Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks Week 4 (Monday)

Brief recap of Sunday's Results

Sunday's game this week really saw some great results as we went 3-1 and pulled in a nice +7.5 profit win. Since our tough day last Sunday we have regained our momentum and have been on a 5-1 roll since. As the weeks march on I believe so will our momentum as the teams have now really begun to play as who they are. A quick break down of Sunday's game shows win or lose what we are seeing from the teams picked, is basically as predicted.

Our first pick saw us win a close one with Seattle -1 over the Texans. I predicted it would be close, I liked the value in just needing the Seahawks to pull out a close win, which is exactly what the did. I predicted that the Seattle defense, especially that of the corners, would be the difference in the game causing mistakes for Texan QB Matt Schaub. Well as we saw his int in the 4th quarter to cornerback Richard Sherman led to the comeback and ultimate win for Seattle. They pretty much played it as if they had read my prediction.

Our next pick saw us win with Chiefs -4 beating up on the Giants 31-7. The Giants actually played tough in this game for a couple of quarters, but as predicted New York's woes have been, and will be caused by turnovers and mistakes. That and the lack of defense caused yet another miserable mistake prone loss to drop the Giants to 0-4. Yes, I said in my prediction, just because they needed a win didn't mean they were getting one. This team is bad and its time the public accepts that.

Our 3rd pick saw us win with taking the Broncos -10.5 over the Eagles. At 52 -20 I'd say we had a fairly safe bet here.More importantly, it played out exactly as expected. Philly played competitive off the bat with a good running game led by McCoy, but as the game wore on, by the 3rd quarter the Eagles were exhausted and couldn't match the firepower. Broncos just stepped on the gas at that point and cruised. The garbage touchdown Denver gave up at the end of the game betrays how lopsided this game become even with a 32 point win. Also as predicted with the Eagles being totally blown out and embarrassed, Philly changed personnel by pulling out Michael Vick and inserting backup QB Nick Foles to finish up the game. My prediction may have well been the script for the game.

Our 4th pick of the day saw us lose our over 44 bet in the Redskin/Raider game. Obviously this didn't go exactly as I had planned but my analysis of what would happen wasn't too bad. Both teams came in 0-3, and I predicted a fairly even contest where both teams would be able to score. Well I was a bit off on how well the Raiders would move the ball, but an injury to their RB Darren McFadden may have had something to do with that. I also predicted that this would be a good spot for RGIII and the Redkins to turn it around, and they did. Much of what I expected here did happen, but not enough for us to win the bet. That comes with the territory, win some lose some, but in the end win enough to make money. And that's just what we did.  

Now for today's Monday Night game:

Miami Dolphins +7 over New Orleans Saints  Bet 2 units

It's been a while since I would ever pick against the Saints at home, and with them being 3-0 and playing well on both sides of the ball it seems odd to do it now. But the caveat to this is, the Miami Dolphins are a surprising 3-0 as well, and playing very good too. Giving Miami 7 points seems more like the public betting the line up more than the actual worth of it. Considering Atlanta as a common opponent to both the Dolphins and Saints this year had both spreads at 3 points. It would seem that they were apparently fairly evenly matched. Obviously with both of these teams being undefeated they both won those games against Atlanta. Now that being said I would agree that the Saints do have an edge in this game. Two major factors being, Saints QB Drew Brees, and home field. To me that accounts for far less than a TD edge. Dolphin QB Ryan Tannehill may be the most overlooked and underrated quarterback at the moment, and that works great for us. His solid rookie year went largely unnoticed last season due to the wildly popular RGIII, Andrew Luck, and the success of Russell Wilson of Seattle. Tannehill has improved upon that in his second year and has also added a huge deep threat in Mike Wallace at wideout. Neither team runs the ball particularly well, so whoever can get something going there might gain an edge. The Saints are tough to beat at home, I would rarely pick straight up against them, but this Dolphin team has shown they can beat tough teams in the Colts and the Falcons this year, and have the grit to make comebacks. I could see a Saints win, but I do not see a blow out, I think Miami keeps this one close enough for the 7 to cover. Who knows maybe they even shock the Saints at home.  

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks Week 4 (Sunday)

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 4 (Sunday)

A bit of a bounce back Monday and Thursday has put last Sunday's 0-3 day in our rear view mirror. This Sunday is a big day as it see's us wagering more than we have on any other day so far this season. Well the reason is simple. Besides the fact I like the value in each game I picked, we are now in the 4th week of the season and its becoming a bit more clear what the teams really are. While some are still a bit uncertain, some are crystal clear. It won't take long now before all the teams basic trends will be established, but for now we have enough for a potentially huge week for us. I like our chances to really build up some bankroll today, so lets get it on!

