This is easily our biggest week of the season so far and what a great opportunity to really cash in on some fine games this week. We go into today coming off a great win Thursday night that had us taking in a very easy +7 units. That was a nice start to the week that leads us into a monster of a day today that see's us laying out close to 40 units in 1 day! Not to worry, it just so happens we have some really big plays today and the advantage as always lies on our side. My confidence level is high that after today we will have bolstered our bankroll to new heights and fill many pockets with cash. We have 6 games on the slate today which is more than usual, but this is a good thing, a very good thing, because its rare to find this kind of opportunity in just one day. We even have a max bet today which I am 7-1 lifetime with so I like my chances. So sit back and enjoy this day, we should roll right through it cashing in all the way.
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Thursday's results : | +7.0 units | |
| 10% house vig on losses : | 0.0 units | |
| Total to date : | -6.5 units |
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Philadelphia Eagles -1 over Green Bay Packers: Bet 10 units |
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Philadelphia Eagles -1 over Green Bay Packers: Bet 10 units |
Result: Philadelphia Eagles 27 : Green Bay Packers 13
I never thought it would be possible to say this, but the Eagles have quite an edge in the quarterback department over the Packers. It would normally be an unthinkable statement with Aaron Rodgers being one of the most prolific passers ever to play the game, standing back there for Green Bay…..but the fact is, he is not. Lifetime back up QB Seneca Wallace is leading this Green Bay offense after Rodger got hurt early in the game Monday night. Well we all saw what transpired once Wallace took over. There is a reason he’s been a perennial back up for over a decade, and with Rodgers never missing a game, the rust on Wallace’s already limited skills is showing through. The fact that Rodgers was carrying a very mediocre team was never more evident until he wasn’t on the field. Sure, Packer RB Eddie Lacy has been doing an incredible job, but without a viable pass game, that run game of Green Bay’s is going be to much easier to defend by stacking the box against this young RB. Also with the Packer defense hurting as well the Packers have had to put up big numbers for wins, and with a team that is now sorely one dimensional on offense, that really isn’t possible this week. Of course Philly isn’t a defensive juggernaut by any means, but they won’t have to be. As I said this defense is going to stack it up to try and bottle up the run and force Seneca Wallace to try and beat them. It won’t happen. While nobody expects Eagles QB Nick Foles to throw another 7 Td’s in a game like he did last week, he is leaps and bounds better than his opposing QB, and Philly’s offense is ranked in the top 10 in passing and rushing so expect them to score. If they get a lead, which of course I believe they will, look for the Packers to have to abandon the run to try and keep pace, that’s where this game will be lost as Wallace does not have the bullets to out gun Philly’s top ranked offense. Another note of interest, Eagles are 4-1 against the spread this year on the road. They have played much better away from home this season, and you can add this game to that as well.
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Buffalo Bills/Pittsburgh Steelers take the over total 43 : Bet 8 units |
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Buffalo Bills/Pittburgh Steelers take the over total 43 : Bet 8 units |
Result: Pittsburgh Steelers 23 : Buffalo Bills 10
A lot of people would look at this game and say, are you crazy taking an over bet with these teams? My answer of course is, absolutely not. This is no longer the vaunted Steeler defense, and they no longer have any real semblance of a run game. So what that means is what Pittsburgh needs to do to compete in games is hoist their hopes on their QB Ben Roethlisberger’s big shoulders and let him throw and try to make plays. A perfect example of their troubles came in their game against New England where even with scoring 31 points, they still got shellacked and gave up 55. Now I have no illusions that Buffalo will be hanging that kind of number even on a lesser Steeler defense, but this Buffalo offense is a real problem for them. So much talk goes into the super fast paced offense of the Eagles, but it’s the Bills that have the fastest paced offense in the entire league. And this week see’s the return of their talented starting rookie QB E.J. Manuel coming back from a September knee injury. Now earlier in the year he was a dangerous running threat, but he may tone that down his first game back from injury. What I do expect is his surprising poise in the pocket for a young QB and his rocket arm to regularly hook up with their star wide receiver Stevie Johnson. This passing game should be set up quite nicely by the running of C.J. Spiller coming off a season high 116 yards rushing last week. I also think that the lack of any real running threat on the Pittsburgh side of the ball will help with pushing the scores over the total. Buffalo has 29 sacks this season which is 3rd in the league. This should put pressure on Big Ben to the point we may see some turnovers either from forced passes or from QB hits and fumbles. On the other hand Roethlisberger is a load, and is notorious for being strong enough to extend plays. In doing this he should be able to make some big plays down field as coverage breaks down. The Bills have had great success scoring points, especially on the road going 4-0 to the over this season. The Steelers season is slipping away from them and I expect them to give a spirited effort, but the Bills super fast paced offense looks to be quite a challenge for this aging weakened Steeler defense. These two match up for some scoring to be done. With the total being a relatively low number, this one should make bank easily.
