year on the road. They have played much better away from home this season, and you can add this game to that as well.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Buffalo Bills/Pittsburgh Steelers take the over total 43 : Bet 8 units	Click Here
	Buffalo Bills/Pittburgh Steelers take the over total 43 : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result: Pittsburgh Steelers 23 : Buffalo Bills 10

A lot of people would look at this game and say, are you crazy taking an over bet with these teams? My answer of course is, absolutely not. This is no longer the vaunted Steeler defense, and they no longer have any real semblance of a run game. So what that means is what Pittsburgh needs to do to compete in games is hoist their hopes on their QB Ben Roethlisberger’s big shoulders and let him throw and try to make plays. A perfect example of their troubles came in their game against New England where even with scoring 31 points, they still got shellacked and gave up 55. Now I have no illusions that Buffalo will be hanging that kind of number even on a lesser Steeler defense, but this Buffalo offense is a real problem for them. So much talk goes into the super fast paced offense of the Eagles, but it’s the Bills that have the fastest paced offense in the entire league. And this week see’s the return of their talented starting rookie QB E.J. Manuel coming back from a September knee injury. Now earlier in the year he was a dangerous running threat, but he may tone that down his first game back from injury. What I do expect is his surprising poise in the pocket for a young QB and his rocket arm to regularly hook up with their star wide receiver Stevie Johnson. This passing game should be set up quite nicely by the running of C.J. Spiller coming off a season high 116 yards rushing last week. I also think that the lack of any real running threat on the Pittsburgh side of the ball will help with pushing the scores over the total. Buffalo has 29 sacks this season which is 3rd in the league. This should put pressure on Big Ben to the point we may see some turnovers either from forced passes or from QB hits and fumbles. On the other hand Roethlisberger is a load, and is notorious for being strong enough to extend plays. In doing this he should be able to make some big plays down field as coverage breaks down. The Bills have had great success scoring points, especially on the road going 4-0 to the over this season. The Steelers season is slipping away from them and I expect them to give a spirited effort, but the Bills super fast paced offense looks to be quite a challenge for this aging weakened Steeler defense. These two match up for some scoring to be done. With the total being a relatively low number, this one should make bank easily.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Seattle Seahawks -4 over Atlanta Falcons : Bet 6 units	Click Here
	Seattle Seahawks -4 over Atlanta Falcons : Bet 6 units	Click Here

Result: Seattle Seahawks 33 : Atlanta Falcons 10

Finally, after beating opponents to a pulp the for the last year or so, the Seahawks have shown vulnerability having not covered 4 out of their last 5 games. This is perfect! It finally allows a Seattle team that although still winning, having won their last 4, to be able to have playable spreads against them. No matter how good or bad a team is it’s tough for a team to have value laying a double digit spread over another NFL team. After all, even the bad teams are comprised of professional players. Oddly enough up until this past month though, Seattle was still dominant against any spread laid against them. But just like anything sooner or later things change and the Seahawks showed chinks in the armor just enough to win most of the time but not cover. So the last few weeks saw the public still betting up this wildly popular Seahawks team regardless of their less than dazzling performances leading to over inflated unrealistic lines. The great news is the public has finally started to jump off the Seattle bandwagon enough to allow a very juicy line of -4 for the Seahawks to cover. Now is the time to bet them because they are finally able to hold big value in a non video game like expectation point spread. Actually being favored by -3.5 thru -9.5 Seattle is 7-0 in their last 7 such games. With the Falcons falling apart , and QB Matt Ryan getting pressured to carry a team with no running game, thus forcing him into 7 Int’s in the last 2 games, look for this Seattle defense to feast on Falcon today. Seattle has shown a fairly lackluster offense the last couple of weeks, although they did pour it on last week after falling behind 21-0 to come back and win that game by shutting the Buccaneers down completely and providing all the offense. I believe last week’s second half for Seattle will carry over into Atlanta this week as the Seahawks offensive line is healing and their defense can be stifling, especially against an offense so one dimensional as the Falcons that rank last in the league in rushing. There is no doubt that Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is extremely talented and will try to test the big physical defensive secondary of the Seahawks. He may even have a bit of success, but mark my words, if Ryan has to throw all day this defense is going to make him pay sooner or later and it will be very costly. I don’t see a very close game here, but even if the Falcons get lucky, the point spread is finally one that allows for the Seahawks to not have to be perfect. Even average Seahawk play will cover this game every time.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers take the over total of 58 : Bet 7 units	Click Here
	Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers take the over total 58 : Bet 7 units	Click Here

