Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks Week 4 (Monday)

Brief recap of Sunday's Results

Sunday's game this week really saw some great results as we went 3-1 and pulled in a nice +7.5 profit win. Since our tough day last Sunday we have regained our momentum and have been on a 5-1 roll since. As the weeks march on I believe so will our momentum as the teams have now really begun to play as who they are. A quick break down of Sunday's game shows win or lose what we are seeing from the teams picked, is basically as predicted.

Our first pick saw us win a close one with Seattle -1 over the Texans. I predicted it would be close, I liked the value in just needing the Seahawks to pull out a close win, which is exactly what the did. I predicted that the Seattle defense, especially that of the corners, would be the difference in the game causing mistakes for Texan QB Matt Schaub. Well as we saw his int in the 4th quarter to cornerback Richard Sherman led to the comeback and ultimate win for Seattle. They pretty much played it as if they had read my prediction.

Our next pick saw us win with Chiefs -4 beating up on the Giants 31-7. The Giants actually played tough in this game for a couple of quarters, but as predicted New York's woes have been, and will be caused by turnovers and mistakes. That and the lack of defense caused yet another miserable mistake prone loss to drop the Giants to 0-4. Yes, I said in my prediction, just because they needed a win didn't mean they were getting one. This team is bad and its time the public accepts that.

Our 3rd pick saw us win with taking the Broncos -10.5 over the Eagles. At 52 -20 I'd say we had a fairly safe bet here.More importantly, it played out exactly as expected. Philly played competitive off the bat with a good running game led by McCoy, but as the game wore on, by the 3rd quarter the Eagles were exhausted and couldn't match the firepower. Broncos just stepped on the gas at that point and cruised. The garbage touchdown Denver gave up at the end of the game betrays how lopsided this game become even with a 32 point win. Also as predicted with the Eagles being totally blown out and embarrassed, Philly changed personnel by pulling out Michael Vick and inserting backup QB Nick Foles to finish up the game. My prediction may have well been the script for the game.

Our 4th pick of the day saw us lose our over 44 bet in the Redskin/Raider game. Obviously this didn't go exactly as I had planned but my analysis of what would happen wasn't too bad. Both teams came in 0-3, and I predicted a fairly even contest where both teams would be able to score. Well I was a bit off on how well the Raiders would move the ball, but an injury to their RB Darren McFadden may have had something to do with that. I also predicted that this would be a good spot for RGIII and the Redkins to turn it around, and they did. Much of what I expected here did happen, but not enough for us to win the bet. That comes with the territory, win some lose some, but in the end win enough to make money. And that's just what we did.  

Now for today's Monday Night game:

Miami Dolphins +7 over New Orleans Saints  Bet 2 units

It's been a while since I would ever pick against the Saints at home, and with them being 3-0 and playing well on both sides of the ball it seems odd to do it now. But the caveat to this is, the Miami Dolphins are a surprising 3-0 as well, and playing very good too. Giving Miami 7 points seems more like the public betting the line up more than the actual worth of it. Considering Atlanta as a common opponent to both the Dolphins and Saints this year had both spreads at 3 points. It would seem that they were apparently fairly evenly matched. Obviously with both of these teams being undefeated they both won those games against Atlanta. Now that being said I would agree that the Saints do have an edge in this game. Two major factors being, Saints QB Drew Brees, and home field. To me that accounts for far less than a TD edge. Dolphin QB Ryan Tannehill may be the most overlooked and underrated quarterback at the moment, and that works great for us. His solid rookie year went largely unnoticed last season due to the wildly popular RGIII, Andrew Luck, and the success of Russell Wilson of Seattle. Tannehill has improved upon that in his second year and has also added a huge deep threat in Mike Wallace at wideout. Neither team runs the ball particularly well, so whoever can get something going there might gain an edge. The Saints are tough to beat at home, I would rarely pick straight up against them, but this Dolphin team has shown they can beat tough teams in the Colts and the Falcons this year, and have the grit to make comebacks. I could see a Saints win, but I do not see a blow out, I think Miami keeps this one close enough for the 7 to cover. Who knows maybe they even shock the Saints at home.