Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 4 (Thursday)

Week 3 proved to be a challenging week for us. We had 3 losses on Sunday, but thankfully they were sandwiched in between a Thursday and Monday night win. The total on the week showed us with a -3.9 unit deficit, which really given the recommended starting bankroll of 100 units is nothing at all to worry about. The early weeks of the NFL season are always a tough time for handicapping as the teams are not quite established as who they are yet, and its in these first few weeks that bankrolls can be decimated if one is not careful. We are in fine shape as we move into this 4th week of the season. Any who have followed me over from thepogg.com know we have been quite conservative up to this point and have kept the wagering bankroll in tact and ready for the upcoming weeks. This week may see us get slightly more aggressive with the wagering amounts as we now have a few weeks of data under our belt. However there is still a few big inconsistencies in some teams, so in certain cases there will be caution taken when weighing their value. This Thursday night game has that certain feel of caution about it to many handicappers and bettors. I would agree to a certain extent if picking a winner with the line, but at the same time I see real value in the over in this game so we will jump on it and hopefully start the new week off with some nice profit.

San Francisco 49ers/St Louis Rams take the over total 42   Bet 4 units

 I know its still early in the season, but there is a lot at stake for both teams here. Whichever team loses tonight will fall 2.5 games behind the division leading Seattle Seahawks and believe me, its not going to be easy to gain ground on Seattle this year once you fall behind. The total on this game has become quite low for a 49ers team that leading into this season has really been a high scoring machine. Recent games have seen that change dramatically in 2 straight losses where they have been outscored 56-10. A 49er defense that had only averaged giving up 17 points a game the previous year has now fallen to giving up 28. I don't look for that too change too much tonight. The San Francisco defense is weakened by the losses of Aldon Smith their top pass rusher to an alcohol rehab stint, and injuries to their other top defensive players linebacker Patrick Willis and cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha..  This should allow Rams QB Sam Bradford ample time to hit his prime targets, Wide receiver Chris Givens and tight end Jared Cook. Bradford has already tossed 6 td's in the first 3 games of the season and with the Rams propensity for playing it close with the 49ers even when they are at full strength (1-0-1 straight up and 2-0 against the spread last year), I expect a big night from the Rams QB.

Now on the offensive side of the ball is where the surprise is for this usually dynamic 49er team. They looked great in their first game against the Green Bay Packers, but have dropped off into a 2 game losing streak since. I do not expect a Jim Harbaugh coached 49ers team to lose 3 in a row, and really expect a fired up and spirited effort on offense tonight. San Fran QB Colin Kaepernick has been stymied of late, but this match up against a Rams defense that has struggled against the pass bodes well for him to lead his offense to big numbers. Actually its Kaepernick's feet that should open up his passing game tonight. He has run with great success against these Rams as evidenced by his 150 yards rushing on only 17 attempts against them in their meeting last season. This should soften up an already weak St. Louis pass defense to allow 49er wide receiver Anquan Boldin to due his damage. Look for 49er running back Frank Gore to have an exceptional night as well catching passes out of the backfield as well as running the ball. Gore complained last week about his sparse use in the 2nd half of last weeks game and he was right. This game should see heavy doses of him, and that will bode well for the scoring challenged offense of late.

So I predict a closely contested game keeping with the norm that these two teams have played recently. But I do suggest that the 49ers defensive struggles continue enough to allow the pass happy Rams to score especially in the 2nd half if they fall behind which has been customary this season. I also think this Rams defense, prone to giving it up to the pass is just what the doctor ordered to get this San Francisco offense well again. If I had to pick a side I would lean to the Niners, but I wouldn't put money on it. Rams play all their division rivals tight and this should be no different with both teams running up the score.