Result: Denver Broncos 28 : San Diego Chargers 20

This is an astronomically high over total for an NFL game, and yet I wonder why isn’t it even higher! Everyone knows the Bronco’s are a scoring machine as every one of their games have gone over the total with their total points per game averaging over 70 this season. You know the Broncos led by QB Peyton Manning are going to get their points in every game. They have scored no less than 33 in any game this year. Going against a Charger defense that is ranked 27th against the pass and 23rd against the run, I expect Peyton and his crew to light up the scoreboard for far more than that. But as good as the Broncos offense is, they have had to be, as their defense has been giving it up big time too. They have allowed an average of 27 points a game this year. If you were to factor in just what the defense gives up on average in addition to the lowest point total the Broncos have scored this year, it would give you 60 points. That’s pretty easy math, but it gets even easier. San Diego’s offense led by QB Phillip Rivers is far above the average at being ranked 4th in passing in the league. They will score points against this Broncos team, and I believe they will give them a run for their money. Because of this I expect a big time shootout between 2 potent offenses blasting away at defenses not built to stop the other team’s strengths. The Chargers are tough at home going 3-0 against the spread and I really think this game will be no different. They will play good and Denver will really need to light it up to win, and I expect that as well. The total on this game is 58, I believe that could be just for the 1st 3 quarters. Even with this huge total I expect no sweat here as these division rivals run each other up and down the field all day burning up the score board.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Houston Texans +3 over St. Louis Cardinals : Bet 4 units	Click Here
	Houston Texans +3 over St. Louis Cardinals : Bet 4 units	Click Here

Result: St. Louis Cardinals 27 : Houston Texans 24 (Push)

The Texans have not had much luck this year going 2-6 and accumulating those losses in a 6 game losing streak. Last week’s loss to the Colts was a heartbreaker giving it away after being up by 18. The Cardinals on the other hand have been surprisingly good and at 4-4 have a real shot at playoff contention this year. Even still, I love the Texans in this spot today. Houston despite their losing streak has real talent on both sides of the ball. Their Achilles heel this year has been their QB play and turnovers but there’s a new sheriff in town in their young QB Case Keenum looks like he has what it takes to be their QB of the future. He has played extremely well since replacing Matt Schaub and has yet to turn the ball over. Another dynamic that makes Keenum so valuable is he has finally been able to get Houston’s wide receiver Andre Johnson the ball downfield which up until recently was a big problem. The Texans running game has been a bit off and now RB Arian Foster is out for today’s game. But Ben Tate should prove to be enough of an offset to provide some relief of the Cardinals gearing up for nothing but pass rush. The Texans also still have a very stout defense led by J.J Watt that has allowed the fewest yards in the league. I believe all they need to to is provide a little pressure on St Louis QB Carson Palmer and they should be able to force him into his usual multiple turnover game. I really expect the Texans to play a great game today, the dynamic of their team has changed for the better since the switch at QB and I fully expect them to put points up on the board today. All the factors of negativity seem to be gone along with the costly mistakes and you should see the real Texan team that was forecasted in the beginning of the season to be atop the AFC along with the other top tier teams. Cardinals should have their hands full today as the Texans make a statement.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Jacksonville Jaguars +13 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 4 units	Click Here
	Jacksonville Jaguars +13 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 4 units	Click Here

