Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 6 (Monday)

This past Sunday was definitely a bit frustrating to watch as we saw our bets get hit by luck, both good and bad. The frustrating part of it is the bad luck hit our large wager while the good landed with our small. I enjoy every win and the Patriot win was a sweet one as it was a good game that played out for 3 quarters as expected. But the Saints rallying back looked as if we may take a loss with only a couple of minutes left. Enter Tom Brady. When it looks like the Patriots may have nothing left all he does is drive them down the field and throw an amazing touchdown to win the game with 5 seconds left. A great talent with some luck gave us a nice win. However, the Seattle Seahawks did almost all they could to give away a game they basically controlled all day. The biggest atrocity came when the Seattle kicker gets knocked out of the game so the usual holder goes in to try an easy field goal. Well when the snap to the new holder gets botched we see a comedy of errors that leads to an attempt of trying to advance the ball instead of just falling on it. So in this feeble attempt Seattle fumbles the ball and its picked up by Tennessee and run back the other way for a touchdown.....unbelievable. So instead of A Seahawk easy 3 points, it turns around as 7 for the Titans. A huge swing of 10 points that pretty much cost us an 8 unit bet as the Titans otherwise could mount very little against Seattle. Oh well, thats the breaks. It's all part of the season, mark my words, that will happen for us in our favor as well at some point in the season.We play the advantages, so we will see swings of good and bad, but when we add it all up in the end, odds are we will get more "lucky" breaks than not. Anyway, we have a nice play tonight to help wash down any disappointment from yesterday so let us march on.


Indianapolis Colts -1 over San Diego Chargers   Bet 5 units

At first glance when I looked at this game I thought this wouldn't have much value. San Diego QB Phillip Rivers has been very good this year and the Chargers have actually been a tough out. They have covered all but last week's games this season and have really played pretty consistent. But its not so much the Chargers being weak as it is the Colts being strong that lead me to finding some real value in this game. While the Chargers have some fine offensive power led by Rivers and a rejuvenated Antonio Gates and supported by the all purpose threat Danny Woodhead in the passing game, they offer little threat in the run game.Their top running threat Ryan Matthews has only 234 yards on the season and missed some time this week in practice due to a concussion. The Colts on the other hand are just as potent if not slightly more on the passing side of the ball with star young QB Andrew Luck lighting it up to Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, but with the addition of Trent Richardson at RB and with Luck actually being a running threat in scrambling and gaining first downs, this Colts team has a viable and dangerous running game. Something else jumped out at me while looking at this game, the inability of the Charger defense to produce turnovers. Not only is the Charger defense ranked 32nd (last) in yards given up per play, they rank 27th in passing yards given up, and have only managed 2 takeaways. Those kind of numbers look to be a bad matc hup for a big time passer like Luck and his crew. Conversely the Colts while showing weakness on defense against the run, that should be less of a factor against a weak running team like the Chargers, have showed a fine ability in getting turnovers with 10 takeaways so far this season. The Chargers are an improved team with a real good QB that can play a lot of teams close. The Colts are all that plus a whole lot more. Just having to win this game by less than a field goal gives a real nice edge to a fast rising Colts team.