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Saturday, September 21, 2013

Aramon' s 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 3 (Sunday)





Dallas Cowboys/St. Louis Rams  Take the over total 47   Bet 3 units

*If the total increases to 49 do not wager….. totals 48 to 49 wager 2 units

This looks like it’s going to be a fun one. These two teams are both coming off road losses looking to bounce back, and both are playing wide open football.  The Cowboys have just not run the ball this season so far.  In the 4th quarter last week of a very tight game they didn’t even run the ball once. Tony Romo has thrown 91 passes in 2 games and regardless of what Dallas head coach Jason Garrett says about committing to the run more this week, they won’t because they can’t. After a huge breakout game last week, expect Romo to consistently hook up with Cowboy wide receiver Dez Bryant to torch this Rams  defensive secondary just like Arizona’s Carson Palmer did as well as Atlanta’s Matt Ryan.  On the other side of the ball the Rams Sam Bradford is really coming into his own. He has already thrown  for 651 yards and 5 touchdowns this year in just 2 games. The St Louis running game is slowed with starting running back Steven Jackson hurt, so expect big throws often downfield against a Dallas defense that ranks just 24th against the pass. Rams wideout Chris Givens is a legitimate deep threat, along with his slot counter part Tavon Austin so look for big games from both. Rams have scored no less than 24 points in both games this season and that is to be expected again. Dallas of course will be firing away too as evidenced by if this game hits the over it will the 20th time in the last 27 Dallas home games. This game soars over the total with ease.


Houston Texans -1 over Baltimore Ravens   Bet 2 units

*If the line reaches -2 to -2.5 bet 1 unit. -3 or more do not wager

Not a lot of confidence has been built up for the Texans even with their 2-0 start. With a week 1 4th quarter come from behind win against the Chargers, and needing to go to overtime to out duel the Titans last week, many are thinking this is the week the luck runs out. Well, I think this is the week the Texans show up for real. The Chargers showed last week that they aren’t as bad as thought to be and the Tennessee Titans have been pretty good this year as well. So this 2-0 start by the Texans is looking more valid at the moment. Any team that has real stars on both sides of the ball like the Texans do is going to not only compete with any team in the league, they will beat most of them.  Even though monster wide receiver Andre Johnson is coming off a concussion, I still see him being a factor especially with the breaking out of the sensational rookie wideout  Deandre Hopkins to take some pressure off of Johnson.  Texan QB Matt Schaub is having a phenomenal year with 644 yards passing and 6 touchdowns, not only because of the potent receiving corp, but also due to his balanced running attack. Arian Foster has been sharing time with fellow running back Ben Tate and it has shown so far to really be a dangerous tandem for opposing defenses. Speaking of defense, what more needs to be said other than last year’s defensive player of the year J.J. Watt, the most disruptive force in any defense. Along with linebacker Brian Cushing, look for the pressure on Ravens QB Joe Flacco to be a game changer. Turnovers in this game may be key, and the Texans defense especially with the possible return of Ed Reed in their secondary should force Baltimore into some key mistakes. Ravens star running back has been hobbled with a hip injury and even if he plays should be limited. His running is key to this Baltimore offense, but his pass catching out of the backfield is equally important and cannot be duplicated by his replacement Bernard Pierce should Rice be limited or out. The Superbowl defending champs got embarrassed in week 1 in Denver, but snapped back last week in beating the Browns. I’m not impressed. This won’t be a beat down of the Ravens like in week 1, but I expect a very good Houston Texan team to handle their business and move on to an impressive 3-0.


New York Giants -1 over Carolina Panthers   Bet 4 units

*If this line moves to -3 bet 2 units…..-3.5 to 4 bet 1 units....-4.5 or more do not bet

This game see’s two surprisingly 0-2 teams battling it out for their first win of the year. This game’s point spread suggest it should be a hard fought close contest, well it may be hard fought, but It shouldn’t be that close. The Giants may be the best 0-2 team in the league, but to be fair, turning the ball over 10 times in 2 games will get you beat and that’s exactly what has been the Giants problem.  But actually, the Giants have played some tough teams in division rival Dallas, and last week with the Broncos in what has been dubbed the Manning Bowl. And aside from last weeks 4th quarter where Giants turnovers allowed Denver to pull away in the scoring, the Giants have been very competitive. With a strict disciplinarian coach in New York’s Tom Coughlin I expect a far cleaner and better game played this week by the Giants. If that be the case, this will be a tough day for the Carolina Panthers.  Carolina has been playing poorly on both sides of the ball and has been outgained by 122.5 yards per game so far which is worst in the NFL. The Panthers also match up very poorly with their defensive secondary in shambles due to multiple injuries to almost all their starters. The Giants top notch receiving corp of Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks figure to have a huge day. And look for Giant QB to get his stats even more inflated than the over 800 yards he has already thrown. With this weak defensive backfield Eli should be able to avoid the troublesome interceptions that have plagued him recently.  Last season in week 3 as well The Giants handled Carolina easily beating them 36-7 and intercepting Cam Newton 3 times and only allowing him to rush for 12 yards. The Giants did that last year with besides Eli Manning, most of their offense out with injury. I do think Carolina has the potential to right their ship down the road this season, but this week is not their week and they matchup very badly with a very healthy Giants squad. I look for a similar result as last year in this game.  

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