I am so pleased with the recent winning picks we have had, especially this past Thursday with the Falcons covering for us against the Saints. Of course i love to win the bets and collect the cash, but it gives me great satisfaction to be dead on with my prediction on how the game should play out. We went against the grain picking against the Saints and it paid off. I mention this mostly because it shows us that we are truly seeing these games as what they are and not at what the betting public adjusts the lines to. That means we are doing something right, and hopefully this leads to big profits. I do like what we have today so lets continue on with cashing in on what should be a big day!
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Thursday's results : | +5.0 units won : 0.0 units lost | |
| Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses : | +5.0 units | |
| Total to date : | -2.5 units |
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Carolina Panthers -4.5 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 6 units | Click Here |
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Carolina Panthers -4.5 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 6 units | Click Here |
Result: Carolina Panthers 20 : Miami Dolphins 16
Many are saying this may be a trap game for Carolina as they are coming off 2 consecutive big wins against the 49ers and the Patriots. Will they be able to get up for this rather mediocre Miami team after such huge victories? I say absolutely. Especially with the Saints winning this past Thursday it is imperative that Carolina win to keep pace in the division. Even though the Dolphins pulled out a gutty win last week against San Diego to slightly mask the problems they are going through amidst their team controversy, this Carolina team is far more talented and not something Miami is prepared for right now. The Miami offensive line is decimated due to Jonathan Martin leaving, Incognito suspended, and now center Mike Pouncey is questionable due to illness. This Carolina defense is not easy to handle no matter what, never mind with a depleted offensive line. Miami’s offense has been less than dynamic this year not scoring more than 23 points since week 3 of the season. With Carolina leading the league in only giving up 13.5 points per game, the Dolphins chances of breaking out this week look pretty bleak. Also with the Dolphins already giving up 41 sacks this season, Miami’s QB Ryan Tannehill’s day may be a long tough one. With Carolina being ranked 5th against the pass and 3rd against the run, Miami just doesn’t match up well with Carolina to really score any points. The Panthers won’t need a big day out of their QB Cam Newton to pull away to cover this win, but I think it will be impossible for the Dolphins to contain him. I think Carolina controls this game start to finish with a great defense, and a ball controlled offense led by Newton and RB DeAngelo Williams running against the Miami 25th ranked run defense .
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 over Detroit Lions : Bet 5 units | Click Here |
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 over Detroit Lions: Bet 5 units | Click Here |
Result: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 : Detroit Lions 21
Now I’m not ready to declare the Buccaneers ready to contend for a championship now that they have won 2 games, but they have finally found some stability where they sorely needed it…Quarterback. Bucs rookie QB Mike Glennon is just getting better and better and he is coming off his best passing effort last week going an incredible 20 for 23 with 231 yards passing and 2 TD’s. He has only 1 Int in the last 5 games, this kid keeps these Buccaneers in the game. Along with their passing the offense has been very strong and balanced. Even with star running back Doug Martin going down and then his worthy replacement Mike James getting knocked out, it seems as if Tampa has an over abundance of top RB’s to plug in because next in line Bobby Rainey just stepped in and ran all over Atlanta for 163 yards and scored 3 Td’s. Even though Detroit has some of the top offensive weapons in the league with QB Matt Stafford, “Megatron” Calvin Johnson, and RB Reggie Bush, this Buc’s team will be able to score as well, and it will be very hard to see a huge separation in score needed to cover this very large point spread. While Detroit has won at home, they have only won by an average of 4 points in their 4 home games. I think a key match up in this game will be how well Tampa’s cornerback Darrelle Revis handles Megatron. They are both tops in the league at their positions, and even if Johnson finds some room, Revis has a way of making every receiver irrelevant to the game plan. I think this is going to be a close entertaining game, and one that should put the league on notice that Tampa Bay just may have found their future at QB.
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Green Bay Packers -5 over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 6 units | Click Here |
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Green Bay Packers -5 over Minnesota Vikings: Bet 6 units | Click Here |
Result: Green Bay Packers 26 : Minnesota Vikings 26
The Packers are not the same team since their star QB Aaron Rodgers went down. They have failed to win or cover a game since, but this week we have the factor that has been cashing in for us all year that helps us finally trust the Packers will pull this out. The secret weapon is none other than the Seattle Seahawks. A team coming off of playing the Seahawks the week before has failed to win or cover all but one time the following week. That was in the case of Arizona but they had played Seattle on a Thursday and had a few days extra rest. The Vikings are coming off a bruising loss to the Seahawks and its not just a superstition that teams usually play flatter following those kind of physical games dished out by Seattle. Even Vikings virtually unstoppable super back Adrian Peterson comes out of last week’s game hobbled with a leg injury. Even though he will be playing, with a very limited arsenal on the Viking’s side if Peterson isn’t stellar, Minnesota isn’t even competitive. And while Green Bay’s latest back up QB Mike Tolzien has had interception issues since stepping into the starting role, he has showed the ability to throw a good deep ball and rack up the yards. Minnesota’s pass defense that is giving up over 280 yards and more than 2 TD’s per game should be just what the Packer’s young QB needs to bolster his confidence. And while Minnesota’s Ponder is their most viable option at QB and has moments where he is effective, mostly in short yardage , he still has a tendency for costly turnovers that regularly breaks the backs of drives. Minnesota is just the team Green Bay needed to see at this time of struggle waiting for Rodgers to come back. The Vikes are out of it and haven’t shown a real fire to play it out in tough situations. The Packers need this win bad and have a won and covered the last 4 and 7 of 8 home games against Minnesota. Green Bay may not be the same without Rodgers, but Minnesota is pretty bad with whomever they put out there. I expect the Packers to rise to the occasion to stay in the playoff hunt.
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New England Patriots +1 over Denver Broncos : Bet 4 units | Click Here |
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New England Patriots +1 over Denver Broncos : Bet 4 units | Click Here |
Result: New England Patriots 34 : Denver Broncos 31
New England a home underdog……really? I don’t care who the Patriots are playing, even this offensive machine Denver, it’s usually not a good bet to go against them at home, and definitely not as the dog. No need to sugar coat this, neither team has the defense to stop the other’s offense. The Broncos led by Peyton Manning are loaded offensively at every position and Manning is having the best year of his career. Nobody can completely contain them, but then again, they aren’t containing any of the good offenses either. The Patriots finally have their full compliment of firepower on offense healthy and on the field, and it has shown as QB Tom Brady has started to look like the Brady we’re used to seeing the last couple of weeks. As well as Denver has been scoring points, I believe today they will have no real answer in how to contain Brady and company from scoring. I look for TE Gronkowski to have a huge day and for the Patriots to give as good as they get. What turns the tables here for the Patriots is a couple of things. Superior coaching by Pats head coach Bill Belichick, and a below freezing blustery day in New England. If all things are equal as I believe that to be the case with 2 good offenses with porous defenses, then we look to the fact that the Patriots may have one of the best football minds in their head coach, and that actually carries value. Belichick should be able to develop some type of defensive schemes that while not able to stymie Denver, should be opportunistic in pivotal situations. Also the cold weather favors the Patriots as Peyton’s game slightly downgrades in games below freezing. And with him playing with an injured leg, it could be just enough a factor to not allow Denver to keep up the scoring pace for once against another great QB in Tom Brady. This game should be close, but Patriots at home this year are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread, not to mention, with this coach and this QB, New England just does not lose 2 in a row.
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