Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 3 (Monday)

As one can clearly see there was definitely a hiccup for us this past Sunday with the picks. While going 0-3 is never a pleasant experience for any bettor, there are weeks that the NFL's parody will rear it's ugly head. That is why I always suggest you keep at least a 100 unit bankroll for your sports betting. There will be swings and strange things may happen, such as the Carolina Panthers getting their first shutout of a team in 77 games! Being able to ride out the inevitable swings is paramount in getting to the finish line of a long NFL season with a nice profit. I have little doubt we will produce nice profits this year, we just stay the course as always, and for every tough weekend, we make sure there are more than a few great ones. Which leads me right into tonight's pick. Its a good one. I believe we are finishing off week 3 with our most solid pick of the week, and a little bounce back on our bankroll.

Oakland Raiders/Denver Broncos  Take the over total 48.5    Bet 4 units

Any totals offered at 49.5 to 50, reduce bet to 3 units. Totals over 51 do not bet

I have the units weighed for the wager on this game at 4 units. Actually if this game was being played in a couple of more weeks it may be closer to a max 10 unit bet. Its still a little early in the season and a little more needs to be seen of the teams for more accurate evaluation before we jump up like that, but at this early stage of the year, its still clear the Denver Broncos are an offensive juggernaut. The Broncos have scored 90 points on their own in their first 2 games. Peyton Manning seems to be fully recovered from his neck surgeries from 2 years ago as he is absolutely carving up defenses throwing 9 touchdowns with no interceptions. Whats scary for opposing defense now is, besides having 3 top receivers to throw to in Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Eric Decker, Manning now has a viable rushing threat in Knowshon Moreno. To be fair there has been concern about the season ending injury to Broncos left tackle Ryan Clady and could it pose protection problems for Peyton Manning. I believe it to be of little concern due to the fact that Peyton is a great QB under pressure and can get the ball out quick to his talented receiving corp.

What actually makes this game very much an over game of course has a lot to do with Denver's offense, but believe it or not the Raiders really bring something to the table here as well. While I don't expect miracles from this Raider team, they have proved a bit better than expected, and QB Terrelle Pryor has given Oakland a versatile running game capable of moving the chains themselves. Actually led by Pryor and running back Darren McFadden the Raiders  have more rush yards per game and per carry than any other team in the league besides the Philadelphia Eagles, but Philly has played 1 more game then Oakland at this point. Though its been more than a decade since the Oakland Raiders have really bee competitive, they seem to get up for these meetings in Denver going 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 meetings. I am not saying that the Raiders will beat or even cover the big 14.5 point spread against Denver, I just believe they will play hard and contribute to the total.Of course I do believe the main factor in tonight's scoring will be Denver's ability to put points on the board, and with 9 out the last 12 games going over for them, I believe its a good bet tonight the trend continues.