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Thursday, November 7, 2013

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 10 (Thursday)

Ok, now this past Monday night game was just not fair. How are we supposed to win a game with Green Bay favored by over 10 points with Aaron Rodgers sitting on the sideline?! You cannot make game predictions with thoughts of what if a player gets hurt, so there was no way to factor the injury to Rodgers into the pick analysis. But damn, him getting hurt on the very first drive after slicing through the Bears defense effortlessly until down on the goaline.....that pretty much wiped out our edge completely. If I were to look at this game beforehand and had to factor in that Aaron Rodgers would not be playing in it, then it would have swung the value straight over to Chicago's side and would have been an easy wager. Unfortunately we did not have that option and 3 minutes into the game Green Bay lost its star QB, and we in essence lost our bet. Regardless if Chicago could move the ball well against the Packers defense, with Rodgers at the helm for Green Bay's offense the Bears offense would have barely saw the field. Anyway, that's the breaks. We move on to a new week and new chances at bringing home the cash. We actually have a great play tonight to kick start what I predict to be a huge week for us. This should be just what the doctor ordered to help us get over that horrible Monday hangover.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Monday's results : 0.0 units won : -5.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses : -5.5 units
Total to date : -13.5 units

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Washington Redskins/Minnesota Vikings take the over total 48.5 : Bet 7 units Click Here
Washington Redskins/Minnesota Vikings take the over total 48.5 : Bet 7 units Click Here

Result: Minnesota Vikings 34 : Washington Redskins 27

Believe it or not this game tonight with two sub .500 teams, really should prove to be a fairly entertaining game. The Redskins of late have really started to find an offensive groove and QB RGIII is coming off his best passing effort of the season. Washington RB Alfred Morris has really turned it up for the Redskins ground game as well gaining 686 yards on the ground at a 6 yard per carry clip. Meanwhile the Vikings of course have the best RB in the league in Adrian Peterson with 711 rushing yards and 7 TD's so far this year. Peterson had been slowed by a bothersome hamstring for a few games, but he looked back in form last week with a total of 28 touches for 177 yards. The Vikings will start Christian Ponder at QB tonight which is actually the best bet for this Viking team that has struggled mightily at that position this year. Ponder, while having problems of his own, has shown flashes of being a decent NFL QB. What works in our favor with our wager in this game is, Ponder has shown the ability to score points in the games he's played with the Vikings scoring, 24, 30, 27, 31, and 23 respectively. Adding to that he shown the propensity to make big mistakes that have contributed to the opponents scoring and field position. These are all very big factors weighing heavily toward the over total. Minnesota has also shown they can make the big plays on special teams with 2 kickoff returns for scores and a punt return TD this year. The Redskins on the other hand have actually been vulnerable on special teams this year surrendering 2 punt return Td's and a 90 yard kickoff return. To cap this off, neither team has played very good defense this year. The Redskins have played better on defense the last 3 games and the point total for those games has still been 206. This should be a fireworks show from the beginning. As poor as the Vikings have played at a 1-7 record they are still a team that plays to the over as do the Redskins. They are a combined 11-5 to the over this season and these teams are perfectly matched to put up some serious points tonight. I expect a big game from Adrian Peterson, Christian Ponder to make a few big plays, and possibly give up a couple. On the other side look for RGIII to continue his climb back to elite status with a big game against a poor defense, and heavy doses of Alfred Morris to round out a very nice well rounded offensive showing tonight. Should be a spring board game into a great profitable weekend.

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