I can feel that momentum building now. After sweeping the late games on Sunday and then getting a nice win on Thursday, we are rolling and have put ourselves to surge to big profits this week. I feel extremely confident that now that we have hit the mid point of the regular season this roll we have started will continue to propel us far into the black. I love these picks today and am confident that we may actually get our first sweep of the year. It's at this time of the year that we make our move towards not only profit but to a point where we can sustain that profit through the inevitable swings. Today is the start as we enjoy what should be a great and very lucrative day!
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Thursday's results : | +4.0 units | |
| 10% house vig on losses : | 0.0 units | |
| Total to date : | -5.5 units |
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New England Patriots -6 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 7 units |
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New England Patriots -6 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 7 units |
Result: New England Patriots 27 : Miami Dolphins 17
This game has all the makings of a good old fashioned beatdown. New England is coming off an upset loss to the Jets in New York on a pretty bogus call in overtime. The Patriots are home this week and coming off a loss, a loss that really ticked them off, poor Miami this week. While the Patriots have been less than their usual stellar offensive machine this season, I predict the change is coming. Last week they finally got their star tight end Rob Gronkowski back and in just his first game back in almost a year he had a big impact with 8 catches for 114 yards. With another week under his belt I expect the connection of Brady to the “Gronk” to torch this struggling Miami team. Brady has had to start this year with a whole new cast of receivers, and it has held his numbers to being pretty mediocre. Well with Gronkowski back and possibly Amendola who is listed as questionable, along side this corp of young new receivers of the the Patriots, expect a huge day from this New England offense. This Dolphin defense is giving up over 372 yards per game ranking them 21st in the league, its exactly what the Patriots need to get this offense gelling again. On Miami’s side it has really fallen apart for them. Since starting the season 3-0 they have just tanked since losing 3 straight as well as going 0-3 against the spread. The Dolphins have not been able to protect their QB Ryan Tannehill and it has showed as all of the 11 turnovers this season have come from him. The running game for Miami was fairly decent last week, and with New England’s injuries up front on defense this may be a positive for the Dolphins. However if Brady starts clicking with that fast paced offense, which I believe he will, Miami will be forced to throw to keep up and that’s when it will fall apart for them. Patriots at home are very good, Patriots at home after a loss, expect a lopsided New England win and a coming out party for that Patriot offense.
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Dallas Cowboys/Detroit Lions take the over total 50.5 : Bet 4 units |
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Dallas Cowboys/Detroit Lions take the over total 50.5 : Bet 4 units |
Result: Detroit Lions 31 : Dallas Cowboys 30
Last week the Cowboys disappointed me in their win by only scoring 17 points. I didn’t figure their opponent the Eagles would be so feeble and turnover prone and only score 3 points so Dallas didn’t need to step on the gas. That will not be the case this week. It’s going to take far more than 17 points from either team to win this game. This game is featuring 2 of the top passing QB’s in the league in the Cowboys Tony Romo, and the Lions Matthew Stafford. Both of them are capable of lighting it up and they have consistently done so all year. Romo tossing to the likes of Dez Bryant, and rookie stand out Terrance Williams has thrown for 15 TD’s with only 5 INT’s. Stafford has been lethal throwing the ball lately with 8 TD’s and only 1 INT in the past 3 weeks. With weapons like wide receiver Calvin “Megatron” Johnson, and slick all purpose running back Reggie Bush, this Detroit is a handful for any defense to handle. Fortunately for our wager both of these teams have been as poor on defense as they are good on offense. The Lions rank 31st in the league in total defense, and aside from a strong showing last week with Philly, the Dallas defense has not been much better giving up huge totals every week. Both of these teams have a lot to play for as Dallas is in first in their division but at 4-3 even the lowly Giants at 1-6 are only a couple games behind them if the Cowboys lose today. And Detroit at 4-3 are just a ½ game out of first place in their division, but they cannot afford a second straight loss at home after that disappointing defeat last week against the Bengals. So I expect both teams to come out firing today and do what they do best to try and get the win, and that is score and score often. Detroit’s offensive line is a little banged up today so that is why I have this wager weighted a little lighter as Stafford is going to have to work a little harder than normal to get the ball out to his scoring machine. But I’m confident he will, as well as will Tony Romo. Watch for big numbers from the opposing receivers Johnson and Bryant today as the score rises well over the total.
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Atlanta Falcons +1 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 7 units |
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Atlanta Falcons +1 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 7 units |
Result: Arizona Cardinals 27 : Atlanta Falcons 13
Here is an interesting fact concerning this game. The Arizona Cardinals played the Seattle Seahawks last week in a losing effort. No team this year has won a game the following week after playing Seattle. Its funny how a team not playing in this game can effect the outcome, but I do believe the Seahawks play a factor here. Their incredibly bruising, brutal, style of play just wears teams out as evidenced by the 0-6 record of every team playing the week after going against them. Arizona should be no different, especially because they have problems of their own without the Seattle factor. Cardinal QB Carson Palmer has been a nightmare lately. As good as he can be, he can be far worse as he is just a turnover machine throwing multiple INT’s in 5 straight games now. It’s a momentum killer and is really all Atlanta QB Matt Ryan needs to get on the field more and run up the score. As bad as Palmer has been Ryan has been that good. With his big receiving weapons Julio Jones and Roddy White out, he has managed to still have one of his best seasons statistically. While Atlanta’s season has been a bit disappointing so far, they look to be getting healthy for this second half of the season and should make a big push towards the playoffs. Today see’s their star running back Steven Jackson return which should give them the much needed boost to the run game to compliment their already potent passing game. The Cardinals on the other hand look to be going the other way. Palmer while being an improvement over last years debacle at QB, is just not getting it done and they have done very little to help him with the offensive line giving up 20 sacks already this year. And with Arizona superstar wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald still far from 100% battling a hamstring injury, there is little hope at the moment for this Cardinal team. I can’t for the life of me figure how Arizona would be favored in this game. I think that’s significantly wrong and I believe we can capitalize on it. Watch for Atlanta to start their comeback into being a significant force in the league with a big and dominant win today in Arizona.
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