Seattle Seahawks -1 over Houston Texans  bet 5 units

It’s a curious situation When a Seattle team that is undefeated and has been in the money all 3 games this season, is only giving 1 point to a team in the Texans who have underperformed and have finished outside the money all 3 games so far. The big knock that I have heard is that while Seattle is a beast at home, they are far less intimidating on the road. On the surface, yes that may be true, but recent history tells a little different story. Seahawks were 8-0 at home last year and have started this season 2-0 at Century Link Field. They were only 3-5 on the road last season, but that is a bit deceiving. Seattle finished last regular season with a 5 game winning streak and 2 of those wins were on the road. One against a tough Bears team the other a 50 point scoring outburst in Buffalo against the Bills. This year the trend continued with a win and cover in Carolina in a tough game but one that realized the Panthers are pretty good more so than the Seahawks have trouble.  Seahawks hit stride last year in mid season and haven’t looked back. In their last 8 regular season games they are undefeated and 3-0 on the road. Houston this year however is a team with loads of potential that should be alright as the season goes on but today is a bad day for that. With their big time wide receiver Andre Johnson riddled with injury this year,  with a failure to commit more to a solid running game, Texan QB Matt Schaub has found himself trying to force the ball down field in tough situations. While he has performed well, that is a recipe for disaster today as Seattle’s big corners take away the downfield passing, and the Seahawk pass rush just force Schaub into poor decisions. On Seattle’s side its simple, a great run game and great defense is the key to traveling well. Expect big time doses of Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch, and high pressure and big hits from the Seattle defense. With only giving up -1 today, I like the Seahawks  just basically needing a small win to cover.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 over New York Giants  bet 4 units

Who would’ve thought coming into this game the Chiefs would be the undefeated team and the Giants would be winless. Kansas City with 3 wins have already surpassed their win total of 2 from last season, and the Giants have looked of late like they would be lucky to get 2 wins this season. I have heard much this week about how it’s impossible for this Giants team to start off 0-4, they really need a win this week so they should get it. Really….why? What have they shown to warrant such confidence. Just because a team wants and needs a win doesn’t mean a thing to me if they have no recent history of getting it done. The Giants have talent but it’s not translating to any type of success on the field. They have been bad in every aspect of the game this year. They have had no running game, with running back David Wilson being prone to fumbling and Giants head coach Tom Coughlin  basically taking the ball out of his hands. The passing game has been awful. Even with the talented Eli Manning at QB he has been getting crushed and last week was sacked 6 times in practically the 1^st quarter of the game. Not being able to protect Manning has turned this Giant offense into a mistake prone turnover happy mess. And with Kansas City having one of the top rated pass rush defenses in the league, this is going to get ugly. Especially with the Giant offensive line missing its starters in David Bass and Chris Snee, and with David Diehl  hurt and doubtful, expect very little resistance in getting to the Giant QB today. The Giant defense has been poor to say the least as well. Justin Tuck looks to be a shell of himself so far this season, and Jason Pierre Paul is battling injuries and while still playing, has been highly ineffective. Injuries to the New York devensive secondary along with no pass rush has allowed offenses to light up the Giants this year. And while Chiefs QB Alex Smith is called a game manager more than a star, he has yet to throw an interception. As a matter of fact the whole Kansas City team has yet to commit a turnover. With Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles, and big time wide receiver Dwayne Bowe on offense with the highly efficient Smith at QB, expect the Chiefs to have a well balanced attack that scores just as effectively as every team has against this Giants defense. Throw on top of this playing this game in Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium, one of the toughest places to play on the road outside of Seattle, and the Giants start their season 0-4. 

Denver Broncos -10.5 over Philadelphia eagles   bet 4 units

As a rule its usually a bad idea to take any NFL team that’s giving up over 10 points in a game. That is a good rule, but there are exceptions, and this game falls right into that category. As anyone can see Denver has been absolutely unstoppable on offense this year. Well wait until this fast paced Chip Kelly style offense starts giving the ball over to this super potent Peyton Manning led Broncos offense an inordinate amount of times. The problem with the Eagles super fast paced offense has been simple, it just hasn’t worked outside of their first win against Washington. And with the Redskins now 0-3 record that Philly win looks even less impressive. With this Eagle offense trying to operate so quickly, if they aren’t effective, it just means they are giving the ball back to the opposition far faster and allowing their opponents to control the ball and in essence the game. That spells disaster if that opponent just happens to be Peyton Manning and crew. With 12 touchdowns and no interceptions,  Manning is unbelievably on his way to having his best season ever.  With weapons all over the field on offense the Broncos are going to impose their will on an Eagle defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in allowing 28.7 points per game. Just wait until that Philly D is constantly on the field, by the 3^rd quarter they will be exhausted and this game is going to get ugly. The Eagles run game has been a bright spot led by running back “Shady” McCoy who leads the NFL with 395 yards rushing. The problem with this is the Denver defense has been excellent against the run giving up a paltry 43.3 yards per game. Something’s got to give there, and with the inevitable fact that the Broncos will be scoring often, the Eagles will have to abandon the run and try to win a shootout. They can’t and they won’t. I see the Broncos rolling through this one, and possibly some big changes coming on the Eagles side with some personnel moves on the offense as well as the defense.  

