This has been a very good week for our picks and more importantly our profit. Starting off with a great day this past Thursday going 3-0, then a fair day yesterday going 1-1. However our win Sunday was of greater value then our loss so we still managed a small profit on the day to add to our already stellar week of gains. We have a very strong pick tonight that with a win here would give us our biggest winning week of the season as well as push our profits to this season's all time high. I see no reason why this will not be the case, so let's roll on and cash in!
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Sunday's results : | +6.0 units won : -5.0 units lost | |
| Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses : | +0.5 units | |
| Total to date : | +14.8units |
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Seattle Sehawks -4.5 over New Orleans Saints: Bet 8 units | Click Here |
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Seattle Seahawks -4.5 over New Orleans Saints : Bet 8 units | Click Here |
Result: Seattle Seahawks 34 : New Orleans Saints 7
This is some Monday night prime time match up. The 9-2 Saints come marching into the home of the 10-1 Seattle Seahawks. Many believe this could be a preview of a January playoff game, and that is a fair assumption. But I wouldn't hold my breath looking for a real tight contest here regardless of how impressive the Saints record is. As I said before the Saints are coming into Seattle's house, that is probably the most relevant point in why this game may prove to be more one sided than the public would like to believe. Vegas opened up this line at -6 to start the week, which I still think was a little light and still had value for a Seattle pick. But since New Orleans is a public team the money pushed the line all the way down to the -4.5 we have now. Saints at home I could see value possibly going the other way, but Saints on the road, thank god for public money pushing lines because we can cash in on that almost every time. New Orleans is by far not the same away from their home stadium. They are 1-4 against the spread as a visitor, and there 2 losses have come while on the road. In Atlanta last week this high powered Saints offense could only muster 17 points and was in a dog fight the whole game with the lowly Falcons until they finally pulled out a 4 point victory.....as a 10 point favorite. Now every match up has its own dynamic and I try to never soley judge a team on how they played against a different team. But I will tell you this, if the Saints don't raise there level of road play to monster heights over what they showed in Atlanta, this Seahawk team will absolutely crush them. The Saints also do not do well as underdogs only going 6-8 in their recent history. This shows that when they don't have the edge for whatever reason, it's usually justified. Looking at the Seahawks at home, well they are just the polar opposite of the Saints on the road. Seattle has won 13 in a row at home covering the spread in 10 of them. Seahawk QB Russell Wilson in his 2nd season, has never lost a game at home. Seattle is by far the most dominant team at home over the last 2 seasons. As much as the home/visitor angle is a strong factor in Seattle's favor, the actual in game bias leans that way too. Let's face it Drew Brees is one of the greatest QB's of all time and the Saints offense is loaded with weapons. But Seattle is possibly the most physically brutal defense in the league and if there is one unit that is built for at least slowing down Brees and Co. its the Seahawk's secondary. Even with losing corner Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond, Seattle's secondary still has huge depth with Richard Sherman and incredible safety play in Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor. I expect the Saints to get some yardage as it's damn near impossible to shut Brees down completely, but I cannot see a scenario where the Saints can light it up against this defense. There in lies the problem, because I can in no way see a scenario where the Saints defense can hold down this Seattle offense. The Saints are very poor against the run and with Seattle's beast RB Marshawn Lynch this will be a huge problem. QB Russel Wilson has run for over 400 yards himself this year as well, which makes him supremely dangerous seeing that he's an excellent passer as well. The Saint's should struggle mightily in trying to contain Wilson and there is no way they will be able to control Lynch. I see this game unfolding as a slow methodical beatdown that by the end the Seahawks soundly defeat the Saints. This game will be a statement game in which it will be pronounced loudly that all playoff games will be going through Seattle this year, and that's a pretty scary thought for anyone not having a Seahawk on their helmet.
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