Well Sunday's games went pretty good. We took 2 out of 3 for a 3.3 unit profit. I certainly expected more from the Falcons yesterday but Matt Ryan had an unusually bad day with 3 Int's that sealed us off from getting a huge clean sweep yesterday. That is fine, a profitable day is a win no matter the size. However, tonight's game is a big one and should catapult us into a nice positive position. Its a big spread to cover, but this one should get out of control in our favor very quickly. So for week 8 we are currently up a nice 7.3 units. Tonight's game should really give us the big win we've been looking for.
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Sunday's results : | +4.0 units | |
| 10% house vig on losses : | +3.3 units | |
| Total to date : | -2.2 units |
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Seattle Seahawks -11.5 over St. Louis Rams : Bet 8 units | Click Here |
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Seattle Seahawks -11.5 over St. Louis Rams : Bet 8 units | Click Here |
Result: Seattle Seahawks 14 : St. Louis Rams 9
I have said it many times before in the past, it is very difficult to take double digit point spreads for the favorite to cover in the NFL. I have said it, yet I have done it with the Seahawks in the past couple of seasons and they have yet to let me down. This would be my first time going with them with this large of spread with them being on the road, but in this game it's not going to matter much. All that does is lessen the weight of our wager from max bet to 8 units. My confidence level in this game however is maxed out. This is a horrendus match up for the Rams. With losing the only somewhat bright spot of their team in QB Sam Bradford to a torn ACL last week, St. Louis looks to be pretty much weaponless going against a ferocious opponent in the Seasttle Seahawks. The Rams will be starting back up QB Kellen Clemens who hasn't started a game since 2011. Even with Bradford it would have been a daunting task to face this brutal Seahawk defense, but with Clemens who has never proven to be a very accurate passer completing just 51.8 % of his passes. If he's not perfect with delivering the ball in this game its going to be a nightmare for the Rams with that star studded Seattle defensive secondary led by cornerback Richard Sherman. The St Louis offense comes into this game ranked 30th in the league in yards per game, only ahead of the winless Buccaneers and Jaguars. With a back up QB at the helm tonight, I cannot expect them to be any better and do expect far worse. The Rams defense leaves something to be desired as well. They are allowing over 126 yards per game rushing this year which will spell huge trouble with a beast like Seattle's Marshawn Lynch running at them as well as a supremely mobile running QB in Russell Wilson. The Rams are also giving up the second most yards per pass play in the league at 7.97. The well balanced offensive attack of the Seahawks should just chew this defense up. I cannot see how the Rams with no running game and a back up QB will be able to get anything going against a Seattle defense that leads the league in least yards given up per play. The Rams just do not have an edge in any area of match ups with this Seahawk team, except maybe that St Louis is the home team. That will not matter tonight as for the life of me I can't see how the Rams even score a point. This is going to get ugly quick on both sides of the ball for St Louis, and that's at least why for tonight, laying double digits in the point spread is a great bet.
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