  

Oakland Raiders/Washington Redskins take the over total 44  bet 5 units

Both of these teams have had their struggles this year. However the Raiders thought to be one of the weakest teams in the league going into this season have showed they are a little better than expected. The Redskins on the other hand many picked to win their division have been awful and RGIII has struggled mightily coming back from his knee injury as the Redskins have opened up the season 0-3. While I’m not calling for a winner here, I will say this game has a chance for either team as they both will have the ability to move the ball and score. The Washington defense has been downright horrible and ineffective in every aspect. The secondary was thought to be a weak point going into this season, and it has, but to add to this they have been even worse against the run, ranking worst in the league. Playing against Oakland’s star running back  Darren McFadden that is bad news for Washington. And even though Raiders starting QB Terrelle Pryor looks to be out with a concussion, back up QB Matt Flynn is a very capable replacement with the potential of some big play making ability of his own. While the Raiders have been better than anticipated they are still not a powerhouse that will be manhandling these Washington Redskins. If any team this year is going to allow RGIII to get back on track this year it will be this week against Oakland. And with Alfred Morris in the backfield running for the Redskins, you can expect that ball to be moving up and down the field. I really see both teams being able to score with not a whole lot of resistance. And with RGIII showing improvement week to week, if he gets comfortable today against a team that is very beatable, it just may be his coming out party of the season.

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 4 (Thursday)

Week 3 proved to be a challenging week for us. We had 3 losses on Sunday, but thankfully they were sandwiched in between a Thursday and Monday night win. The total on the week showed us with a -3.9 unit deficit, which really given the recommended starting bankroll of 100 units is nothing at all to worry about. The early weeks of the NFL season are always a tough time for handicapping as the teams are not quite established as who they are yet, and its in these first few weeks that bankrolls can be decimated if one is not careful. We are in fine shape as we move into this 4th week of the season. Any who have followed me over from thepogg.com know we have been quite conservative up to this point and have kept the wagering bankroll in tact and ready for the upcoming weeks. This week may see us get slightly more aggressive with the wagering amounts as we now have a few weeks of data under our belt. However there is still a few big inconsistencies in some teams, so in certain cases there will be caution taken when weighing their value. This Thursday night game has that certain feel of caution about it to many handicappers and bettors. I would agree to a certain extent if picking a winner with the line, but at the same time I see real value in the over in this game so we will jump on it and hopefully start the new week off with some nice profit.

San Francisco 49ers/St Louis Rams take the over total 42   Bet 4 units

 I know its still early in the season, but there is a lot at stake for both teams here. Whichever team loses tonight will fall 2.5 games behind the division leading Seattle Seahawks and believe me, its not going to be easy to gain ground on Seattle this year once you fall behind. The total on this game has become quite low for a 49ers team that leading into this season has really been a high scoring machine. Recent games have seen that change dramatically in 2 straight losses where they have been outscored 56-10. A 49er defense that had only averaged giving up 17 points a game the previous year has now fallen to giving up 28. I don't look for that too change too much tonight. The San Francisco defense is weakened by the losses of Aldon Smith their top pass rusher to an alcohol rehab stint, and injuries to their other top defensive players linebacker Patrick Willis and cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha..  This should allow Rams QB Sam Bradford ample time to hit his prime targets, Wide receiver Chris Givens and tight end Jared Cook. Bradford has already tossed 6 td's in the first 3 games of the season and with the Rams propensity for playing it close with the 49ers even when they are at full strength (1-0-1 straight up and 2-0 against the spread last year), I expect a big night from the Rams QB.

