Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 12 (Monday)

Well we went 2-2 Sunday with a big swing the wrong way coming in the Carolina game as we got nabbed by the 1/2 point hook. We did however benefit from a historic comeback win by the Patriots in an exciting game that saw them roar back from a 24-0 deficit. But what I have been waiting for this week was tonight's game. Monday night see's us wager a max bet on what I feel may be the highest value play all year. A win tonight will seal a profitable week for us as well as push us into the black for the season. Confidence level is high, so lets make some money!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		+9.0 units won : -12.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-4.2 units
Total to date :		-6.7units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	San Francisco 49ers -4 over Washington Redskins: Bet 10 units	Click Here
	San Francisco 49ers -4 over Washington Redskins : Bet 10 units	Click Here

Result: San Francisco 49ers 27 : Washington Redskins 6

Look out Washington, the 49ers are coming to town and they are looking to make a statement. San Francisco is fighting for their playoff lives and unfortunately for the Redskins, they are standing in the way of that tonight. The 49ers have had somewhat of a disappointing season so far, being 6-4 they have fallen 3 games behind Seattle so it looks like winning the division is out with only 6 games left. They have been inconsistent by starting 1-2, then rattling off 5 straight wins, and now losing their last 2. But the one thing that remains consistent is…..they beat the hell out of the sub par teams, and with Washington struggling at 3-7, they sure fit that bill. They are averaging 31 points a game against these low level teams, and tonight against a Redskin team in turmoil I expect the 49ers to light it up. Oddly enough, San Fran’s star young QB Colin Kaepernick has not passed very well or very much this year much to the chagrin of the 49er fans, but this match up vs Washington favors a real breakout game for the dormant 49er passing attack. The Redskins are giving up 275 yard a game passing, and with San Fran’s big time weapons of TE Vernon Davis and WR Anquan Boldin look for big strikes from Kaepernick to offset the potent running attack of RB Frank Gore, as well as the threat of a mobile Kaepernick himself. Washington has a great running game themselves led by RB Alfred Morris who is just 92 yards away from 1000 yards on the season. It’s no doubt the Redskins will get their yards on the ground but the 49er defense is good against the run and while I don’t think they will shut it down completely, I believe they can slow it enough to put pressure on Redskin QB RGIII to have to make plays. A year ago that would have been fine for Washington, this year RGIII is a liability in such situations. Against a lesser team with a lesser defense RGIII would maybe have a chance to get it done. But as evidenced by the pressure the Eagles defense put on him forcing him into huge mistakes, this 49ers D which makes the Philly defense look like pop warner, should absolutely control this game and force RGIII and the Washington offense into some real bad situations. It basically comes down to a 49er team needing to come in and crush their opponent to gain some momentum heading down the stretch if they have any chance of making the playoffs. The Redskins have nothing to play for and have already started turning on their QB which looks to have divided the team a bit. Washington would have to play perfect to even make this game slightly competitive, and they have not done that all year and there is nothing pointing to them doing that tonight. 49ers should grab an early lead in turn removing Washington’s only strength, the run game. From there it should get messy as 49ers just roll over an inferior team.