Here it is, the day every NFL fan waits for every season.....the Super Bowl! While this season has not gone the way we would have liked, I look at today as a holiday that we can enjoy and cash in on at the same time. The big parties, the commercials, the A list entertainment, and then the actual game itself. Aside from all the hyperbole and hooplah, this year looks to be a good game. While it would be impossible to make up the whole season deficit in just this one game, we get a chance to add to the festivities with a nice win to end the NFL season. So sit back, eat and drink up and enjoy the biggest 1 day sports spectacle in the world! Let's just add a nice little cash in the pocket today for the cherry on top of a great game and even greater day.
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
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Seattle Seahawks +2 over Denver Broncos: Bet 6 units | Click Here |
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Seattle Seahawks +2 over Denver Broncos: Bet 6 units | Click Here |
Well here it finally is folks. The biggest day in any sport in the world...The Super Bowl!. After 2 weeks of build up and hype the game finally gets played today with the winner claiming the title of NFL champion. It would be easy to have been sucked in to all the talk these past couple of weeks regarding these teams, as every Tom, Dick, and Harry, (and Harriet), has an opinion on the outcome of this game. Most of them, really just fans or casual observers. Even some of the "expert" analysts fall into many of the traps of public frenzy bias. None bigger has been the absolute love fest going on for Bronco QB Peyton Manning. While he does deserve the biggest of kudos for probably the greatest season an NFL QB could have, and he is class personified off the field, while being an absolute football icon......this Seahawk defense doesn't give a rip about any of that. In the whole build up of this game it has been repeatedly stated how this powerful high scoring superstar led Bronco offense is like nothing Seattle has faced this year....which is largely true. On the other hand, the Broncos have never faced a defense like the one that stands before them today either. Denver has only faced 1 top 10 defense all year, today they face number 1. It's a case of #1 offense vs. #1 defense today. In Super Bowl history this has happened 4 times with the top defenses prevailing 3 out of the 4 times. A lot has been said about this being a cold weather Super Bowl and how that may effect Manning negatively. Well with unseasonably warm temps and little wind expected in New Jersey today, weather should not be a factor. What will be is a ferocious Seattle pass rush that can pressure without bringing extra men in, and the best secondary in the league led by the best cornerback in the league, Richard Sherman. Even if Manning gets the ball out quick, which I'm sure he plans to to avoid the rush, Seattle's big punishing secondary will be stuffing this all pro list of Denver WR's at the line which I believe will wreak havoc on the quick passing game. With the Seahawks ability to cover if the short game is taken away from Manning you will see that Seattle pass rush get to him, and that would be disasterous for Denver. Denver has only averaged 25 points a game in the playoffs which is far below their season average and that is due to controlling the ball with the run as well as Manning's arm. That won't be a good plan against Seattle. The Seahawks want a close low scoring game, if they get lit up early and fall behind that would be a worst case scenario for them as they are not built for a shootout against the best QB in the league. While the Seahawks are the number 1 team in the league in not giving up passing yards, they are not quite as good ranking 12th in giving up rushing yards. But against the Broncos I don't see a case where they could win this game running the ball, they need to pass and I don't think they can without consequence. Seattle on the other hand can keep the ball all day long with their ground game led by RB Marshawn Lynch and even with the legs of QB Russell Wilson who is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. While Seattle's offense has not been all that dynamic lately, they have also played a much tougher schedule with far tougher defenses in Carolina, San Francisco, and even the Saints. In today's game I look to see Russel Wilson make some big plays off an effective running game. Seattle, not Denver should control the clock today, and keeping the potent Bronco offense off the field is the best defense of them all. Seattle also has an edge on special teams in the return game so look for that to come into play more than has been talked about. Denver has struggled with turnovers in this area while Seattle has excelled. Overall a good defense in the past has usually prevailed over a good offense. But even with the rules nowadays favoring the offense, the officials in the playoffs have had a hands off let them play attitude which will help the Seattle secondary as I think they will be mugging the Bronco receivers all day. I think the biggest surprise coming out of this game will be how well Seattle's offense does more so than how their defense slows down Peyton and Co. I usually never predict scores but since this is the Super Bowl I will give it a shot. Big day for Russell Wilson on the ground and the air, and some forced errors by the Bronco offense gives Seattle the championship 31-24.