Now on the offensive side of the ball is where the surprise is for this usually dynamic 49er team. They looked great in their first game against the Green Bay Packers, but have dropped off into a 2 game losing streak since. I do not expect a Jim Harbaugh coached 49ers team to lose 3 in a row, and really expect a fired up and spirited effort on offense tonight. San Fran QB Colin Kaepernick has been stymied of late, but this match up against a Rams defense that has struggled against the pass bodes well for him to lead his offense to big numbers. Actually its Kaepernick's feet that should open up his passing game tonight. He has run with great success against these Rams as evidenced by his 150 yards rushing on only 17 attempts against them in their meeting last season. This should soften up an already weak St. Louis pass defense to allow 49er wide receiver Anquan Boldin to due his damage. Look for 49er running back Frank Gore to have an exceptional night as well catching passes out of the backfield as well as running the ball. Gore complained last week about his sparse use in the 2nd half of last weeks game and he was right. This game should see heavy doses of him, and that will bode well for the scoring challenged offense of late.

So I predict a closely contested game keeping with the norm that these two teams have played recently. But I do suggest that the 49ers defensive struggles continue enough to allow the pass happy Rams to score especially in the 2nd half if they fall behind which has been customary this season. I also think this Rams defense, prone to giving it up to the pass is just what the doctor ordered to get this San Francisco offense well again. If I had to pick a side I would lean to the Niners, but I wouldn't put money on it. Rams play all their division rivals tight and this should be no different with both teams running up the score.  

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 3 (Monday)

As one can clearly see there was definitely a hiccup for us this past Sunday with the picks. While going 0-3 is never a pleasant experience for any bettor, there are weeks that the NFL's parody will rear it's ugly head. That is why I always suggest you keep at least a 100 unit bankroll for your sports betting. There will be swings and strange things may happen, such as the Carolina Panthers getting their first shutout of a team in 77 games! Being able to ride out the inevitable swings is paramount in getting to the finish line of a long NFL season with a nice profit. I have little doubt we will produce nice profits this year, we just stay the course as always, and for every tough weekend, we make sure there are more than a few great ones. Which leads me right into tonight's pick. Its a good one. I believe we are finishing off week 3 with our most solid pick of the week, and a little bounce back on our bankroll.

Oakland Raiders/Denver Broncos  Take the over total 48.5    Bet 4 units

Any totals offered at 49.5 to 50, reduce bet to 3 units. Totals over 51 do not bet

I have the units weighed for the wager on this game at 4 units. Actually if this game was being played in a couple of more weeks it may be closer to a max 10 unit bet. Its still a little early in the season and a little more needs to be seen of the teams for more accurate evaluation before we jump up like that, but at this early stage of the year, its still clear the Denver Broncos are an offensive juggernaut. The Broncos have scored 90 points on their own in their first 2 games. Peyton Manning seems to be fully recovered from his neck surgeries from 2 years ago as he is absolutely carving up defenses throwing 9 touchdowns with no interceptions. Whats scary for opposing defense now is, besides having 3 top receivers to throw to in Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Eric Decker, Manning now has a viable rushing threat in Knowshon Moreno. To be fair there has been concern about the season ending injury to Broncos left tackle Ryan Clady and could it pose protection problems for Peyton Manning. I believe it to be of little concern due to the fact that Peyton is a great QB under pressure and can get the ball out quick to his talented receiving corp.

What actually makes this game very much an over game of course has a lot to do with Denver's offense, but believe it or not the Raiders really bring something to the table here as well. While I don't expect miracles from this Raider team, they have proved a bit better than expected, and QB Terrelle Pryor has given Oakland a versatile running game capable of moving the chains themselves. Actually led by Pryor and running back Darren McFadden the Raiders  have more rush yards per game and per carry than any other team in the league besides the Philadelphia Eagles, but Philly has played 1 more game then Oakland at this point. Though its been more than a decade since the Oakland Raiders have really bee competitive, they seem to get up for these meetings in Denver going 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 meetings. I am not saying that the Raiders will beat or even cover the big 14.5 point spread against Denver, I just believe they will play hard and contribute to the total.Of course I do believe the main factor in tonight's scoring will be Denver's ability to put points on the board, and with 9 out the last 12 games going over for them, I believe its a good bet tonight the trend continues.