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Seattle Seahawks -4 over Atlanta Falcons : Bet 6 units |
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Seattle Seahawks -4 over Atlanta Falcons : Bet 6 units |
Result: Seattle Seahawks 33 : Atlanta Falcons 10
Finally, after beating opponents to a pulp the for the last year or so, the Seahawks have shown vulnerability having not covered 4 out of their last 5 games. This is perfect! It finally allows a Seattle team that although still winning, having won their last 4, to be able to have playable spreads against them. No matter how good or bad a team is it’s tough for a team to have value laying a double digit spread over another NFL team. After all, even the bad teams are comprised of professional players. Oddly enough up until this past month though, Seattle was still dominant against any spread laid against them. But just like anything sooner or later things change and the Seahawks showed chinks in the armor just enough to win most of the time but not cover. So the last few weeks saw the public still betting up this wildly popular Seahawks team regardless of their less than dazzling performances leading to over inflated unrealistic lines. The great news is the public has finally started to jump off the Seattle bandwagon enough to allow a very juicy line of -4 for the Seahawks to cover. Now is the time to bet them because they are finally able to hold big value in a non video game like expectation point spread. Actually being favored by -3.5 thru -9.5 Seattle is 7-0 in their last 7 such games. With the Falcons falling apart , and QB Matt Ryan getting pressured to carry a team with no running game, thus forcing him into 7 Int’s in the last 2 games, look for this Seattle defense to feast on Falcon today. Seattle has shown a fairly lackluster offense the last couple of weeks, although they did pour it on last week after falling behind 21-0 to come back and win that game by shutting the Buccaneers down completely and providing all the offense. I believe last week’s second half for Seattle will carry over into Atlanta this week as the Seahawks offensive line is healing and their defense can be stifling, especially against an offense so one dimensional as the Falcons that rank last in the league in rushing. There is no doubt that Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is extremely talented and will try to test the big physical defensive secondary of the Seahawks. He may even have a bit of success, but mark my words, if Ryan has to throw all day this defense is going to make him pay sooner or later and it will be very costly. I don’t see a very close game here, but even if the Falcons get lucky, the point spread is finally one that allows for the Seahawks to not have to be perfect. Even average Seahawk play will cover this game every time.
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Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers take the over total of 58 : Bet 7 units |
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Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers take the over total 58 : Bet 7 units |
Result: Denver Broncos 28 : San Diego Chargers 20
This is an astronomically high over total for an NFL game, and yet I wonder why isn’t it even higher! Everyone knows the Bronco’s are a scoring machine as every one of their games have gone over the total with their total points per game averaging over 70 this season. You know the Broncos led by QB Peyton Manning are going to get their points in every game. They have scored no less than 33 in any game this year. Going against a Charger defense that is ranked 27th against the pass and 23rd against the run, I expect Peyton and his crew to light up the scoreboard for far more than that. But as good as the Broncos offense is, they have had to be, as their defense has been giving it up big time too. They have allowed an average of 27 points a game this year. If you were to factor in just what the defense gives up on average in addition to the lowest point total the Broncos have scored this year, it would give you 60 points. That’s pretty easy math, but it gets even easier. San Diego’s offense led by QB Phillip Rivers is far above the average at being ranked 4th in passing in the league. They will score points against this Broncos team, and I believe they will give them a run for their money. Because of this I expect a big time shootout between 2 potent offenses blasting away at defenses not built to stop the other team’s strengths. The Chargers are tough at home going 3-0 against the spread and I really think this game will be no different. They will play good and Denver will really need to light it up to win, and I expect that as well. The total on this game is 58, I believe that could be just for the 1st 3 quarters. Even with this huge total I expect no sweat here as these division rivals run each other up and down the field all day burning up the score board.
