Well we finally had a little slip up this past Monday night but it was just a minor blip to the big picture, and that picture is.....we are kicking ass! The last couple of weeks have really put us in the drivers seat and has gotten our bankroll healthy. This week is certainly predicted to be more of the same. We have 3 games today that I feel great about that should continue our upward trend of cash growth. By the time this week is through we have the potential for the chance to top even our incredible score of this past week. Great plays today, but stay tuned we may have something special to end week 14 tomorrow. But enough of that, lets just win today's wagers and keep on rolling!
For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here's how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of $1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide $1000 by 100 (=$10) and multiply that by 5 (=$50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.
| Thursday's results : | 0.0 units won : -2.0 units lost | |
| Day's total plus 10% house vig on losses : | -2.2 units | |
| Total to date : | +20.6 units |
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Detroit Lions +2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles : Bet 7 units | Click Here |
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Detroit Lions +2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles : Bet 7 units | Click Here |
Result:
This is a game that features quite a bit of talent for both of these teams, which is why both of these teams are firmly entrenched in the playoff hunt at the moment. I believe the difference here is that the Lions to me are a more legitimate team while the Eagles while not a bad team, are more a product of who they have played more than how they play. With the NFC East being a weak division this year the Eagles have enjoyed a fairly soft schedule and yet they still haven’t separated themselves from the pack. As a matter of fact they find themselves trailing in their division behind Dallas largely due to the 17-3 loss they had at the had at the hand of the Cowboys. The other tough team they played, the Denver Broncos, they might want to forget that game as they got crushed 52-20 in that one. I’m not saying the Eagles are slouches, they really seem to have found the answer to their offense with Nick Foles at QB throwing 19 TD’s with no picks since taking over. Also they have the number 2 rushing offense in the league led by their RB LeSean McCoy. But they are meeting a Lions team that can match them pretty much in every offensive category and then some. Although Lions QB Matt Stafford has a moments where he has thrown a costly INT, he has the ability and the poise to overcome his mistakes and make huge plays. Evidence of that came in the Lions dramatic come from behind win against the Cowboys. And with Stafford throwing to arguably the best and most unstoppable receiver in the league in Calvin Johnson, there is never a point in the game or on the field that they are not a play away from scoring. Lions RB Reggie Bush also gives this same dynamic as well every time he touches the ball. The difference in this game could come down to the Lions defensive superiority over Philly’s. Detroit’s defensive front can really get after the passer and should disrupt the Eagles attack enough to cause the Lions to take control of this game. Also bad weather is expected so if there is any slowing of the offensive attack on either side, the defensive edge of Detroit will be that much more magnified. Either way, bad weather or not, Detroit is the better team and should be favored. Getting points for the Lions in this spot makes this a very valuable play for the underdog Lions.
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New England Patriots -10.5 over Cleveland Browns: Bet 7 units | Click Here |
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New England Patriots -10.5 over Cleveland Browns: Bet 7 units | Click Here |
Result:
It’s going to be a cold and nasty day up in New England for this game, and that is just the way the Patriots like it. As much as Peyton Manning gets criticized for playing poorly in cold weather, Patriot QB Tom Brady is quite the opposite, he thrives in it, and so does his team. Being regarded as maybe the best cold weather QB in the league, Brady will get a chance to prove it again this week. The thing of it is the Patriots have gotten healthier, getting all there important pieces needed to make that incredible offensive machine everyone has come to expect. So as the temps have started dropping, the Pats have just been getting hotter. The last 4 games New England has averaged over 35 points a game, and Brady has thrown for 10 TD’s against only 2 picks. Getting their star tight end Rob Gronkowski back has had a lot to do with that along with WR Danny Amendola getting healthy and a very strong running game. The Browns have a fairly good defense but against this Patriot offense with just too many weapons they will be spread too thin to offer any real resistance. The Browns on the other hand will be hard pressed to match the Patriots offensive firepower as they have struggled to keep a QB on the field with any regularity this season. Jason Campbell is getting the start today and with him being questionable all week due to a concussion, this was their best option. The wheels have fallen off for the Browns as they have lost 6 of their last 7 and their last 3 in a row staright up and aginst the spread. Coming into New England and facing a Patriot team that still has a lot to play for this season as they are still possibly shooting for the top seed and a bye in the playoffs is no way to try to get on track if you’re Cleveland. At home this year the Patriots have been a perfect 6-0 going 5-1 against the spread. This has all the makings of a real blowout, and I am not the least bit concerned of the double digit number the Patriots need to cover. I believe the Patriots hang an easy 40 on the scoreboard and double up the Browns in the process.
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Miami Dolphins +3.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers : Bet 5 units | Click Here |
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Miami Dolphins +3.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers : Bet 5 units | Click Here |
Result:
This game has huge playoff implications for both teams. As of right now they are both on the bubble looking in trying to get a win to get them in position for a wildcard berth. A loss to either team at this point of the season would all but ruin their chances at post season play. Lucky for the Dolphins they are catching the Steelers at a vulnerable time with Pittsburgh’s offensive line being a mess due to injuries. That spells trouble for the Steelers O line that needs to protect against a Dolphin pass rush that has had multiple sacks in 11 out of their last 12 games. Miami has also not given up 300 yards of offense in 5 of their last 7 games. This Miami defense of late would be a handful for any offense to deal with let alone one with severely banged up QB protection like the Steelers’. On offense Miami’s QB Ryan Tannehill has played very good lately and has protected the ball much better. Last week he had his best game of the year against a solid Jet defense throwing for 331 yards, but more importantly the Dolphins protected him well not allowing him to be sacked for the 1st game this season. The Steelers defense is okay but is no longer the elite squad it once was. I expect Miami to make some big time plays with their WR’s Wallace and Hartline. Meanwhile Tannehill while not known to be a great running QB, is actually is pretty fleet of foot and is very capable to run for some key yardage and first downs helping to keep drives alive. While Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is a big strong guy that is tough to take down, I do believe he will have a long day with his pass protection depleted. Look for Big Ben to be scrambling and trying to extend plays when his protection breaks down, while that has worked for him at times, against this defense I can see it leading to some game changing mistakes. I believe Miami is a marginally better team than Pittsburgh at this point in the season, I’m extremely pleased the line here does not agree with me as it puts us in a prime spot.
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