Well we find ourselves in a little bit of a hole as we start week 7 of this NFL season. Not to worry, after week 6 of last year we found ourselves in a similar situation down almost 20 units and came back to finish with a fine 25 unit profit on the season. I expect no different this season....actually I do expect something a bit different, bigger year end profits! It starts with our first game of the week tonight. We should get a nice jump start back into making money with a strong pick tonight.
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Monday's results : | -5.0 units | |
| 10% house vig on losses : | -0.5 units | |
| Total to date : | -15.1 units |
Book | Line | Sign-up |
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Seattle Seahawks -5.5 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 4 units |
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Seattle Seahawks -5.5 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 4 units |
Result: Seattle Seahawks 34 - Arizona Cardinals 22
Ok lets get something straight here before everyone panic about the Seahawks not covering their last 2 games, it's not going to happen 3 in a row. Not because it can't, but because it won't. The Seahawks are still the dominant NFC powerhouse and only a couple of blocked field goals in the last 2 games is the difference in them being a perfect money team this year. Despite the improvement to the Arizona Cardinals this year over last season, this team is still a bad match up against this nightmare of a defense for any NFL team. Cardinal QB Carson Palmer while adding quite a bit to the team dynamic this year over last year's Cardinals that had no real QB, has been prone to the interception throwing multiple in 4 straight games. That is absolute suicide against this Seattle defense with top cornerbacks like Sherman and Browner patrolling the defensive secondary. On top of this, Cardinal superstar wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald has been dealing with a hamstring issue which didn't show much of a problem last week, but may get exposed getting bumped by these big physical corners of Seattle. Arizona's defense has been good against the run this year with teams only averaging 3.5 yards per rush, but Seattle will test that with "The Beast" Marshawn Lynch and the running ability of QB Russell Wilson. Even if Seattle is slowed in the run game, Russell Wilson has the weapons and the arm to stretch the field with a passing attack as well. There is no doubt in my mind this Seahawk defense will be a factor in the scoring tonight whether it be intercepting Palmer, or just stuffing the Cardinal offense to create great field position for the Seattle offense. The past couple of weeks have got me weary of Seattle's special teams as they have had huge breakdowns in the field goal unit leading to monster point swings, and while I chalk that up mostly to freak bad luck it is a factor in the weight of my bet here. I need to see them get it together again and not commit costly turnovers. Also Seattle plays slightly weaker on the road than at home. All that being said last year's match up between these 2 teams saw an embarrassing 58-0 Seahawk trouncing of the Cardinals. I don't expect that bad of a beatdown again, but I do expect Seattle busting out tonight to prove they are not the mistake prone team of the last 2 weeks. I expect a ferocious Seattle defensive showing with a very proficient offense. If that happens, it doesn't matter who they're playing....just ask the 49ers.
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