Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 16 (Sunday)

Okay, enough is enough. We have gone from on fire to cold as ice the last 2 weeks. It happens, but of course I don't like it one bit. What I do like is our games we have to wager on today. We only have 3 but they are all very strong picks that should get us back into the winning swing again. What's great about these games we have picked is that they are all meaningful games to those playing in them. So with the right side picked, we should see a nice clean sweep of the day. Regardless of the recent downswing, I feel today is the day we rocket back into business. Playoff football is only a couple weeks away, so lets fatten up the wallet up over the next 2 weeks starting with today in anticipation of the post season!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Sunday's results :		+8.0 units won : -14.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-7.4 units
Total to date :		-11.2 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Miami Dolphins -2 over Buffalo Bills : Bet 6 units	Click Here
	Miami Dolphins -2 over Buffalo Bills : Bet 6 units	Click Here

Result:

This being a division rivalry game always makes me a little cautious when picking a team in this spot. As the week progressed it became more and more obvious to me that this was a game that was leaning fairly heavily toward the visiting Miami Dolphins side. To start with Miami is just playing fantastic lately and coming off a hard fought win against another division rival, the first place New England Patriots, Miami needs this win very badly to get themselves a playoff berth. Buffalo on the other hand is out of it and is just playing it out. I’m not saying they won’t be giving their best effort, they are after all a professional NFL team, but the Bills aren’t even at full strength, and it’s been reported to expect lots of empty seats in Buffalo today so don’t look for a raucous fan home field edge. Also the Bills come into this game hurting with starting QB E.J. Manuel out and back up Thad Lewis starting. They also lose their star receiver Stevie Johnson as he is missing this game sadly due to a death of his mother. If Miami was going to have any weakness today it would have been in the defensive secondary due to both of their starting cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Nolan Carroll playing hurt, and with rain expected, it could get slick out there. However, with Buffalo going with backup QB Lewis, and their main receiving threat not playing, Miami’s corners may not get tested today. The Dolphins on the other hand have played extremely well in December going 3-0 and are 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games. Dolphin QB has really improved lately and has thrown 8 TD’s with only 2 INT’s this month with and not posting a QB rating lower than 94.2 in the process. This is a dangerous Miami team with a lot to play for. They are in control of their own playoff destiny, they just need to win. Buffalo stands in their way today with very little to play for and as a team depleted of their top talent. This looks very good for a convincing Dolphins win today.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Kansas City Chiefs/Indianapolis Colts take the over total 46.5: Bet 8 units	Click Here
	Kansas City Chiefs/Indianapolis Colts take the over total: Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result:

As long as the weather cooperated this was a game I couldn’t wait to jump on. The only thing that could’ve kept this game under would have been high winds, which was predicted as a possibility early in the week. But as of now they look to be in the 9 to 10 mph range so, game on! The Colts have been a very up and down streaky team this year, but with that being said they have been playing better lately, as well as wrapped up their division already. They went through a stretch where they just could not score in the first half of games, but last week they broke that trend with 20 first half points in their win against Houston. While the Texans are a dreadful 2-12, they still have managed to field a top 5 defense, so scoring on them is nothing to be taken lightly. Colts QB Andrew Luck has been great the last 2 weeks throwing for 6 TD’s and just one pick as well has only been sacked once. The Chiefs defensive pass rush is decidedly worse than it was in the beginning of the season so I see Luck being able to get time to make some plays down field. Both QB’s in this game Luck, and Alex Smith also have good scramble ability that can get key 1st down yardage and are viable threats to run it in on the goaline. But to talk about running that category really belongs to KC’s RB Jamaal Charles. He has been virtually unstoppable this year running for over 1,100 yards so far and being just as effective catching passes out of the backfield. With the Colts defense surrendering almost 129 rushing yards per game, expect huge doses of Charles today, and with his play making ability, expect big time plays from him as well. Also as always its’s a given to expect fine play out of Chiefs QB Alex Smith. Never prone to make mistakes and completing 61% of his passes, he may be the most under rated top QB in the league even though he’s solid as a rock game in and game out. With the Chiefs now putting up points like crazy going over in their last 4 in a row, and the Colts going over in 6 of 8 and 7 out of their last 10, I cannot see this game’s scoring to be even slightly contained to below the total. Should be an entertaining watch for sure.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Seattle Seahawks -10 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 8 units	Click Here
	Seattle Seahawks -10 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result:

Here we go again picking another double digit favorite against the usual rule of thumb. But as usual, it most times is involving the Seahawks at home. Let’s get something straight here, Seattle just does not lose at home…..no matter who comes in there to play. Seattle QB Russell Wilson has NEVER lost in his home stadium in his 2 years playing there. It won’t happen today either, but will they cover this big point spread…..oh yeah. This Seattle home field advantage is absolutely a real part of the Seahawk dominance and a win today will seal the home field for them throughout the playoffs. They want that, and they want it bad. Nobody has been able to come into Seattle and even compete with them. A couple of weeks back the mighty Saints came in and were crushed, and by the way, the crowd set the record as according to the Guiness Book of World Records for decibel output by at sporting event. It is ear splitting for any visiting team to play their and nobody has fared well trying. It also has a lot to do with a Seattle defense that is brutally physical, and an offense led by a young star QB and a beast of a running back in Marshawn Lynch. If the Seahawks win today, as far as I’m concerned, they have written their ticket to the Super Bowl, and they are aware of that too. Watch for an absolute physical beat down of the Cardinals today to match that of what Seattle did to the Saints. The Cardinals are actually a very good team. QB Carson Palmer has played well and has been able to cut down considerably on his turnovers of late. But that was in normal circumstances, today is a totally different world. It doesn’t help that Palmer is dealing with a sprained ankle and his top WR, all pro Larry Fitzgerald is not completely healthy trying to come back from a concussion. Even when healthy Seattle is the one team Fitzgerald has not been able to perform well against with only 7 catches for 82 yards and 0 TD’s in the past 3 games. The Seattle secondary will smell blood in the water today and they will be brutal. I expect at least for this game, for Palmer to revert back to the mistake prone QB he has shown in the past. The noise of the crowd and the physicality of the defense will overwhelm the Arizona offense and cause a complete meltdown. The Seahawk offense which is very potent to begin with, should be helped out immensely by their defense setting up great field position and scoring opportunities off of turnovers. Arizona is in deep trouble today, and I predict a painful blowout.