Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Divisional Playoff Round (Sunday)

Saturday's games saw us go 1-1 but unfortunately had us losing the more heavily weighted wager. The Seahawks completely dominated the Saints for a 16-0 lead and then just sat on it doing nothing up until the final minutes of the 4th quarter which led to us falling short on our bet by 1/2 a point. Tough to swallow but that's how it goes. The second game went exactly as predicted which was a nice lift after the Seattle disappointment. There was no way the Colts were going to pull any miracle against the Patriots like they did the previous weeks against the Chiefs. Unlike the Seahawks, once you let the Patriots get an edge on you, they just bury you. Colt's QB Andrew Luck made too many mistakes against a team that knows how to capitalize on them. It was a good win for the Patriots and us as well. Today is basically the season for us. We are laying big time wagers today on what I think are fantastic opportunities. A sweep of these games today are absolutely needed to get us in striking distance of a positive result for the season. After today we only have 3 games left to get there....I like our chances. But it starts today as I have supreme confidence in these plays that bring us right back.

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Saturday's results :		+4.0 units won : -8.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-4.8 units
Total to date :		-32.2 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	San Francisco 49ers pk over Carolina Panthers: Bet 10 units	Click Here
	San Francisco 49ers pk over Carolina Panthers: Bet 10 units	Click Here

Result:

These 2 teams met up earlier this year with Carolina edging the Niners 10-9 in a real defensive battle. In that game Carolina established they really are a defensive force to be reckoned with and they really made 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick look lost. He had the worst game of his career throwing for only 91 yards, no touchdowns and was sacked 6 times and threw an interception. The 49ers also played great defense and shut down Carolina as well only allowing them to score 10 points on the day. Based on just that I can see why they have this game as an even handicap, but there is much more to this game. San Francisco marches into Carolina a far different team then what they were in that week 10 loss. First off Kaepernick lost his star receiver TE Vernon Davis for the whole second half when he went out with a concussion. Also Kaepernick's go to receiver of a year ago Michael Crabtree was out for that game. Kaepernick will have both of them available and healthy to him today and should give him a much greater chance to carve up Carolina's zone defense that is used to keep him in the pocket. Carolina may not like the results of Kaepernick having to use that laser arm today. If they adjust to it, watch for huge gains on the ground as well. As well as the 49ers played defense in the first meeting with the Panthers, it was with very limited play of their star outside LB Aldon Smith as it was just his first game back from an indefinite leave of absence. Carolina will be hampered offensively today as their star WR Steve Smith is really struggling with an injured knee. Carolina QB Cam Newton is as dangerous running threat as there is in the NFL, but with this strong 49er defense at full strength, I expect them to contain him in the pocket and force him to beat them with his arm. This should prove problematic as Newton as great as he's played is not a very accurate passer, and without a healthy Steve Smith to target look for Carolina's offense to make some mistakes. The 49ers come into this game a far better team than they were earlier in the season. I think they prove that with a big win in Carolina today that may not be the same defensive battle of week 10.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	San Diego Chargers +8 over Denver Broncos: Bet 8 units	Click Here
	San Diego Chargers +8 over Denver Broncos : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result:

The Denver Broncos are an absolute offensive juggernaut led by their QB Peyton Manning's record setting year. There has been only one team that has been able to slow them down this year and it's the one match up Denver should not want to see in trying to make a super bowl run....it's these San Diego Chargers. This will be the 3rd time these teams meet this year and they go into it an even 1-1. More telling about this match up is that Denver has not only been unable to separate themselves from the Chargers on the scoreboard, San Diego held the Broncos to their lowest scoring total of the year. San Diego has the look right now of last year's champs the Baltimore Ravens that got hot at the end of the season and rode a tide of momentum through the playoffs to win it all. I'm not predicting this will happen with this Chargers team, but they have won 5 games in a row basically needing every single one to squeak into the playoffs and then dominate a very good Bengals team last week in the 1st round of the playoffs. They have played excellent under pressure and I don't see that changing today against a very suspect Denver defense. There are 2 key variables to this game that I feel work in San Diego's favor, one obvious, another not so much. Chargers coach Mike McCoy was the offensive coordinator over in Denver with Peyton Manning. If anyone knows how that Broncos offensive machine ticks it's him and it has showed as the Chargers with a less than stellar defense has held Manning an CO. in check both games with 28 and 20 points respectively. I think another key thing to watch for in this game will be the officiating. While I wouldn't base a real heavy weight of regard on it, it still should be recognized that the crew officiating this game are known for keeping the yellow flags in the pocket and letting the teams play, especially where the receivers and defensive backs are concerned. This is the same crew that had Tom Brady screaming in fits at them when they wouldn't call pass interference in the Patriot loss to Carolina this year. This may come into play as Denver is loaded with receivers for Manning to hit, if the Charger secondary is allowed to get physical with them it could slow down the Bronco offensive game. The Broncos have not been able to dominate the Chargers yet this season and I don't see it happening today either. This game may come down to the wire. Also to be noted, San Diego has historically thrived playing in Denver with an 8-1-2 record against the spread there in their past 11 games. I expect a very competitive game today.