That certainly was an interesting Sunday. With all that we wagered out yesterday (39 units), we rode the rollercoaster up and down all day to a modest +3.5 unit win. Of course a win is a win, so no reason to be disappointed in how much it may be. To play with an advantage it really is more of a grind of just playing the edges week in and week out, and then letting them play the game out hopefully as close to the way as we expect. So with a +10.5 profit so far this week between Thursday and Sunday's games, we look to finish off strong with a nice play for Monday night.
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Sunday's results : | +20.0 units won : -15.0 units lost | |
| Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses : | +3.5 units | |
| Total to date : | -3.0 units |
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 4 units | Click Here |
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 4 units | Click Here |
Result: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 : Miami Dolphins 19
Miami has really got some problems going on right now and I don't see how it can't have a negative effect on the field. With all the controversy brewing around the club with the Richie Incognito Jonathan Martin scandal there has to be at least some level of distraction within the team. But that to me is far less of a factor then the simple fact with Martin leaving the team, and Incognito an all pro RG offensive lineman suspended indefinitely, that Miami offensive line just got very thin and weak. They already have had trouble keeping their QB Ryan Tannehill upright this year and are on pace to give up an astounding 70 sacks and numerous vicious hits on him, well now it got just that much worse. The line play is probably the most important thing for any team in being successful whether it be offensive or defensive. So having the anchor of your line in charge of protecting the QB missing, that accounts for a lot. Don't get me wrong, the Bucs come into this game at 0-8 and they shouldn't be looked at as some ferocious team that are going to steam roll through Miami's weak offensive line. But in the same token while Tampa Bay is winless they have actually played competitive ball in most of their losses. And as much as the Dolphins could use a weak opponent right now, the Bucs could use a weaker Miami team to nail down their first win of the season. Aside from a gift win in OT 2 weeks ago against Cincinnati, the Dolphins had lost 3 in a row and hadn't looked very good. Tampa has a middle of the road defense that could be made to look better tonight with the Dolphins struggling to protect their young QB already prone to turnovers. If Tampa Bay can get some pressure you better believe that their all pro cornerback Darrelle Revis will be licking his chops waiting for those hurried passes Tannehill will be trying to get to his playmakers WR's Wallace and Hartline. On Tampa's side their new young QB Mike Glennon has really showed promise and really seems to be coming into his own. In his last 3 starts he has thrown almost 700 yards with 5 Td's and no Int's. And even with their start RB Doug Martin out for the season, his replacement Mike James has really stepped up with 55 carries for 254 yards. Going against a Dolphin defense that has given up 932 yards and 9 Td's on the ground, I see James being able to make some noise here. I think taking the home team with the points is the best play here today. At this point in the season, how the Bucs are playing vs how the Dolphins are playing, you would be hard pressed to say Miami is better. Especially in light of what they have going on at the moment.
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