Result: Jacksonville Jaguars 29 : Tennessee Titans 27

It may seem crazy to put money on a win less team, but with this inflated line, it’s actually where the value is. The Jaguars have really had an abysmal season going 0-8 so far and just playing out the rest of the season for pride. Well that does mean something. I have watched this Jacksonville team, and while not good, they have always put forth effort every week. They have and will lose consistently to the great teams like the 49ers and Broncos by double digits (although they did cover that ridiculous 26.5 point spread against Denver). But Tennessee while being a decent team is nowhere near the level of the elite teams of the league. And while of course they should be favored in this game, this line is overblown for a division rival game in which the Jaguars have consistently fared well going 4-1 against the spread with them in their last 5 meetings. Actually the Titans have played notoriously bad in their division going just 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games. I’m not saying look for the Jags to light anyone up today, but with a running game that has been improving with RB Marice Jones Drew running better of late, and QB Chad Henne playing fairly decent, the Jaguars should be able to at least possess the ball enough to keep the scoring down. The Titans will be hard pressed to cover such a big number if they don’t get the ball that often. Also something to look at is Titans QB Jake Locker has not been all that impressive since coming back and the Tennessee passing game is only ranked 24th in the league. If the Jaguars have any strengths it would be their pass defense, so look for the Titans to stay on the ground with RB Chris Johnson which again should eat up lots of clock. If the Jaguars can muster up a little scoring this looks to be an easy cover and dare I say a possible competitive game.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 10 (Thursday)

Ok, now this past Monday night game was just not fair. How are we supposed to win a game with Green Bay favored by over 10 points with Aaron Rodgers sitting on the sideline?! You cannot make game predictions with thoughts of what if a player gets hurt, so there was no way to factor the injury to Rodgers into the pick analysis. But damn, him getting hurt on the very first drive after slicing through the Bears defense effortlessly until down on the goaline.....that pretty much wiped out our edge completely. If I were to look at this game beforehand and had to factor in that Aaron Rodgers would not be playing in it, then it would have swung the value straight over to Chicago's side and would have been an easy wager. Unfortunately we did not have that option and 3 minutes into the game Green Bay lost its star QB, and we in essence lost our bet. Regardless if Chicago could move the ball well against the Packers defense, with Rodgers at the helm for Green Bay's offense the Bears offense would have barely saw the field. Anyway, that's the breaks. We move on to a new week and new chances at bringing home the cash. We actually have a great play tonight to kick start what I predict to be a huge week for us. This should be just what the doctor ordered to help us get over that horrible Monday hangover.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Monday's results :		0.0 units won : -5.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-5.5 units
Total to date :		-13.5 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Washington Redskins/Minnesota Vikings take the over total 48.5 : Bet 7 units	Click Here
	Washington Redskins/Minnesota Vikings take the over total 48.5 : Bet 7 units	Click Here

