Aramon's 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 5 (Sunday)

Well we are in the money for the season, and with a 4-2 record last week we pulled down a very nice +9.3 unit win for the Week 4 games. With a quarter of the regular season gone it’s now time to take the kid gloves off as the teams have given us a month of info to go on so we can confidently weigh out these wagers at their max potential.  This starts off my favorite part of the football season as the teams start regressing and progressing to their mean.  This makes a much more accurate assessment  process which should for all intent and purpose, lead us to nice profits. That’s what this is all about so with that in mind I have found some great wagering opportunities this Sunday and even have a powerful upset pick. So lets get this train rolling for another big profit week!

Dallas Cowboys +7.5 over the Denver Broncos   Bet 5 Units

Okay I know many of you are thinking I’m crazy for betting against a team that is 4-0, is led by one of the all time great QB’s in Peyton Manning, who just happens to be having his best year ever so far with 16 TD’s and 0 Int’s……..well yeah, but that’s my job. I bet with the real value of the match up and do not follow the public popularity contests, and this is a public charged betting line if I’ve ever saw one. Lets look at it closer. First off, Denver has been amazing so far and they are a great team. But this is a matchup that while Denver may still get the edge on, is far closer than more than a touchdown handicap.  It starts with Dallas being 2-0 at home this year, that’s good but there is far more.  Dallas QB Tony Romo has been quite good himself this year making far fewer mistakes than normal and throwing 8 td’s himself this year with only 1 int. They have also added a key component that has been missing from their game in the past and that is the running game. With Dallas RB Demarco Murray averaging just about 5 yards per carry that can be the key to slowing down this offensive machine of the Broncos. It’s not in Dallas’  defense so much as it will be in their ability to keep the ball away from Denver, that actually may keep the Cowboys in this game throughout. Most teams fall behind and become one dimensional passing teams and play out of their comfort zone and become predictable, and in turn easy to beat. Well in this Dallas team even if the run does falter, they have their absolute superstar wide receiver Dez Bryant for Romo to throw to. I predict a HUGE day from Bryant as he is virtually uncoverable down in the red zone. Also look for veteran tight end Jason Witten to keep the chains moving.  One last thing to remember, this will be by far the best team the Broncos have faced this season. While Dallas isn’t perfect, they are far better than 2-14 combined record of the last 4 opponents fed to the Bronco’s this year. No way this line should be this high, but thankfully for us it is. Maybe this week Denver shows its first cracks in the armor.  

  

Seattle Seahawks -1 over Colts   Bet 6 units

Thank goodness the Seahawks are still perceived to be a shaky road team as the line on this game has dropped all week from -3 down to a -1. That is a huge value moving off a key number of 3 and putting the Seahawks in the same position as last week, basically just needing a small win to cover.( a 1 point Seattle win would constitute a push, not a win, but not a loss either which does hold huge value over the -3 field goal necessity win). However looking at the Seahawks of late, they have performed just about as good on the road winning their last 6 games against the spread as a visitor. While the Colts have yet to win at home this season and are just 1-4 against the spread versus winning teams in their last 5 games. The Colts are a very good team with a great young quarterback in Andrew Luck,  but this defense is like no other out there in the league, and again I predict Seattle’s corners are going to really stymie what Andrew Luck can do with the passing game. Seattle’s defensive secondary while having huge corners in Sherman and Browner, also run highly effective and complex schemes adding to a nightmare of their big physical play. Add to this the Seahawks have got their starting defensive end Bruce Irvin coming back this week off of suspension and the pass rush just got better to compliment a shutdown secondary. I do like the Colts and I do think their time is arriving, but not this week, not against what I believe to be the most balanced and best team in the NFL. It’s a good team against a great team, and all the great team has to do is eek out a win to cover. Big value here

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Green Bay Packers/Detroit Lions take the over total 54   Bet 7 units

This  should be a fun game to watch between these two division rivals if you like offense. This game may end up being more like a video game score by the time the scoreboard cools down. The Packers have gone over the total in every one of their games this year and expect the trend to continue when the Lions come to town led by big armed QB Matthew Stafford with wide receiver Megatron (Calvin Johnson) and rejuvinated  all purpose running back Reggie Bush. While both the Packers and Lions are loaded on the offensive side of the ball, what makes this game and over the total dream is, they can give em up as fast as they put em up.  While Detroit was impressive last week in scoring 40 points against the Bears, they still gave up 32 in a game they pretty much controlled. And while the Packers have one of the top passers in the league in Aaron Rodgers along with an array of talent on the offensive side of the ball, their Achilles heel has been their inability to shut anyone down on defense. Both of Green Bay’s losses this year have seen them give up 34 points in each game. Seeing the Packers rank near the bottom of the league in pass defense at 28^th, and the Lions have protected their QB so well only allowing 3 sacks all season, I expect the Lions to get plenty of offense out of their passing game which can lead to numerous and quick scoring. This is a reason why all 3 of Green Bay’s games have hit the over total, big offense, and a defense that will bend enough for most teams to contribute to a high score. This game has potential to hit the over in 2 ways as I see it. One team jumps out to a big lead, and the team behind airs it out against a soft defense playing in garbage time, or most likely these 2 offensive machines go score for score until the end of the game. However,I do not see this game being any kind of defensive battle, nor any team being completely shut down or shutout. I have this game pushing over 60 points fairly easy with an eye on 70 for a comfortable win on our wager.