Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 13 (Thursday)

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We celebrate this fine holiday off of our monster win this past Monday night as the 49ers easily handled the Redskins as predicted. And no Thanksgiving day holiday would be complete without a great day filled with football. Lucky for us the games today look not only to be entertaining ones, but profitable as well. So hopefully all those celebrating this holiday today can enjoy a wonderful feast with their families, while at the same time taking in some great football and raking in the dough. Its a great way to start off week 13 of this NFL season, as we look to add to our already growing bankroll. Enjoy the day!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Monday's results :		+10.0 units won : 0.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		+10.0 units
Total to date :		+3.3 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Green Bay Packers/Detroit Lions take the over total 48.5 : Bet 3 units	Click Here
	Green Bay Packers/Detroit Lions take the over total 48.5 : Bet 3 units	Click Here

Result: Detroit Lions 40 : Green Bay Packers 10

A lot of the luster is off this game due to the Packers still not activating their star QB Aaron Rodgers for today, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be some fun. The Lions have their usual high flying act in the QB Matthew Stafford to Megatron Calvin Johnson connection. Also their RB Reggie Bush has been fantastic this year as well, running the ball in addition to catching it out of the back field. Against this Green Bay defense that has struggled lately giving up no less than 26 points in each of their last 5 games, Detroit looks primed to hang a big number on them. But this will not be a one sided affair. Even without Rodgers Green Bay has enough to make some noise against this suspect Lions defense. Specifically their pass defense which has yielded 276.8 yards per game passing this year and 21 TD’s through the air. Packers QB Matt Flynn looks to be an upgrade over the previous back up QB’s Green Bay has recently paraded out there and should be able to open it up enough to allow the dangerous RB Eddie Lacy to get his yards and even out an offense that has struggled recently. Last week with the insertion of Matt Flynn as the Green Bay QB there was a noticeable resurgence in the Packers scoring ability, and with a full week of practice under his belt, I feel that will continue this week. Both teams here have weapons capable of scoring from anywhere on the field, and both teams have defenses prone to allowing that to happen. I like the Packers WR Jordy Nelson to have a huge day today as Flynn’s go to guy, and no surprise on the other side look for Calvin Johnson to put up his normal monster numbers. But also watch for Reggie Bush to maybe have his best day of the year against a weak Packer run defense. It should be even softer today due to the great passing attack of Detroit. I like this game to be entertaining and high scoring, the Packers need this game badly so look for them to take chances, and Detroit has too many weapons to be silenced. Expect the scoreboard to light up like an early christmas tree today.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Oakland Raiders +7.5 over Dallas Cowboys : Bet 5 units	Click Here
	Oakland Raiders +7.5 over Dallas Cowboys : Bet 5 units	Click Here

Result: Dallas Cowboys 31 : Oakland Raiders 24

Well here we are with another traditional Thanksgiving day game with the Dallas Cowboys. It’s funny, the last time the Cowboys both won, and covered the spread on Thanksgiving was 2009 against these Oakland Raiders. Actually both teams have played well against the number this year with Cowboys cashing in to 8-3 against the spread, while the Raiders are the best at getting the money for any team with a losing record at 7-4. With all that being said the Dallas Cowboys are notorious for playing down to the level of their competition with the underdog in the Cowboys last 49 games covering 36 of them. Although Dallas has covered 8 games this year, the one game this year they were big favorites against Minnesota, they failed to cover. Dallas has some immense talent on their team, but with a flawed defense, they have proven that they are not built for blowouts, at least not in their wins. Especially against a scrappy Raiders team that has played the Colts, Broncos, Steelers, Chargers, and the Giants very tough covering each of those games. On paper with QB Tony Romo having a spectacular season and the offense having such potent weapons such as WR’s Dez Bryant, Terrence Williams, Miles Austin, and TE Jason Witten, not to mention their dynamic RB Demarco Murray, it would be hard pressed for the average onlooker not to want to throw money down on these Dallas Cowboys. Most times it’s not a bad bet, but today it is. Remember Dallas with the potent offense, has been impotent on defense. They are giving up a league worst 432.2 yards per game, and besides a decent showing last week against the Giants (a team who’s 4 game win streak was predicated on not facing 1 true starting QB), the Cowboys have gotten lit up as much as they have done the lighting. And while most of the public is unaware of this Raider team be rest assured while not well known, they are playing above public expectation. That makes them valuable in this spot. Raiders rookie QB Matt McGloin is getting his 3rd straight start and has been very good in the first 2 throwing for 544 yards and 4 TD’s with only 1 pick. And with RB Darren McFadden sidelined Rashad Jennings has proven very quietly to be a star rushing for 553 yards on 109 carries with 2 TD’s, as well as combing for over 100 yards rushing and receiving in each of the last 3 games. These Raiders should prove to be a tough match up for the Cowboys to hold down. Dallas will be able to score, but so will Oakland for sure. This will be a very competitive game that should be close to the end, probably a shock to everyone but us. And if Dallas slips up and turns the ball over, watch for more than just a cover by these Raiders.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Pittsburgh Steelers + 2.5 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 3 units	Click Here
	Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Baltimore Ravens: Bet 3 units	Click Here

Result: Baltimore Ravens 22 : Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What a game this is. Two division rivals fighting it out for a playoff berth with a history of playing smash mouth football in close games. What a great way to finish out a Thanksgiving day slate of games. As much as this game proves to usually be a close hard fought game, I really favor the Steelers in this match up today. The arrow seems to be pointing up on Pittsburgh's season at the moment while the Ravens seem to still not be able to find the consistency needed to really make a run here. It really has a lot to do with Baltimore’s lack of putting together a reliable offensive game. Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been wildly inconsistent and has already thrown 14 Int’s this year which is more than he has thrown in any of his previous 5 seasons, and has thrown at least 1 pick in each of his last 4 games. Their ground game has been pretty dismal as well, considering they have 2 talented RB’s back there in Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. Both backs have averaged less than 3 yards per carry and have only rushed for more than 50 yards in just 2 games each. Good thing the Ravens still have a formidable defense that is 7th in the league in points allowed otherwise this Baltimore team may not even be in the playoff contention. But they will have their work cut out for them as Pittsburgh comes into this game off of 3 straight wins and having a red hot QB in Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has thrown for 798 yards, 7TD’s and just 1 INT during this current 3 game winning streak. The Steelers also seem to have found out how to pass protect during this run as well giving up just 5 sacks which is probably the biggest key in their resurgence this season. The Steeler D has also run hot and cold, but with a flawed offense such as Baltimore’s I expect to see the Pitt defense that has given up less than 300 yards in 6 games this year. I like this game no matter what to be a close hard fought game that I will give a slight edge to the Steelers on. Now if you’re going to give me a few points on top of that, well I think we have found a good bet with Pittsburgh here.