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Houston Texans +3 over St. Louis Cardinals : Bet 4 units |
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Houston Texans +3 over St. Louis Cardinals : Bet 4 units |
Result: St. Louis Cardinals 27 : Houston Texans 24 (Push)
The Texans have not had much luck this year going 2-6 and accumulating those losses in a 6 game losing streak. Last week’s loss to the Colts was a heartbreaker giving it away after being up by 18. The Cardinals on the other hand have been surprisingly good and at 4-4 have a real shot at playoff contention this year. Even still, I love the Texans in this spot today. Houston despite their losing streak has real talent on both sides of the ball. Their Achilles heel this year has been their QB play and turnovers but there’s a new sheriff in town in their young QB Case Keenum looks like he has what it takes to be their QB of the future. He has played extremely well since replacing Matt Schaub and has yet to turn the ball over. Another dynamic that makes Keenum so valuable is he has finally been able to get Houston’s wide receiver Andre Johnson the ball downfield which up until recently was a big problem. The Texans running game has been a bit off and now RB Arian Foster is out for today’s game. But Ben Tate should prove to be enough of an offset to provide some relief of the Cardinals gearing up for nothing but pass rush. The Texans also still have a very stout defense led by J.J Watt that has allowed the fewest yards in the league. I believe all they need to to is provide a little pressure on St Louis QB Carson Palmer and they should be able to force him into his usual multiple turnover game. I really expect the Texans to play a great game today, the dynamic of their team has changed for the better since the switch at QB and I fully expect them to put points up on the board today. All the factors of negativity seem to be gone along with the costly mistakes and you should see the real Texan team that was forecasted in the beginning of the season to be atop the AFC along with the other top tier teams. Cardinals should have their hands full today as the Texans make a statement.
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Jacksonville Jaguars +13 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 4 units |
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Jacksonville Jaguars +13 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 4 units |
Result: Jacksonville Jaguars 29 : Tennessee Titans 27
It may seem crazy to put money on a win less team, but with this inflated line, it’s actually where the value is. The Jaguars have really had an abysmal season going 0-8 so far and just playing out the rest of the season for pride. Well that does mean something. I have watched this Jacksonville team, and while not good, they have always put forth effort every week. They have and will lose consistently to the great teams like the 49ers and Broncos by double digits (although they did cover that ridiculous 26.5 point spread against Denver). But Tennessee while being a decent team is nowhere near the level of the elite teams of the league. And while of course they should be favored in this game, this line is overblown for a division rival game in which the Jaguars have consistently fared well going 4-1 against the spread with them in their last 5 meetings. Actually the Titans have played notoriously bad in their division going just 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games. I’m not saying look for the Jags to light anyone up today, but with a running game that has been improving with RB Marice Jones Drew running better of late, and QB Chad Henne playing fairly decent, the Jaguars should be able to at least possess the ball enough to keep the scoring down. The Titans will be hard pressed to cover such a big number if they don’t get the ball that often. Also something to look at is Titans QB Jake Locker has not been all that impressive since coming back and the Tennessee passing game is only ranked 24th in the league. If the Jaguars have any strengths it would be their pass defense, so look for the Titans to stay on the ground with RB Chris Johnson which again should eat up lots of clock. If the Jaguars can muster up a little scoring this looks to be an easy cover and dare I say a possible competitive game.
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