Aramon' s 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 3 (Sunday)

Dallas Cowboys/St. Louis Rams  Take the over total 47   Bet 3 units

*If the total increases to 49 do not wager….. totals 48 to 49 wager 2 units

This looks like it’s going to be a fun one. These two teams are both coming off road losses looking to bounce back, and both are playing wide open football.  The Cowboys have just not run the ball this season so far.  In the 4^th quarter last week of a very tight game they didn’t even run the ball once. Tony Romo has thrown 91 passes in 2 games and regardless of what Dallas head coach Jason Garrett says about committing to the run more this week, they won’t because they can’t. After a huge breakout game last week, expect Romo to consistently hook up with Cowboy wide receiver Dez Bryant to torch this Rams  defensive secondary just like Arizona’s Carson Palmer did as well as Atlanta’s Matt Ryan.  On the other side of the ball the Rams Sam Bradford is really coming into his own. He has already thrown  for 651 yards and 5 touchdowns this year in just 2 games. The St Louis running game is slowed with starting running back Steven Jackson hurt, so expect big throws often downfield against a Dallas defense that ranks just 24^th against the pass. Rams wideout Chris Givens is a legitimate deep threat, along with his slot counter part Tavon Austin so look for big games from both. Rams have scored no less than 24 points in both games this season and that is to be expected again. Dallas of course will be firing away too as evidenced by if this game hits the over it will the 20^th time in the last 27 Dallas home games. This game soars over the total with ease.

Houston Texans -1 over Baltimore Ravens   Bet 2 units

*If the line reaches -2 to -2.5 bet 1 unit. -3 or more do not wager

Not a lot of confidence has been built up for the Texans even with their 2-0 start. With a week 1 4^th quarter come from behind win against the Chargers, and needing to go to overtime to out duel the Titans last week, many are thinking this is the week the luck runs out. Well, I think this is the week the Texans show up for real. The Chargers showed last week that they aren’t as bad as thought to be and the Tennessee Titans have been pretty good this year as well. So this 2-0 start by the Texans is looking more valid at the moment. Any team that has real stars on both sides of the ball like the Texans do is going to not only compete with any team in the league, they will beat most of them.  Even though monster wide receiver Andre Johnson is coming off a concussion, I still see him being a factor especially with the breaking out of the sensational rookie wideout  Deandre Hopkins to take some pressure off of Johnson.  Texan QB Matt Schaub is having a phenomenal year with 644 yards passing and 6 touchdowns, not only because of the potent receiving corp, but also due to his balanced running attack. Arian Foster has been sharing time with fellow running back Ben Tate and it has shown so far to really be a dangerous tandem for opposing defenses. Speaking of defense, what more needs to be said other than last year’s defensive player of the year J.J. Watt, the most disruptive force in any defense. Along with linebacker Brian Cushing, look for the pressure on Ravens QB Joe Flacco to be a game changer. Turnovers in this game may be key, and the Texans defense especially with the possible return of Ed Reed in their secondary should force Baltimore into some key mistakes. Ravens star running back has been hobbled with a hip injury and even if he plays should be limited. His running is key to this Baltimore offense, but his pass catching out of the backfield is equally important and cannot be duplicated by his replacement Bernard Pierce should Rice be limited or out. The Superbowl defending champs got embarrassed in week 1 in Denver, but snapped back last week in beating the Browns. I’m not impressed. This won’t be a beat down of the Ravens like in week 1, but I expect a very good Houston Texan team to handle their business and move on to an impressive 3-0.

New York Giants -1 over Carolina Panthers   Bet 4 units

*If this line moves to -3 bet 2 units…..-3.5 to 4 bet 1 units....-4.5 or more do not bet

This game see’s two surprisingly 0-2 teams battling it out for their first win of the year. This game’s point spread suggest it should be a hard fought close contest, well it may be hard fought, but It shouldn’t be that close. The Giants may be the best 0-2 team in the league, but to be fair, turning the ball over 10 times in 2 games will get you beat and that’s exactly what has been the Giants problem.  But actually, the Giants have played some tough teams in division rival Dallas, and last week with the Broncos in what has been dubbed the Manning Bowl. And aside from last weeks 4^th quarter where Giants turnovers allowed Denver to pull away in the scoring, the Giants have been very competitive. With a strict disciplinarian coach in New York’s Tom Coughlin I expect a far cleaner and better game played this week by the Giants. If that be the case, this will be a tough day for the Carolina Panthers.  Carolina has been playing poorly on both sides of the ball and has been outgained by 122.5 yards per game so far which is worst in the NFL. The Panthers also match up very poorly with their defensive secondary in shambles due to multiple injuries to almost all their starters. The Giants top notch receiving corp of Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks figure to have a huge day. And look for Giant QB to get his stats even more inflated than the over 800 yards he has already thrown. With this weak defensive backfield Eli should be able to avoid the troublesome interceptions that have plagued him recently.  Last season in week 3 as well The Giants handled Carolina easily beating them 36-7 and intercepting Cam Newton 3 times and only allowing him to rush for 12 yards. The Giants did that last year with besides Eli Manning, most of their offense out with injury. I do think Carolina has the potential to right their ship down the road this season, but this week is not their week and they matchup very badly with a very healthy Giants squad. I look for a similar result as last year in this game.