Okay what we have to do is wipe the memory of week 14 from our memory. It was a bad week, we still managed to get through it with still being positive for the season, but it was just an all out bad week. However, this happens and we cannot dwell on it, same as we can't sit and gloat over the good weeks. There is still more work to be done and still over a month and a half to get this season right where we want it. It starts here tonight as we have 2 nice bets on 1 game. We do not try to make up losses, we just try to compile wins, and I think we got a nice start with tonight's plays. Time to get the ball rolling again!
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Monday's results : | +8.0 units won : -10.0 units lost | |
| Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses : | -3.0 units | |
| Total to date : | +7.2units |
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Denver Broncos -10 over San Diego Chargers: Bet 5 units | Click Here |
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Denver Broncos -10 over San Diego Chargers : Bet 5 units | Click Here |
Result:
On the surface it always bothers me to see double digit point spreads for NFL teams. It's just usually not the best idea to take a pro team giving that many points. Especially a division rivalry game. Its usually the sharps that will take the underdog in this situation and leave the public to play fanboy and just bet up the favorite. Well this time the public has got it right. Actually with rules in the NFL changing to totally aid offenses nowadays, point spreads this big are not the same trap as they used to be. And when you have the most prolific offense in Denver, with the top QB in the league in Peyton Manning, playing at home against a team they already beat on the road by 8 points, I like my chances giving the points. Giving Manning and CO. another look at this pretty poor pass defense of San Diego that is giving up 266.7 yards per game against the mere mortals of the league, lends me to believe Peyton will actually improve on his last performance of over 400 yards passing with 4 TD's against theses Chargers. Now that Denver is running the ball more effectively as well, look for them to exploit San Diego on the ground as well as the Chargers have been poor in that area of late giving up 5 yards per carry over the last 5 games. San Diego has been pretty good on offense this year with QB Phillip Rivers having a fantastic year, but there is not a team in the league that can match this Bronco offense score for score. The only way to get the best of this Denver team is to have a great defense and an offense that can hold the ball for a long time and score touchdowns when they get in the red zone. Well its already been determined that the Chargers defense is nothing special, and last time these two played the Chargers only got a TD in the redzone 1 out 4 times. The Broncos will score a league best touchdown almost 80% of the time they get within the 20 yard line. San Diego cannot match the Denver TD's with field goals and expect to stay in this game. I believe Denver's defense is weak enough to bend and give up some points, but I believe their offense is a an absolutely unmatched force and should slowly space themselves from a Charger team that will have no real answers for a full 4 quarters of Peyton Manning.
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Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers take the over total 56.5: Bet 5 units | Click Here |
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Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers take the over total 56.5 : Bet 5 units | Click Here |
Result:
For much of what makes the Denver Broncos able to cover a double digit point spread in this game, is what will send this game over the total as well. This is the 2nd meeting between these 2 division rivals and anytime Peyton Manning can get a 2nd look at a defense that he already picked apart for 400 yards and 4 td's, expect even more this time around. Denver seems to be hitting stride now after having a mid season lull where they didn't cover 3 straight, they have now covered 5 of their last 6. And if they cover this 10 point spread like I believe they will that should lead to a lot of points as I also believe the Chargers will put up a few of there own. If there has been 1 knock against these Broncos it would be their defense, as it has been susceptible to giving up points. It has been a reason that Denver's games have gone over 11 out of 13 times this season. And since Peyton Manning has been on this Bronco team they have hit that over a staggering 22 out of 30 times. Tonight should be no different. The Chargers are no slouches in the offensive department and should be able to move the ball against this Bronco D fairly well. Phillip Rivers will lead a very balanced offense to score at least the 20 points they scored in their first meeting. But this over will squarely be Denver's doing. I expect them to have the 28 total points they scored in their game with the Chargers last time in San Diego by halftime. Denver at home is a dangerous team and they are still playing meaningful games so expect the pedal to the metal for at least 3 quarters. By the 4th the lead should be big enough where San Diego may be able to just pad the total with some garbage points as Denver cruises. It's a high total, but by halftime it will look like it should have been much higher.
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