It sure was nice to get back on the winning track again with Monday night's game. As predicted Carolina has shown itself to be for real and a viable contender to make some big noise in the playoffs this season. Last Sunday was a tough pill to swallow, but with Monday's win and a great wager to start off the new week tonight, we move forward onto better more profitable days.
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Monday's results : | +5.0 units won : 0.0 units lost | |
| Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses : | +5.0 units | |
| Total to date : | -7.5 units |
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Atlanta Falcons +10 over New Orleans Saints : Bet 5 units | Click Here |
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Atlanta Falcons +10 over New Orleans Saints : Bet 5 units | Click Here |
Result: New Orleans Saints 17 : Atlanta Falcons 13
Many think I must be crazy with this pick today. Well it's that mentality that made this pick a good one. The public money has inflated this line to the point that the ONLY value lies on the 2-8 Falcons at home. The Saints are a very good team, and they are what's called a "public" team as well. They have a huge name QB in Drew Brees and a fan friendly offense that the average bettor just loves to throw money on. Not a bad idea in general, but it can allow the square bettor to fall into certain traps. I believe that's what we have found here. Don't get me wrong, the Saints are a better team than the Falcons all day long everyday, but not to the extent to lay double digits against the home team Falcons. I would say New Orleans is probably slightly over a 7 maybe an 8 point favorite over Atlanta on a neutral field. However in this game I give Atlanta a good 3 points for home field as the Saints are nowhere near the team on the road as they are at home. So if I'm right, this line is almost double what the actual true value of the favorite should be. There are of course variables to be considered as well. The Saints now have the Carolina Panthers breathing down their neck only 1 game behind for the division lead so I expect the Saints to try and bring it tonight to not allow Carolina to gain any ground. Also Atlanta at 2-8 is done for the season and is just playing it out now as a spoiler for other teams, will they just pack it in the rest of the way? I say absolutely not. With QB Matt Ryan leading this squad and future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez playing in what he's claiming to be his final season, I believe they have way too much pride to lay down to their division rival Saints. It's clear to see the Saints are in general the much better team. Drew Brees is having an incredible year and the defense is much improved under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. On the other hand Atlanta's Matt Ryan has imploded over the last few weeks and with injuries to key players like WR Julio Jones the Falcons have just dropped off the map. But if there is one game where Atlanta can rise up, it will be this one. I expect a spirited effort from Atlanta playing in a primetime game at home tonight. A key thing to remember is, as great as the Saints have been this year, they have not translated it well away from home. They have dropped their last 2 games on the road to the Jets and Patriots, and are just 1-3 against the spread as a visitor. Up until about 3 games ago Matt Ryan was having a superb year himself doing everything to carry a struggling team with vast potential. I expect a big night from Ryan tonight and don't sleep on the Falcon's run game tonight. Although it has not been very good, the Saints are worst in the league in allowing yards per carry. This may allow just enough balance for Ryan to air out his all pro arm to compete fairly closely with a Saints team that is no road warrior for sure.
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