We find ourselves in the unenviable position of trying to climb out of a huge deficit to try and save the season. The past few weeks have been as bad as I have ever seen. But believe it or not, it's no time to dispair. We have some really great wagers today that if we can finally catch a break, could put us back in striking distance to pull off a decent run through the playoffs. But we really need today, so the pressure is on. No problem, the beatdown we have taken ends today and its payback time! Actually it would be nice to just finally get paid, and it starts today.
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Sunday's results : | 0.0 units won : -26.0 units lost | |
| Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses : | -28.6 units | |
| Total to date : | -39.8 units |
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Detroit Lions +3 over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 3 units | Click Here |
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Detroit Lions +3 over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 3 units | Click Here |
Result:
This is pretty much what is called a dead game. Two teams playing out the season with no chance of making the playoffs. The Vikings have been dead all year as they have really had a dreadful season, but the Lions just 2 weeks ago looked destined for a playoff spot. Detroit’s heartbreaking overtime loss last week to the Giants sealed their fate for any post season play and has them coming into Minnesota playing for nothing other than pride. The Vegas lines makers have said that this game would have actually been at least a 7 point reversal making the Lions about a -4 favorite had the Lions needed this game for a playoff spot. With this being said, it is clear to me that the Lions are the better team on both sides of the ball today. Especially with the Viking’s superstar RB Adrian Peterson not playing in this game due to injury. So with no Peterson and the Viking’s not being able to stop anybody’s offense, let alone a very potent balanced attack such as Detroit’s, the lean has to go with a Lion straight up win. Getting points for Detroit in this spot just strengthens it to an actual decent bet on an otherwise meaningless game.
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Cincinnati Bengals -7 over Baltimore Ravens: Bet 6 units | Click Here |
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Cincinnati Bengal -7 over Baltimore Ravens: Bet 6 units | Click Here |
Result:
Ravens are fighting for their playoff lives today, this is a must win for them. That is the only factor they have in their favor here, and it won’t mean all that much. The Bengals at home this season are 7-0 straight up as well as against the spread. They have cashed in better than any team in the league when playing at home this year, even better than the famous hometown crushers, the Seattle Seahawks. Cincinnati also has a reason to win this game today as a win today could put them in a position for a first round bye in the playoffs, so don’t look for them to take this game lightly cruising into the post season. This Bengals team has an incredible defense second only to Seattle in allowing only 4.8 yards per play. That does not bode well for an incredibly struggling Raven offense that has not managed to put up more than 22 points in the last 10 games. The Ravens defense has been pretty decent this year in their own right, and has been what has kept the Ravens even close to contention. But Baltimore finds themselves in a position today going up against a defense superior to their own, and an offense absolutely loaded with weapons. Cincy QB Andy Dalton has really stepped it up heading down the stretch not throwing a pick in the last 3 games, and with over 4,000 yards passing and 31 TD’s on the year he has showed that he is a top NFL QB. The Ravens just needing this win will not be enough to get the job done playing in Cincinnati today, they just don’t have the firepower to pull it off. No other team has been able to do it this year, and certainly neither will an anemic Raven offense going up against this powerful Bengal defense that still has a reason to play hard to the end.
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San Francisco 49ers/Arizona Cardinals take the under total 41.5 : Bet 7 units | Click Here |
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San Francisco 49ers/Arizona Cardinals take the over total 41.5 : Bet 7 units | Click Here |
Result:
This game should prove to be an intense defensive battle, at least to start. The 49ers have an outside chance to get the top seed in the playoff rankings with a win and a Seattle loss, while the Cardinals need a win to at least get a chance at a playoff berth. They would also need help with a Saints loss today. This match up has all the makings of a possible hard hitting low scoring classic. The 49ers have been good this year and it’s primarily due to a very powerful defense. San Fran ranks 5th in run defense and 4th against the pass. They have needed that as their offense has been far less potent this year with a passing attack surprisingly ranked 31st this year. Their offense this season has been mostly built around a potent run game led by RB Frank Gore who has rushed for over 1,100 yards and 9 TD’s. The problem may lie with the fact the 49ers will need to try to run the ball today against the number 1 run defense in the league in this Cardinal defensive squad. This is going to lead to stalled drives and lots of clock getting eaten up. Don’t look for the Cardinal offense to fair much better. With this ferocious pass rush of the 49ers, look for Arizona QB Carson Palmer to get hit a lot today, and very likely toss a couple to receivers in the wrong jersey. Palmer has thrown more multiple INT games, 7, than games in which he has thrown none, 4. So even if Arizona can move the ball some, I can’t see any consistency that would allow much scoring going against this 49er defense. If in the Seattle game the Seahawks jump out to a big lead, you may see the 49ers pull out some starters as they no longer need to risk injury to them as they could not advance their playoff position further. This would only help our cause as their would be virtually no offense on the field for the Niners late in the game. If you like a good smash mouth defensive battle, this should be the game to watch.
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Denver Broncos -11 over Oakland Raiders : Bet 10 units | Click Here |
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Denver Broncos -11 over Oakland Raiders: Bet 10 units | Click Here |
Result:
The Oakland Raiders cannot stop this Bronco offense. It’s that simple. Add on that Denver has something to play for as they need a win to sew up the home field throughout the playoffs, and this game looks to get ugly quick and stay that way. Not that Peyton Manning cares much about personal records over wins, but he also needs just 266 yards to break the single season all time passing record set by Drew Brees. There is no way Denver is pulling Manning out of this game without getting that record. Although, it’s a very good possibility he may get that by halftime as well as add to his already single season record total of 51 TD’s. The Broncos have already beaten the Raiders this year by 16 points and it was only that close by Denver basically doing nothing at the end of the game and allowing 2 late garbage Oakland TD’s. Even if that becomes the case, the Broncos lead should be so much that even with a similar scoring scenario the 2 TD+ lead easily covers. The Raiders while having some glimpses of decent play occasionally this year, have really just lost their way coming down the stretch losing their last 5 and going 1-4 against the spread. Denver has had its issues defensively this year, but the one thing they have done is handle bad teams easily. The Raiders certainly qualify as that. This is a case where even a perfect game from Oakland would not be enough to keep pace with this Bronco offense. In a game they need Denver should step on the gas early and keep it there until the end. This is going to be a route that allows Denver to cruise into the playoffs the number 1 AFC seed.
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