Result: Minnesota Vikings 34 : Washington Redskins 27

Believe it or not this game tonight with two sub .500 teams, really should prove to be a fairly entertaining game. The Redskins of late have really started to find an offensive groove and QB RGIII is coming off his best passing effort of the season. Washington RB Alfred Morris has really turned it up for the Redskins ground game as well gaining 686 yards on the ground at a 6 yard per carry clip. Meanwhile the Vikings of course have the best RB in the league in Adrian Peterson with 711 rushing yards and 7 TD's so far this year. Peterson had been slowed by a bothersome hamstring for a few games, but he looked back in form last week with a total of 28 touches for 177 yards. The Vikings will start Christian Ponder at QB tonight which is actually the best bet for this Viking team that has struggled mightily at that position this year. Ponder, while having problems of his own, has shown flashes of being a decent NFL QB. What works in our favor with our wager in this game is, Ponder has shown the ability to score points in the games he's played with the Vikings scoring, 24, 30, 27, 31, and 23 respectively. Adding to that he shown the propensity to make big mistakes that have contributed to the opponents scoring and field position. These are all very big factors weighing heavily toward the over total. Minnesota has also shown they can make the big plays on special teams with 2 kickoff returns for scores and a punt return TD this year. The Redskins on the other hand have actually been vulnerable on special teams this year surrendering 2 punt return Td's and a 90 yard kickoff return. To cap this off, neither team has played very good defense this year. The Redskins have played better on defense the last 3 games and the point total for those games has still been 206. This should be a fireworks show from the beginning. As poor as the Vikings have played at a 1-7 record they are still a team that plays to the over as do the Redskins. They are a combined 11-5 to the over this season and these teams are perfectly matched to put up some serious points tonight. I expect a big game from Adrian Peterson, Christian Ponder to make a few big plays, and possibly give up a couple. On the other side look for RGIII to continue his climb back to elite status with a big game against a poor defense, and heavy doses of Alfred Morris to round out a very nice well rounded offensive showing tonight. Should be a spring board game into a great profitable weekend.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 9 (Monday)

Well that sure was a fine Sunday for us! We won 3 out of 4 with the only loss coming by a half of a point that caused us to lose a damn close under bet. I never like to look back and say we could have won if this or that happened in those close call losses because it can go the same way for a close call win. Its more important that the game analysis was close and from there the odds should favor us in the long run. I am however pleased with the 8.5 unit win yesterday. But no time to rest on our good day's work, we have a play tonight to add to this fine week. A win tonight puts us in the money, right where we belong.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		+14.0 units won : -5.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+8.5 units
Total to date :		-2.5 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Green Bay Packers -10.5 over Chicago Bears : Bet 5 units	Click Here
	Green Bay Packers -10.5 over Chicago Bears : Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result: Chicago Bears 24 : Green Bay Packers 20

I may have to stop saying how I don't favor taking double digit point spreads in the NFL because I find myself taking yet another one. Green Bay is really what the sharp guys would call a "public" team as the majority of the average bettors love to put their money down on them regardless of the line. This most times skews the line to which is most times the favorite, and results in a wager of little value because its more a determination of amount wagered on the team not the value they have in the matchup of the game. This is what the Vegas wiseguys calls "square" bets and is usually a nice play for the bookmakers. I mention all of this as this game, with these teams, and this line, have all the makings of a poor "square" bet. But I assure you it is not. Based on what is found in this game, this line is under inflated and this time its the sharp guy that is taking the favorite. It's simple really, Green Bay does not lose and generally always covers against their division rivals. Since 2011 the Packers are 13-2 against the spread vs the NFC North. And against the Bears Green Bay has covered the spread the last 5 games and won the last 6. The trend in the Packers covering in their division is strong, but the actual match up in these teams today really seals the deal. The Bears would have had a handful keeping up with this powerful and now supremely balanced Packer offense even if their starting QB Jay Cutler was playing in this game, but of course, he's not. Chicago back up QB Josh McCown while actually playing decent in his game against the Redskins, will have his hands full with a much improved Packer pass defense. Over the last 5 games the Packers have only allowed 203 passing yards per game, and their pass rush has recorded a respectable 20 sacks this season. Green Bay has had to deal with their share of injuries as well this year, but QB Aaron Rodgers is having another stellar season and wide receiver Jordy Nelson has stepped up and has filled the role as the go to receiver admirably. Green Bay now also adds to their passing attack a very potent run game with rookie RB Eddie Lacy pounding the ball like an all pro and veteran James Starks adding depth to the running back position. The Bears defense is hurting and has had serious problems against the pass this year. The Bears have allowed more yards per pass this year than any team in the league. That is a very scary stat having to come into Green Bay and facing one of the most prolific passers there is in Aaron Rodgers. The Chicago defense will not be able to get off the field and in turn should wear down mightily come the second half. Green Bay will dominate on both sides of the ball and look for the Packers to steadily pull away in a rout of their division rival Bears tonight.