Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 15 (Sunday)

Well as hot as we were going into last week, we have been just as cold since then. It happens, and nothing to get too concerned about. As long as there are games left to play, we are in place to make a profit. And this week looks fantastic! I believe I have found some special games this week that will bounce us back to a nice healthy profit margin. Last week, and the start of this week have not been very kind to us, but Sunday's games looks to be served up to us on a silver platter, they're that good. Here's to a positive and prosperous day!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

Thursday's results :		0.0 units won : -10.0 units lost
Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses :		-11.0 units
Total to date :		-3.8 units

Book	Line	Sign-up
	New Orleans Saints -5.5 over St. Louis Rams : Bet 8 units	Click Here
	New Orleans Saints -5.5 over St. Louis Rams : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result:

It’s funny, I have touted most of this season how this great Saints team is not the same team on the road, and at 1-5 against the spread as a visitor, they have proved me right. But that dynamic changes this week for the Saints playing on the road against the Rams. It begins with the fact that they will be playing at St. Louis in a dome in almost the exact same conditions that New Orleans has at their own home. This is nothing like the other games the Saints have had to endure coming into other stadiums and dealing with the different elements that have had a profound effect on what is usually their superior team unable to perform as well. This week all though it is not a neutral field as there still will be a Rams crowd there cheering for their team, there is virtually no home field advantage for the first time going against the Saints. The St. Louis crowd is not known for their loud raucous noise levels or for inhibiting a visiting teams ability to call plays, so we are left with the very basic, which team is better? The answer is of course the New Orleans Saints. Coming off a terrific win against a phenomenal Carolina Panther team last week, the Saints proved that when able to play in their element they are at least in the top 3 of best teams in the league. Led by future hall of famer QB Drew Brees, the Saints are absolutely an unstoppable offense in the control environment of a domed stadium. The Rams on the other hand are a tick below mediocre being led by a perennial back up QB in Kellen Clemens in an offense that has not been able to score more than 13 points the last couple of weeks. This is the ideal spot for the Saints to finally blow open a road game and really roll. They are the far superior team, and finally, for once on the road there is very little standing in the way of them proving it.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Cleveland Browns +1 over Chicago Bears: Bet 6 units	Click Here
	Cleveland Browns +1 over Chicago Bears: Bet 6 units	Click Here

Result:

After the Bears looked like world beaters last week against the Cowboys one may ask why in the world would I take the lowly Browns to cover against them? Well picking winners is about matchups and the Bears just don’t look to stack up that well against a tough Brown defense playing at home. The Bears impressive showing last week had a lot to do with a Dallas defense ranked 31st in the league in giving up 6.2 yards per play, as much as anything Chicago brought to the table. I will say this, if the Bears get any kind of production this week close to what they did last week, they will have sure earned it. This Cleveland defensive squad has registered 37 sacks this season and has one of the best cornerbacks in the league in Joe Haden. What I feel makes this increasingly harder for Chicago is their decision to go with Jay Cutler at QB this week. Although he is normally the starter, when he went down with an injury a few weeks back Josh McCown stepped in and played off the charts amazing. Now coming into Cleveland against a fairly stout defense the Bears are asking Cutler to shake the rust off under fire. I think this is a big mistake. Even with Cutler being a talented QB this situation could break up the continuity that has formed recently in this Bear offense of late that has made them so potent. Meanwhile Cleveland has played much better and more mistake free on offense with Jason Campbell under center, and with wideout Josh Gordan putting up historical type numbers the last 4 games, 36 catches 774 yards and 5 TD’s, this very weak Chicago defense could have their hands more full than expected. I’m sure the public will be all over the Bears this week after that dominant showing against Dallas, but that’s not the real Bears. The real Bears are money suckers for the public with a 3-8-1 against the spread this season, while the Browns are a tough out and have covered their last 4 games as underdogs. Taking the better defense, at home, getting points, I like this one all day long.

Book	Line	Sign-up
	Kansas City Chiefs -5 over Oakland Raiders : Bet 8 units	Click Here
	Kansas City Chiefs -5 over Oakland Raiders : Bet 8 units	Click Here

Result:

The Chiefs come into this game with a record of 10-3 and I still don’t think they are garnering the respect they truly deserve this season. After going 9-0 to start their season they hit a 3 game skid that had most naysayers touting how they were right about this Kansas City team that was overrated. Well that losing streak has much less value weighted to it based upon the fact that 2 of those losses came against the number one ranked team in the AFC Denver Broncos. Those were hard fought well played games as well. Oakland on the other hand has just not been a very good team this year. They have been weak running the ball, and are being led now by a QB Matt McGloin, an undrafted free agent. He has actually played decent, but got exposed against an above average Jet defense last week. Well, K.C. has a much better than average defense and I look for it to really exploit the Raiders deficiencies on offense. The Chiefs have also looked far more explosive on offense lately with RB Jamaal Charles just running rampant this season gaining over 1100 yards on the ground and being just as dangerous catching passes out of the backfield. Even star wide receiver Dwayne Bowe who has largely been quiet this season has stepped it up lately catching 3 TD’s the last 4 games. These two teams met earlier this year with the Chiefs covering a -7.5 spread in a 24-7 win. I see this game playing out much the same way. Even though this game is being played in Oakland away from the Chiefs Arrowhead Stadium, K.C. has been money on the road covering 5 out of 6 games. The Raiders are a far more game team then their 4-9 record would suggest, but unfortunately it takes talent as well to win in this league. The Chiefs are just better on both sides of the ball. I hope the Chiefs continue to be overlooked even after they trounce these Raiders, it will keep us in the money with future point spreads.