Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks Week 4 (Sunday)

Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 4 (Sunday)

A bit of a bounce back Monday and Thursday has put last Sunday's 0-3 day in our rear view mirror. This Sunday is a big day as it see's us wagering more than we have on any other day so far this season. Well the reason is simple. Besides the fact I like the value in each game I picked, we are now in the 4th week of the season and its becoming a bit more clear what the teams really are. While some are still a bit uncertain, some are crystal clear. It won't take long now before all the teams basic trends will be established, but for now we have enough for a potentially huge week for us. I like our chances to really build up some bankroll today, so lets get it on!

Seattle Seahawks -1 over Houston Texans  bet 5 units

It’s a curious situation When a Seattle team that is undefeated and has been in the money all 3 games this season, is only giving 1 point to a team in the Texans who have underperformed and have finished outside the money all 3 games so far. The big knock that I have heard is that while Seattle is a beast at home, they are far less intimidating on the road. On the surface, yes that may be true, but recent history tells a little different story. Seahawks were 8-0 at home last year and have started this season 2-0 at Century Link Field. They were only 3-5 on the road last season, but that is a bit deceiving. Seattle finished last regular season with a 5 game winning streak and 2 of those wins were on the road. One against a tough Bears team the other a 50 point scoring outburst in Buffalo against the Bills. This year the trend continued with a win and cover in Carolina in a tough game but one that realized the Panthers are pretty good more so than the Seahawks have trouble.  Seahawks hit stride last year in mid season and haven’t looked back. In their last 8 regular season games they are undefeated and 3-0 on the road. Houston this year however is a team with loads of potential that should be alright as the season goes on but today is a bad day for that. With their big time wide receiver Andre Johnson riddled with injury this year,  with a failure to commit more to a solid running game, Texan QB Matt Schaub has found himself trying to force the ball down field in tough situations. While he has performed well, that is a recipe for disaster today as Seattle’s big corners take away the downfield passing, and the Seahawk pass rush just force Schaub into poor decisions. On Seattle’s side its simple, a great run game and great defense is the key to traveling well. Expect big time doses of Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch, and high pressure and big hits from the Seattle defense. With only giving up -1 today, I like the Seahawks  just basically needing a small win to cover.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 over New York Giants  bet 4 units

Who would’ve thought coming into this game the Chiefs would be the undefeated team and the Giants would be winless. Kansas City with 3 wins have already surpassed their win total of 2 from last season, and the Giants have looked of late like they would be lucky to get 2 wins this season. I have heard much this week about how it’s impossible for this Giants team to start off 0-4, they really need a win this week so they should get it. Really….why? What have they shown to warrant such confidence. Just because a team wants and needs a win doesn’t mean a thing to me if they have no recent history of getting it done. The Giants have talent but it’s not translating to any type of success on the field. They have been bad in every aspect of the game this year. They have had no running game, with running back David Wilson being prone to fumbling and Giants head coach Tom Coughlin  basically taking the ball out of his hands. The passing game has been awful. Even with the talented Eli Manning at QB he has been getting crushed and last week was sacked 6 times in practically the 1^st quarter of the game. Not being able to protect Manning has turned this Giant offense into a mistake prone turnover happy mess. And with Kansas City having one of the top rated pass rush defenses in the league, this is going to get ugly. Especially with the Giant offensive line missing its starters in David Bass and Chris Snee, and with David Diehl  hurt and doubtful, expect very little resistance in getting to the Giant QB today. The Giant defense has been poor to say the least as well. Justin Tuck looks to be a shell of himself so far this season, and Jason Pierre Paul is battling injuries and while still playing, has been highly ineffective. Injuries to the New York devensive secondary along with no pass rush has allowed offenses to light up the Giants this year. And while Chiefs QB Alex Smith is called a game manager more than a star, he has yet to throw an interception. As a matter of fact the whole Kansas City team has yet to commit a turnover. With Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles, and big time wide receiver Dwayne Bowe on offense with the highly efficient Smith at QB, expect the Chiefs to have a well balanced attack that scores just as effectively as every team has against this Giants defense. Throw on top of this playing this game in Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium, one of the toughest places to play on the road outside of Seattle, and the Giants start their season 0-4. 

Denver Broncos -10.5 over Philadelphia eagles   bet 4 units

As a rule its usually a bad idea to take any NFL team that’s giving up over 10 points in a game. That is a good rule, but there are exceptions, and this game falls right into that category. As anyone can see Denver has been absolutely unstoppable on offense this year. Well wait until this fast paced Chip Kelly style offense starts giving the ball over to this super potent Peyton Manning led Broncos offense an inordinate amount of times. The problem with the Eagles super fast paced offense has been simple, it just hasn’t worked outside of their first win against Washington. And with the Redskins now 0-3 record that Philly win looks even less impressive. With this Eagle offense trying to operate so quickly, if they aren’t effective, it just means they are giving the ball back to the opposition far faster and allowing their opponents to control the ball and in essence the game. That spells disaster if that opponent just happens to be Peyton Manning and crew. With 12 touchdowns and no interceptions,  Manning is unbelievably on his way to having his best season ever.  With weapons all over the field on offense the Broncos are going to impose their will on an Eagle defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in allowing 28.7 points per game. Just wait until that Philly D is constantly on the field, by the 3^rd quarter they will be exhausted and this game is going to get ugly. The Eagles run game has been a bright spot led by running back “Shady” McCoy who leads the NFL with 395 yards rushing. The problem with this is the Denver defense has been excellent against the run giving up a paltry 43.3 yards per game. Something’s got to give there, and with the inevitable fact that the Broncos will be scoring often, the Eagles will have to abandon the run and try to win a shootout. They can’t and they won’t. I see the Broncos rolling through this one, and possibly some big changes coming on the Eagles side with some personnel moves on the offense as well as the defense.  

  

Oakland Raiders/Washington Redskins take the over total 44  bet 5 units

Both of these teams have had their struggles this year. However the Raiders thought to be one of the weakest teams in the league going into this season have showed they are a little better than expected. The Redskins on the other hand many picked to win their division have been awful and RGIII has struggled mightily coming back from his knee injury as the Redskins have opened up the season 0-3. While I’m not calling for a winner here, I will say this game has a chance for either team as they both will have the ability to move the ball and score. The Washington defense has been downright horrible and ineffective in every aspect. The secondary was thought to be a weak point going into this season, and it has, but to add to this they have been even worse against the run, ranking worst in the league. Playing against Oakland’s star running back  Darren McFadden that is bad news for Washington. And even though Raiders starting QB Terrelle Pryor looks to be out with a concussion, back up QB Matt Flynn is a very capable replacement with the potential of some big play making ability of his own. While the Raiders have been better than anticipated they are still not a powerhouse that will be manhandling these Washington Redskins. If any team this year is going to allow RGIII to get back on track this year it will be this week against Oakland. And with Alfred Morris in the backfield running for the Redskins, you can expect that ball to be moving up and down the field. I really see both teams being able to score with not a whole lot of resistance. And with RGIII showing improvement week to week, if he gets comfortable today against a team that is very beatable, it just may be his coming out party of the season.